Grand National 2017 Preview: Definitely Red

Last year’s Grand National winner was a 13-race maiden over fences, sent off at 33/1, and a good result for the bookmakers judged by the relative silence that greeted his storming run to the front just after the Elbow. The victory of Rule The World helped underline the unofficial tag line of the race as the ultimate lottery, however the 10-year-old’s win was a victory for those who subscribe to the trendy themes of winning age groups (nine of the last 10 winners have been aged 9-11) and number of days since a horse’s preceding run (six of the last 10 winners have had a break of between 26-50 days).

Applying the trends, stats and figures for this year’s renewal is better left to Simon Rowlands, who will preview the 2017 Grand National on Thursday, however it’s worth noting that the Timeform weight-adjusted top-rated, Definitly Red, falls into both categories. He is a three-time winner this season, over hurdles at Carlisle and over fences at Wetherby (had Blaklion back in third in the Rowland Meyrick) and Doncaster, and he produced another career-best when beating The Last Samuri by 14 lengths in the Grimthorpe Chase for his latest success. The Brian Ellison-trained eight-year-old is usually a sound jumper and looks very much a leading contender.

The Last Samuri has barely put a foot wrong in his career so far, and jumped superbly when six lengths second to Rule The World in last year's Grand National. He was a close third behind Vieux Lion Rouge and Highland Lodge back over these fences in the Becher Chase in December and though he has a lot more weight to carry this year, he is capable of going close again. The form of last year’s race is also set to be represented by Vieux Lion Rouge, who was an impressive winner of the Grand National Trial at Haydock (Blaklion second) after winning the Becher, and he has every chance of going much closer than last year (faded to seventh) when still a novice. The 2015 eighth Cause of Causes, who was given plenty to do that year, missed the cut for the 2016 renewal but was teed up to perfection by Gordon Elliott to win the Cross Country at Cheltenham last month and there’s every chance that he will receive a more positive ride this time around. Bless The Wings chased home his stablemate in the Cross Country and, despite being relatively unfamiliar with the top spot in the winner’s enclosure, looks capable of a big run if making the 40-runner cut.

The Young Master has looked an ideal type for the Grand National for some time and he could easily reward the patience of connections who swerved a tilt at this race last term. Now eight, The Young Master was beaten when falling in the Becher on his reappearance (well held over hurdles next time), but was much better when sixth in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham since and he is certainly worth a try over this longer distance. That comment also applies to More of That who won the World Hurdle in 2014 and hasn’t had much racing since over fences. Though without a win since his second novice start, he looked back on good terms with himself before falling at the last in the Irish Gold Cup and was far from disgraced when sixth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time. He’s one of several who are ‘well-in’ at the weights following performances since the Grand National weights were announced. Other notable ‘well-in’ horses include Definitly Red and Saphir du Rheu (fifth in Cheltenham Gold Cup last month).

Blaklion is a reliable sort who won three of his seven starts as a novice chaser last term, including the RSA. He was third to Definitly Red in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby before proving better than ever when second to Vieux Lion Rouge at Haydock last time. He’s a sound-jumping stayer so has realistic claims of being involved. Carlingford Lough is a top-class chaser who has won the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown twice but could manage only fourth to Sizing John in the latest renewal after being outpaced. He looks sure to run well but will have to shoulder top weight – Red Rum was the last horse to carry that burden to victory 40 years ago!

Ucello Conti is yet to win since coming from France but has produced several good efforts in competitive handicap chases, overcoming a bad mistake when sixth in last year's Grand National. He was placed in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran for the second year running in January and his latest start, when fourth in the Leinster National at Naas, should have brought him on with this race in mind. Others that need a strong mention include Ziga Boy, who may have done his winning mainly at Doncaster but is a bold-jumping front runner who strikes as the type to take well to this challenge, and Double Shuffle who has progressed since being stepped up to 3m and wearing a hood, but who has a big question mark over him staying this far. Pleasant Company, who beat Thunder and Roses when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February, and the Becher fifth One For Arthur, who relished his first try over a marathon trip when easily winning the Classic Chase at Warwick, also tick plenty of boxes.

This preview could just rumble on, making a case for most of the top 50 in the weights, however Definitly Red has earned his place at the top of both the ratings and the betting. At 12/1 he’s still a fair price and he looks to have the most solid profile of the leading contenders. Expect his price to contract significantly nearer the race, as those with an affinity to Liverpool FC combine with those who reflect that it’s 40 years since another famous ‘red’ winner – Red Rum’s third success in 1977. The 14/1-chance Cause of Causes is also interesting as a proven stayer who has experience of the fences and arrives here on the back of a good win in the Cross Country at Cheltenham – his trainer is approaching genius status - however his price is now probably about right. Another rising star of the training world, Neil Mulholland, trains The Young Master who looks a better-value bet at 20/1. He got some useful experience of these fences in the Becher and his sixth in the Ultima at Cheltenham should have set him up perfectly for this. Finally, Ziga Boy likes flat tracks and good ground and he should give a bold show from his light weight – he looks overpriced at 50/1.

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Recommended Bets (all NRNB) 

Definitly Red win at 12/1 

The Young Master each-way at 20/1

Ziga Boy each-way at 50/1

*Please note, since this preview was written Ziga Boy has been ruled out of the race due to a leg injury

Read Simon Rowlands' 2017 Randox Health Grand National Trends Preview

Read Jamie Lynch's 2017 Randox Health Grand National Runner Guide