Future festival winners? Abracadabra!

In 1983, David Copperfield famously made the Statue of Liberty disappear in front of a live audience and millions watching on television. Gaining an equally large gasp was the moment Copperfield dropped the curtain for the second time to reveal the reappearance of the world-famous landmark.

Although debunked years later and put in the shade by the advancements in technology over the subsequent 35 years, it was a passage of entertainment that wowed the world.

With smoke and mirrors not an option, arguably as impressive is a trainer’s ability to bring back a top-class thoroughbred after months in the paddock. But when does the curtain truly go up and what can we learn from shows of the past?

To consider this further, we’ve analysed the reappearances of subsequent runners in graded races at the Cheltenham, Punchestown and Aintree festivals in the past five years. Those that reappeared from March onwards – including the Willie Mullins-trained quartet of Quevega, Wicklow Brave, Penhill and Annie Power – were not counted.

Novices

Looking at novice hurdlers (excluding juveniles), 32 of the 49 graded race winners reappeared in a seven-week stretch, between weeks 42 (this week) and 48 of the calendar year. Wednesday saw the latest renewal of the Punchestown maiden won by the likes of Samcro and Labaik. While Milliner and Batts Rock, who fought out the finish, will do well to emulate that pair, both look sure to play a major role in bigger contests later this season.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given it lies almost halfway between the yards of Irish superpowers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott, Punchestown heads the list of courses for top class hurdling talent being unleashed for the first time. Faugheen and Yorkhill are among the six winners to have debuted there, while the likes of Min, Monalee and Rule The World all made the frame at the County Kildare venue.

But the bigger stages aren’t the only places to see top class talent making their seasonal bow; Ffos Las has showcased one more debut from future novice and juvenile festival winners (three) than Cheltenham over the past five years.

However, like any good magician, appearances (or reappearances) may not be all they seem. Eight of the subsequent 49 novice winners began their campaign in bumpers, with Ascot adding Thistlecrack and Josses Hill to an overall record of hosting seasonal debuts of four winners and four placed horses from 14 novice festival hurdlers.

With no festival hero yet to head back into fray, it’s easy to be lulled into thinking the real action is yet to begin. But history suggests that the stars of tomorrow may have already arrived on the scene for the winter.

The emergence of more spring festival candidates (and by proxy successful ones) kick starts one week earlier for chasers than the hurdlers, with the recent Chepstow meeting a prime platform.

Native River, Blaklion, Balder Success and Finian’s Oscar all made chase debuts in the now listed Novices’ Chase, won this year by Dan Skelton’s Spiritofthegames. Looking beyond the five-year period of analysis, it also staged a vintage edition in 2011 featuring Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti, who subsequently went on to bag no fewer than 15 Grade One chases between them.

Despite the unknowns caused by Master Tommytucker’s departure, both he and Spiritofthegames look well worth following this season.

God’s Own is the final festival winner in the past five seasons to have begun their campaign at Chepstow, but it was a defeat over hurdles in 2013 – rather than fences – which initiated a season which ultimately ended with a shock win (as a maiden) in the Ryanair Novices’ Chase at Punchestown the following May. Paul Nicholls’ potential chaser Captain Cattistock, who ran well in defeat in the Silver Trophy last weekend, could be a similar story this year.

Navan is Ireland’s answer to Chepstow, perhaps not held in as high regard as some courses by punters but certainly respected by trainers looking to unleash top talent. From 19 future festival novice chasers, five won and another five placed.

The more telling story behind the data, though, is the magician himself: Willie Mullins. Like Copperfield all those years ago, who mapped out each trick with precision, the trainer plots horses’ route to the spring festivals with equal care.

Navan may be Mullins’ own Liberty Island, with most his best chasers in recent years emerging from behind the screen there.

If you can only take in one novice chase this side of Christmas, it may be worth making it the beginners’ chase at Navan on Sunday 25^th November. Before last season’s nearly horse Al Boum Photo, Min, Douvan and Vautour all began their chase careers there.

The Main Players

Targeted races are even more of a theme for older horses, with options often limited for those that have usually shown they are talented enough to compete at graded level.

The Coral Hurdle (three subsequent winners) and the Morgiana (five) are well-used starting points for horses ready to challenge in the spring. For those looking forward to seeing the big guns over timber emerge, there is a noticeable jump (no pun intended) in festival candidates emerging from week 44 of the year. In fact, the ensuing five weeks have seen 16 out of 34 winners reappear.

Excitingly, this is the week earmarked for the return of Samcro, who has been the subject of the most debate amongst jumping fans during the summer. Regardless of whether he embarks on a chasing career at/after Down Royal early next month, or follows the Champion Hurdle route, he’ll likely be the talking horse of the winter.

With Samcro already anointed as a Gold Cup winner-in-waiting, though perhaps not until next season, the best time to catch the re-emergence of the 2019 winner may just be around the corner. 21 of 34 festival winners came back on to the course from weeks 43 to 48, with Newbury a key landing spot both earlier in the season (in what was the Hennessy Gold Cup but is now the Ladbrokes Trophy) or a late sleight of hand as seen with last season’s victor Native River.

Early Season Form

An essential prerequisite of the famous Copperfield illusion was his control of as many variables as possible. Without precise calculations, planning and equipment, the trick would have risked almost certain failure and derision across the globe.

Although combining thoroughbreds with the British and Irish weather is not a formula for predictable outcomes, the top yards regularly show a predilection for certain routes for their stable stars.

And, within reason, they can also control how hard they wind their string up before the start of a long winter.

Despite hitting the line hard in their Punchestown duels in the past two years, both Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott still start October and November very strongly. Given the number of valuable conditions races on offer in Ireland, that’s no surprise, but it also sends out a message to their rivals and builds momentum.

Elliott boosts a strike rate of 21% with his jumping string (compared to an average 16%) and an impressive Run To Form figure of 72% – no mean feat given he has had close to 1,000 runners in these two months since 2014.

Not to be outdone, Mullins has an extraordinary 36% strike rate at the same stage of the season, with a Run To Form figure of 75%.

Arguably, of more interest from a punting point of view are the patterns associated with some of the smaller yards. Nigel Twiston-Davies is well known for his fast starts, but it may be wise to keep tabs on the runners from the Ben Pauling, Emma Lavelle and James Ewart who have performed well at this stage in previous seasons.

The Final Act

Data analysis is all well and good, but it can only truly be trusted and utilised correctly when it is combined with empirical evidence and expert knowledge.

Last season was statistically relatively poor for the Philip Hobbs stable, with a virus hanging over the yard unintentionally hiding potential stars from revealing their true ability. With some now beginning the campaign from much lower marks than they would likely have done had the yard been fully operational, the mini-revival seen over the past few weeks may scale into something more akin to that delivered by Copperfield thirty-five years ago.

Others yards that had big days, but didn’t quite match expectations of previous years on several levels, include those of David Pipe, Tom George and Venetia Williams. Whether they can reappear from behind the conjurer’s curtain could be just one of the many storylines to unfold this winter.