Greenham Stakes Preview: All eyes on Expert Stoute

Last year’s report of Barney Roy’s two-length defeat of Dream Castle in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury read: “The Greenham, in contrast to the Fred Darling, has a tremendous roll of honour, the last decade or so littered with top-notch milers, from Frankel down, as well as an outstanding sprinter in Muhaarar, and it's likely that the first two in this running will go on to success at the highest level.”

And so it proved, at least to some extent. Barney Roy was second to Churchill in the 2,000 Guineas before reversing the form in style when victorious in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, though Dream Castle regressed after finishing fifth in the first classic of the season at Newmarket.

Both horses had ‘large Ps’ attached to their ratings ahead of Newbury, while six of the 15 entries for this year’s renewal of the Greenham have a ‘ small p’ attached to their Timeform rating – denoting that significant improvement is expected.

All eyes on the favourite

Amongst those is Expert Eye, market leader not just for Saturday’s race but prominent in the betting (best price of 10/1) for the 2,000 Guineas itself. Out of a half-sister to the smart winner up to 1m (awarded both 1000 Guineas and Poule D'Essai des Pouliches) Special Duty, Expert Eye created an excellent impression when winning his first two starts, a minor event over C&D and the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood (by four and a half lengths from Zaman).

Expert Eye looks very useful as he wins the Qatar Vintage Stakes under Andrea Atzeni in some style #QGF | Results ▶️https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/Hkxgt30eZL

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) August 1, 2017

He was most disappointing when last of nine behind U S Navy Flag in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on his final start, pulling too hard after being restless in stalls (reportedly finished lame on right-hind), but that clearly wasn’t his running and he remains open to improvement this term.

The equally well-bred Glorious Journey - by Dubawi out of the 2012 Coronation Stakes winner Fallen For You - cost 2.6 million guineas as a yearling. He made hard work of winning on debut at Newmarket last June, but looked more professional when quickly making a successful step up into pattern company at Saint-Cloud on his next start. He is engaged (with first-time cheekpieces) in the Craven Stakes on Thursday, though, so is unlikely to line up here.

Hughes’ contender

Glendevon confirmed his ample debut promise when winning a 12-runner minor event at Kempton last time by five lengths from Moqarrar. The second and fourth have franked the form when winning since, while the third home showed improved form when filling the same position in a strong Lingfield maiden in October. Glendevon, who has since been bought into by Cheveley Park Stud, looks the type to go on improving and is not one to take too lightly here on his first turf start.

Qaysar was successful on both starts since his debut (second to Key Victory at Newmarket), in minor events at Kempton in November and March (pushed out to beat Emblazoned by one and a half lengths). He should improve further, though also has an entry in a 7f handicap here on Friday.

The Salisbury winner Bullingdon (gelded since), and impressive Doncaster winner Raid are the other ‘p’ horses, with the latter of more interest. He is a half-brother to several winners, including the smart 1¼m-1½m winner Grendisar, and looked a useful prospect when beating a couple of subsequent winners on Town Moor in November.

Making Headway

The William Haggas trained Headway has a ‘+’ on his figure, which suggests he may be better than his current rating. He did well to reel in Rufus King in a slowly run race at Lingfield last time, recording an impressive closing two-furlong sectional of 21.40 sec, resulting in a significant upgrade on the timefigure. He may lack the class of some of his rivals, but there was no denying the impression he made there.

Mill Reef Stakes winner James Garfield (by three quarters of a length from Invincible Army) wasn’t seen to best effect when a respectable tenth to Mendelssohn in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar on his final start last term, while Hey Gaman’s three wins last season included a listed race over C&D (by short head from Red Mist), though he produced his best effort when second in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster (neck behind Seahenge) on his final start.

Seahenge takes the Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes for Aidan O'Brien! pic.twitter.com/eOqqMJEJmW

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) September 16, 2017

Of the others, a 10-race campaign seemed too much for Cardsharp as a juvenile, but he made no impression in the Prix Djebel at Deauville earlier this month on his return to action, so, along with Fighting Irish, who won a three-runner Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte on his final start last season, he is fairly readily opposed.

Conclusion

Impressive Lingfield winner Headway is the one for those looking to oppose Expert Eye, but that seems self-defeating to us. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt is well clear on ratings, is open to more improvement, and looks the one horse in the race who could go on to hold his own at the top table through the course of the season. Anything at odds against could prove to be a good price.

Recommendation

Back Expert Eye to win Saturday's Greenham Stakes at Newbury at 6/4