Greatwood Hurdle 2016: McManus talking the Lingo again?

Unlike in Ireland, where the best racing is often saved for Sunday, this weekend’s Greatwood Hurdle card at Cheltenham is one of the few English meetings on that day of the week which really gets excitement levels peaking. It’s normally freezing cold, but that merely offers racegoers a legitimate reason for hot alcoholic drinks and those watching at home the perfect excuse to hoist those slippered feet onto the coffee table. The grass doesn’t need cutting and it’ll be too wet to do other outside jobs, so the top-class racing comes guilt-free for once.

Well Chief (2009), Wishfull Thinking (2012), Uxizandre (2014) and Sprinter Sacre last season are all notable recent winners of the Grade 2 Shloer Chase, though only the latter ran to a top-class level when winning. There are no high profile superstars in this year’s renewal – with dual Champion Chase third Special Tiara the pick of the bunch – however it could be an opportunity for the six-year-old Fox Norton, an emphatic handicap winner at the track last time and as low as 20/1 for the Champion Chase, to impress his credentials for March. Other interesting entries include 2013 Arkle winner Simonsig, whose return from injury has been stop-start but not without promise, and last season’s impressive Game Spirit winner Top Gamble.

As if that puzzle wasn’t enough to get you scratching your head, punters have the alluring Greatwood Hurdle to untangle. Winter Escape, one of Timeform’s Fifty to Follow (which included a 7/1 winner last week, available for just £9.95 here) for this season, heads the betting. Alan King’s charge is unbeaten in three starts , including the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in February, and could easily turn out to be too good for his rivals here from a BHA mark of 142. However, the market has taken no chances, and better value lies elsewhere.

Modus, like Winter Escape, is owned by J.P. McManus, and he fared best of those held up and shaped best at the weights given the way things panned out when third at Ascot last month. His owner is looking for his first win in the race since Lingo's 2005 victory and he looks to have a strong hand on Sunday. However, those who follow Irish racing closely and are familiar with the yellow hat of McManus’ silks will be fully aware that mass targeting of the big races is not an alien concept to the owner. As well as the aforementioned pair, the famous green and gold could be carried aboard top-weight Hargam and the lightly-weighted Consul de Thaix, and it is the latter who makes most appeal at current odds of 33/1.

Trained by Nicky Henderson, Consul de Thaix is a half-brother to the six-time winner Volnay de Thaix, who favoured flat tracks and never seemed to get up the famous Cheltenham hill. However, his sibling looked more at home here when a three-length third in the Finesse on his British/stable debut in January, shaping well on his first outing since leaving Francois Nicolle. Though below that level when 10^th in the Triumph Hurdle seven weeks later, he faced a stiff task and wasn’t unduly punished after his effort flattened out. Henderson has three entries in total, but it’s worth pointing out that his two horses that finished second in recent years (Cash and Go in 2012 and Vaniteux in 2014) were both making their seasonal reappearance; only Consul de Thaix (who is still a novice, incidentally) fits that bill this year. His trainer has suggested that he needs soft ground, but plenty of rain is forecast for the area this week.

Ben Pauling’s Leoncavallo was fifth in the Triumph and shaped encouragingly when 11 lengths second to subsequent Elite Hurdle winner Sceau Royal on his seasonal reappearance/stable debut here in October. However, Tommy Silver, who was two places behind in March, is preferred as a second selection. Part-owned by Alex Ferguson and Betfred co-founder Peter Done, Tommy Silver won a listed juvenile at Musselburgh last season before finishing seventh in the Triumph and he shaped as if needing the run when 17 lengths fifth to Garde La Victoire in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last time. Modus is the stable’s number one hope in the race on the face of it, however the case for Tommy Silver is emboldened by his trainer’s record with four-year-olds in this race. Brampour (2011) and Old Guard (2015) both won, while Sametegal (2013) was second; all three were priced between 8/1 and 12/1, and it would be no surprise to see Tommy Silver’s odds contract significantly should he be declared on Friday.

Recommended bets:

Back Consul de Thaix each way in the Greatwood Hurdle at 33/1

Back Tommy Silver each way in the Greatwood Hurdle at 33/1