Gold Cup Preview: Stradivarius can strike for Gosden

The Gold Cup is the traditional highlight on Ladies’ Day and was won 12 months ago by Big Orange following a protracted duel with the 2016 winner, Order of St George, in what was widely-regarded as one of the races of the season.

Sadly, Big Orange is missing from this year’s line-up after suffering a suspensory injury, but there is still a high-class renewal in prospect, with Order of St George set to face off against some new pretenders in a small (the smallest since 2012) but select field.

It was relatively easy to assess how the 2017 renewal was going to play out with Big Orange in the field – Michael Bell’s charge had recorded In-Play positional figures of 1 or 2 in 18 of his 23 starts going into the race. Always prominent, he and James Doyle took up a lead they would not relinquish as the runners passed the winning post for the first time, with runner-up Order of St George, by contrast, held up in the last four places by Ryan Moore.

It is not quite so simple a task trying to figure out where the pace is going to come from in this year’s renewal, however. Torcedor looks perhaps the most likely to do the early donkey work, having proved better than ever under more aggressive tactics when winning the Sagaro Stakes over two miles here last time, making the running for just the second time in his career to date and staying on strongly at the finish.

Fifth in this contest after being ridden in midfield 12 months ago, he looks sure to give another good account if adopting more prominent tactics this time round, for all that he has a bit to find with the principals on form.

Very impressive from Torcedor, who becomes the first Irish-trained winner of the
Longines Sagaro Stakes

Results ▶️ https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/p8p9Wfv9uY

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) May 2, 2018

Can O’Brien charge restore Order?

Given the way the race developed last year, Order or St George is arguably unlucky not to be bidding for a hat-trick of Gold Cup wins on Thursday, having conceded first run to Big Orange before staying on strongly to be beaten just a short head. He added further big-race wins to his tally in the Irish St Leger at the Curragh and the Long Distance Cup here later that campaign, and has looked as good as ever in winning both his starts so far this term.

Some 5 lb clear on Timeform’s weight adjusted-ratings, it would be no surprise if he were ridden a bit closer to the pace this time round, alongside the often prominently-ridden Mount Moriah, and it will likely take a high-class performance to prevent Order of St George from regaining his crown.

Midfield maestros

The John Gosden-trained Stradivarius could be capable of just that, however, such is the progress he has made in his relatively short career to date. His wins last season included the Queen’s Vase at this meeting and a defeat of his elders in the Goodwood Cup, but it was his successful return in the Yorkshire Cup (by three lengths from Desert Skyline, Max Dynamite fourth) that was arguably his most impressive performance so far.

Stradivarius hits all the right notes as he wins the Mansionbet Yorkshire Cup and provides @FrankieDettori with his fifth success in the race. #DanteFestival pic.twitter.com/WkG6EtnveL

— York Racecourse (@yorkracecourse) May 18, 2018

Still full of running at the line, this significantly longer trip shouldn’t be a problem on that evidence, while the turn of foot he showed at the finish suggests he will be less inconvenienced than most should this develop into a relative sprint; entirely possible given the apparent lack of pace in the line-up.

He is likely to be settled in midfield by five-time Gold Cup-winning jockey Frankie Dettori, a comment that also applies to the likes of Desert Skyline, who was conceding 3 lb to Stradivarius at York and should relish the return to further here, and Sheikhzayedroad, who has acquitted himself well in the last two renewals of this contest (third in 2016).

Don’t expect Vazirabad until very late

Max Dynamite will likely be held up, but doesn’t appear to possess the necessary gears to trouble the principals on recent evidence, trying to follow Stradivarius through but left for dead by him when it mattered at York last time.

One horse who does have the ability to make his presence felt late in the day is Vazirabad, a horse who must be ridden with patience such is his tendency to idle once hitting the front. A winner of four of his six starts last season, including the Prix du Cadran at Chantilly, he showed the benefit of his return when winning a third consecutive renewal of the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan in March, and had plenty in hand when following up in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp (also for the third year running) last time.

Conclusion

Order of St George is clear on ratings, but Aidan O’Brien’s charge has been an expensive failure on more than one occasion, including when only second in this race last year, and it could be worth taking a chance on Stradivarius instead.

He remains open to improvement and appears to possess the necessary attributes to cope however this race pans out; a sharp change of gear should the pace be steady, and a laid-back running style that should give him every chance of staying this trip if Torcedor really points his toe from the off.