Grand National Preview: Judge and Jury

Saturday's Randox Health Grand National – which will be the 172^nd and most valuable staging of the world’s biggest horse racing event – is one of the few races where everyone, from jockeys, trainers, owners and punters, holds their breath and crosses their fingers at the first fence.

Remarkably, all 40 runners and riders navigated the first seven fences, including Becher’s Brook, in 2013, but supporters of Perfect Candidate and Blaklion were not so fortunate 12 months ago, with the first-named falling and bringing down the latter at the very first obstacle.

As the graph below shows, it’s rare that the first fence claims no victims, though the changes made to both the fences and the start of the race (shorter run to the first means they jump it at a slower pace in theory) since 2013 means that the odds of a repeat of the 2002 nine-horse pileup have been lessened.

Only two renewals this century have seen all horses make it past the first, suggesting that those ‘All horses to negotiate the first’ specials are probably worth avoiding.

So, what is the best bet?

The official BHA handicapper – former Timeform employee Martin Greenwood – suggests that last year’s winner Tiger Roll is well-treated ahead of his title defence.

“I have possibly underestimated Tiger Roll’s win in the Cross Country, putting him up another 8 lb to a rating of 167. His hurdle success before Cheltenham (the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan on February 17) suggested that he was on the way back and his Cheltenham performance has backed that up.”

It will come as no surprise that Tiger Roll is high up on Timeform’s own weight-adjusted ratings, his Cheltenham effort bordering on high class and as much as 6 lb better than his winning effort in this race last year.

Of course, this is a unique test, but, having shown he has all the tools for the job (only idled late on last year having hit the front going very well) and been better than ever this season, it’s only his prohibitive price that is a sticking point when selecting a best bet for this year’s renewal.

At a general 7/2 he’s opposable, but, if he drifts on the day to 5/1 or bigger, then that becomes a much tougher question to answer.

Tiger Roll wins the 2018 Grand National#ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/a6VpGH8mu0

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) April 14, 2018

With Bristol de Mai heading for the Betway Bowl instead, the weights are now topped by last year’s fourth Anibale Fly. He ran a blinder that day, especially as he took the scenic route for much of the way under Barry Geraghty, and looks a major player again, still well in at weights despite heading the handicap after a career-best second to Al Boum Photo in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month.

“I’ll run as many as I can. I’ve won it before and it would be nice to win it again. Basically I’ll run whatever gets in. If I can get 10 to 15 in, I’ll run them all.”

Gordon Elliott, who said the above in February, ran three horses last year, and while Ucello Conti failed to complete (still in with a chance of a place at least when unseating his rider four out), the then-13-year-old Bless The Wings provided the yard with further riches when finishing third. He might be among ‘Elliott’s Army’ on Saturday, and it’s worth remembering his form figures prior to last year’s race (F-PU) before discounting him from this year’s renewal after two modest runs in 2019.

Noble Endeavor, General Principle and Jury Duty are the most interesting of the yard’s other potential runners, though.

Noble Endeavor was a smart handicap chaser in 2016/17, when winning the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown. He missed the following season and hasn't threatened this term in either the Becher Chase at this course – where he was given a quiet ride and a nice sighter of the fences – or the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, but he looks to have been targeted at this race.

General Principle won the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse (by a head from Isleofhopendreams) in 2018 and returned to his best when four and three quarter lengths third to Dounikos in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown in February. He made late mistakes when pulled up in the Ultima last time, but was in the process of running a big race up until that point and is not one to rule out from his current mark.

Jury Duty has already got one Grand National on his CV, having won the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in America in October. He proved better still back over fences when returning from a break with a cosy win in a minor event at Down Royal (by six and a half lengths from stablemate Mala Beach) last time, successfully conceding weight all round. An assured jumper, he makes plenty of appeal at these weights, with 9 lb less (physically) on his back than when a beaten favourite in the National Hunt Chase last season.

The finish to last year’s Grand National was a fitting representation of the current state of horse racing in Ireland, with runners trained by Elliott and Willie Mullins a long way ahead of the rest, though it was a mirror of the Irish trainers’ championship which has so far gone the way of Mullins.

The 12-time title winner has only landed the Grand National once – with Hedgehunter in 2005 – but he has several leading contenders this time around, including last year’s runner-up Pleasant Company. He was back to his best that day, jumping superbly in the main and rallying well to only go down by a closing head margin, and though not at his best so far this term, he is capable of a much better show here, for all that a 7 lb higher mark makes life tougher.

The shortest-priced Closutton runner, however, is Rathvinden. He won five times as a novice in 2017/18, most notably the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (by half a length from Ms Parfois), and made light of a 10-month absence when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse (by three and a half lengths from Alpha des Obeaux) in February, taking command before the last and well on top at the finish. He’s another who looks well treated at the weights, a comment that also applies to stablemate Pairofbrowneyes, who has won the Leinster National Handicap Chase (for the second successive year) since the weights for this race were released. That was a career-best effort, and he’s not one to take lightly here.

Pairofbrowneyes follows up last years win in the Toalsbet Bookmakers Leinster National Handicap Chase for Paul Townend and Willie Mullins 👏 pic.twitter.com/nTv4c3GNrP

— Naas Racecourse (@NaasRacecourse) March 10, 2019

The Irish challenge, which may also include the likes of Mall Dini (who has long looked a likely type for this race, for all that his hold-up style of racing may make life tough) and Baie des Iles (who was given a much more negative ride than is usually the case when 12^th last year, and was still in front when falling in the race won by Jury Duty last month), is strong, but this race has been far from an Irish benefit in recent years.

Twelve of the 18 winners this century have been trained in Britain, including eight in a row from 2008 to 2015, and this year’s home team is led by horses owned by proud local businessman Trevor Hemmings. His tactic of purchasing likely Grand National contenders has led to three wins in the race, and Vintage Clouds and Lake View Lad appear to hold similar claims to each other in this year’s renewal. The pair finished second and third, respectively, in the Ultima at Cheltenham, with Lake View Lad – who had already won the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby this season – giving Vintage Clouds 11 lb. On the same terms here, both are considered very realistic contenders, with the latter’s wind op prior to Cheltenham appearing to help his finishing effort and giving plenty of hope that he’ll see out the longer trip here.

With Blaklion sold over the winter, and Ballyoptic and Cogry – if he gets a run – given minor claims at best, Nigel Twiston-Davies – who won the race with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002) – relies on a relatively new recruit of his own: Go Conquer. He proved better than ever when winning the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster (by six lengths from Monbeg River) last time, typically jumping/travelling well. He was badly hampered on his only previous try over these fences, and whilst there are some doubts about his stamina over this far, his generally sound jumping should stand him in good stead.

David Pipe is another Grand National-winning trainer, and Ramses de Teillee is the only seven-year-old still engaged in the race. No runner from that age group has won the race since World War II, but Ramses de Teillee was a good one and a quarter lengths second to Elegant Escape in the Welsh Grand National and probably should have won when three-quarter length second to Robinsfirth in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last time, making his effort a bit too soon, so has strong form claims ahead of this year’s renewal. 

One For Arthur won this race in 2017 when coming from well off the pace to beat Cause of Causes by four and a half lengths. He missed the whole of last season and has unseated both starts this term, so hasn’t had the smoothest preparation.

Walk In The Mill was well backed when winning the Becher Chase here (by four and a half lengths from Vieux Lion Rouge) in December, jumping soundly in the main and suited by the emphasis on stamina. He’s been kept ticking over since with a couple of thirds in novice hurdles and is certainly one to consider back over these fences, with the longer trip likely to be within range on the evidence of his Becher success. Ultragold is also a proven winner over these fences, winning the last two renewals of the Topham Chase at this meeting, and is respected if swerving that race in favour of this, for all that his stamina for this much longer trip is far from assured.

Perhaps less appealing amongst the home team are Rock The Kasbah and Step Back. The former put up his best effort this season when winning a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham (by one and a quarter lengths from Royal Vacation) in November, but was below form there last time, while Step Back ended his novice campaign with a win in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown (by 13 lengths from Rock The Kasbah) last April. He’s yet to reach that level in a couple of starts three months apart this term, and his tendency to jump right is not ideal round here.

Conclusion

Rule The World was a maiden over fences when winning in 2016, so Mall Dini’s lack of success as a chaser shouldn’t be held against him, so, like compatriots Anibale Fly and Rathvinden, a big effort is expected from off the pace. Prominent racers who make the shortlist include – in order of preference –  Tiger Roll, Lake View Lad, Pleasant Company, Walk In The Mill and Go Conquer, but the vote of confidence goes to the 25/1-shot Jury Duty. He didn’t appear to stay when beaten in the four-miler at Cheltenham last season, but the combination of better ground, a nice racing weight and another year under his belt should mean Saturday’s extreme distance is within range.

Recommended bet:

Back Jury Duty each-way in Saturday’s Grand National at 25/1