Gold Cup Preview: Sheikh, rattle and roll

As Jamie Lynch outlined in his article looking at the five big clashes at Royal Ascot, the Gold Cup revolves around the Aidan O’Brien-trained Order of St George. He won this race (by three lengths from Mizzou, Sheikhzayedroad a further two and a quarter lengths back in third) 12 months ago, but was turned over at 7/1-on in the most recent renewal of the Irish St Leger, a race he had emphatically won a year earlier. He was a terrific three and a quarter lengths third to Found when dropped back to 1½m in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly in October, but was then unable to repeat that level of form when only fourth in the Long Distance Cup (6/4-on favourite) in October. He was again beaten at odds-on at Navan on his reappearance in April, this time by Torcedor, and didn’t need to be at his best to win a listed race at Leopardstown last time. He may be the one to beat on weight-adjusted ratings – some 4 lb clear of his nearest rival – and the class act in the field when on-song, but the evidence above certainly suggests that he is far from infallible, especially as his best performances have come on slower ground than he is likely to face on Thursday. Perhaps it is because he has set such high standards in the past (Irish St Leger win was bordering on top-class), but he appears one of the more vulnerable short-priced favourites over the course of the week.

Sheikhzayedroad’s formative years at times resembled a study into the mentality of a horse, the exaggerated hold-up style of the rides given to him almost challenging him to put his best foot forward. However, he was given a more positive ride when he won the Nad Al Sheba Trophy at Meydan on his reappearance last season and then belied 40/1 odds when third to Order of St George in this race 12 months ago. He followed that with a good third to Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup, again under even more positive tactics, and then confirmed his wellbeing with back-to-back wins in the Doncaster Cup in September and the Long Distance Cup here (by half a length from Quest For More) in October. He wasn’t at his best when third in the latest Nad Al Sheba Trophy, when ridden by Richard Mullen rather than usual jockey Martin Harley, but ran as well as ever when beaten one and a half lengths by Vazirabad in the Dubai Gold Cup when last seen in March. He looks capable of another bold show and makes plenty of each-way appeal at 14/1.

The closest to Order of St George on weight-adjusted ratings is Simple Verse. She won the St Leger (first past the post, losing it in the Stewards' room on the day, before a successful appeal) at Doncaster and the Fillies & Mares Stakes here in 2015, and appeared to appreciate the step back up in trip when winning the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster (by a neck from Pretty Perfect) on her fourth start last term. She then matched that effort when third to Sheikhzayedroad in the Long Distance Cup the following month and shaped as if better for the run when a neck second to Dartmouth in the Yorkshire Cup last time. Although her stamina for such an extreme trip as this isn't assured, she is likely to stay beyond 2m and this looks the most suitable contest for her at this meeting. It also appears the right race for the most recent St Leger winner, Harbour Law. His win was the first ever in the race for a female trainer, and Laura Mongan’s stable star – who was second in the Queen’s Vase 12 months ago – is better judged on his Doncaster performance rather than his reappearance in the Sagaro Stakes here last month. He clearly needed the run after eight months off, though the race wasn't run to show him to advantage anyway.

Big Orange was fourth in the 2014 Queen’s Vase and he showed improved form once again in 2016. He went down by just a neck to Vazirabad in the Dubai Gold Cup on his reappearance last term, and matched that level of form when landing the Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket and Goodwood Cup last July, winning both races for the second year in succession. He went globetrotting thereafter, his effort when well beaten in the Hong Kong Vase not matching respectable efforts when 10th in the Melbourne Cup and fourth in the Dubai Gold Cup. He didn’t need to improve, making the most of a good opportunity, when beating Higher Power by five lengths in the Henry II Sakes at Sandown last month, but it at least shows that he is in good form ahead of this return to Royal Ascot

As well as training Sizing John to an unprecedented treble over the winter, adding the Punchestown Gold Cup to his victories in the Gold Cups at Cheltenham and Leopardstown earlier that season, and having the highest-rated two-year-old in training (Alpha Centauri, 106p), Jessica Harrington has rejuvenated the aforementioned Torcedor. Formerly trained by David Wachman, the five-year-old has taken two steps forward since a breathing operation/being stepped up in trip. He took advantage of an enterprising ride and Order of St George not quite being at his best at Navan, but he's evidently one to remain positive about and the way that he finished his race last time suggests that this longer trip could be within range.

The gallant seven-year-old Quest For More, who won the Lonsdale Cup and Prix du Cadran last season, as well as chasing home Sheikhzayedroad in both the Doncaster Cup and Long Distance Cup here (beaten half length), is respected, however he wasn’t himself when last of seven to Big Orange in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last time and needs to bounce back. Sweet Selection was most progressive in 2016, culminating in victory in the 33-runner Cesarewitch at Newmarket. She was better than ever after seven months off when following up in the Sagaro Stakes here last time, for all that she was ideally positioned as the race unfolded. She stays well and is in rude health at present so isn’t one to take lightly. Contrastingly, the 2015 winner of this race Trip To Paris has looked a shadow of his former self since returning from injury and is impossible to fancy for even the most sentimental of followers.

It may turn out that Order of St George has been trained perfectly to peak at this meeting – as his trainer has done countless times in the past, including with Yeats who won this race four years in a row in the mid-2000s – however it is Sheikhzayedroad who makes most appeal at the prices at 14/1. Back him each-way is the advice.

Recommended bet:

Back Sheikhzayedroad each-way in the Ascot Gold Cup at 14/1

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