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Previewing a four-runner race from a pace angle may seem like a bit of a cop-out, however the Gordon Stakes is a tightly-knit affair and tactics could prove crucial in determining the winner.
As the Early Position Map below shows, the race likely revolves around the Timeform top-rated Dee Ex Bee.
The Mark Johnston-trained colt, who produced easily his best performance of the season when second in the Derby at Epsom (one and a half lengths behind Masar) in June, is the likeliest horse to go forward, though it’s not guaranteed. The colour scale represents the probability of the horse recording that EPF; deeper reds are higher probability, while white indicates lower probability. The black point is the predicted EPF.
Dee Ex Bee hasn’t actually made the running (EPF figure of 1) since finishing third in a listed race at Haydock on the third start of his juvenile season, however it’s clear that this lengthy colt has plenty of stamina reserves, likely to stay further than a mile and a half in time. He was suited by the searching test at Epsom, but neither of his starts since the Derby have allowed his stamina to come into play to the same extent, and he was again made to look short of pace when only third of six in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last time.
Kew Gardens and Ryan Moore win the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris for Aidan O'Brien! @paris_longchamp pic.twitter.com/edCuNzQu3k
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) July 14, 2018
Jockey Silvestre de Sousa faces a dilemma: does he ride Dee Ex Bee more aggressively to make best use of the horse’s stamina, or will that set the race up well for his main rival (on paper) Cross Counter?
Cross Counter produced the 14th-fastest three-furlong finishing time over a mile and a half at Ascot this season when coming from last to first there last time, the only performance on the list produced in a handicap.
What made that effort even more meritorious (and relevant to Saturday’s race), is that it came in a contest that was far from strongly-run – the finishing speed was slower than par, so the pace was on the weaker side of even. The pace forecast for Saturday’s race? Very Weak.
It’s no surprise that the progressive Cross Counter has a good turn of foot over this trip, as he is by Teofilo out of a six-furlong/seven-furlong winner, and he looks the type who will go on improving.
Cocked Hat Stakes fourth Bombyx (failed to settle off a slow pace that day) comes into this race on the back of a facile minor event win at Doncaster. Sent off a shade of odds-on, he was always in control that day, but the second has since let the form down. While Bombyx is progressive, this is a stronger race and it will demand further improvement.
Sun Maiden completes the field. She is the best-bred of the lot, a Frankel filly who is a half-sister to several winners, including the high-class winner Midday, and not one to discount here despite having plenty to find on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings. She won a minor event at Salisbury (by 12 lengths from White Light) in May, and improved again when five and a half lengths third to Magic Wand in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, not so well positioned as the first two.
Magic Wand conjures up a win in the Ribblesdale Stakes at @Ascot!
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) June 21, 2018
...and Ryan Moore has his 51st #RoyalAscot win!
Watch LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/wk0hjhwlma
She is open to further improvement but didn’t look the finished article last time and may be more of a Park Hill filly, the type to be suited by the longer trip there rather than a potential dawdle here.
Conclusion
There’s a chance that Silvestre de Sousa could be caught between a rock and a hard place on the favourite Dee Ex Bee, so preference is for Cross Counter who – unlike Dee Ex Bee - has proven he can put a race to bed from an ordinary pace. He’s worth backing at 11/4 to continue his progression and make a successful step up from handicaps.
Recommended bets:
Back Cross Counter to win Saturday's Gordon Stakes at 11/4
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