French Preview: Max bet on Circus

Given how dominant of a force Ballydoyle have been in recent years, it is perhaps surprising that Aidan O’Brien has only won the Prix du Moulin once before, and that success came back in 2002, when Rock of Gibraltar emerged victorious in what was his seventh Group 1 win in a row. The Moulin is seemingly not a Group 1 at the top of O’Brien’s list, though, given that he hasn’t had a runner in the race since Gale Force Ten finished fourth in 2013.

However, O’Brien sends a live hope over the Channel for this year’s renewal in the shape of Circus Maximus. He was a smart two-year-old and made a winning return from six months off in the Dee Stakes at Chester in May, looking better the further he went and leaving the impression that stamina was going to be his forte. As a result, he was sent off at 10/1 for the Derby at Epsom (sporting first-time cheekpieces) on his next start, but didn’t improve for the step up in trip, beaten when hampered over a furlong out. Unexpectedly, Circus Maximus was then supplemented for the St James’s Palace Stakes back at a mile on his next start, sporting first-time blinkers, and proving too strong for the late-surging King of Comedy in the closing stages. Circus Maximus ran just as well in defeat in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood after, and he is best not judged too harshly on his latest start in the Juddmonte International at York, seemingly not suited by the return to a mile and a quarter. This doesn’t look as strong as the Group 1s he’s been contesting, and he warrants maximum respect as a result now taking on his elders for the first time.

Thriller - Circus Maximus and Ryan Moore win the St James's Palace Stakes for trainer Aidan O'Brien! @Ascot #RoyalAscot pic.twitter.com/qG28iMvtIo

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 18, 2019

His main challenger, according to the betting and the form book, is another Irish-trained horse, last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas winner Romanised. He made an encouraging start to the year, but has taken his form up another level as of late, winning his last two starts, namely the Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh in July and the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time, beating the reopposing Shaman by one and a quarter lengths. He was only fifth in a better edition of the same race 12 months previous, and didn’t need to improve to land a second Group 1 win of his career, making smooth progress over a furlong out and ridden out to prevail. Romanised seems to be holding his form better this year, but that wasn’t a deep race for the level, and he will likely have to improve further to complete a hat-trick here.

Shaman has form lines that tie in with both Circus Maximus and Romanised, having finished fifth (beaten three and a half lengths) in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot before his latest effort at Deauville last month. That was Shaman’s best performance to date, taking a keen hold in behind the pacemakers before taking up the running under two furlongs from home, but was left behind by the winner in the final 100 yards. Provided he settles better, he should be able to close the gap with Romanised, and maybe even reverse the form, but he is another who will need a career-best performance to come out on top.

Andre Fabre is the most successful trainer in the Moulin with six wins, the latest of those coming in 2016 courtesy of Valdamos, and he relies on the improving Delaware this time around. No more than useful as a juvenile, Delaware has made giant strides so far this season, starting out with a trio of placed efforts in minor events before winning a listed race at Deauville in July. He followed up in the Group 3 Prix Daphnis over the same C&D last time, leading off the home turn and kicking clear to win by four lengths. There should be even more to come from him, and he looks overpriced given he isn’t far off the level of form required to be competitive here, not to mention his master trainers record in the race.

A son of Frankel getting better and better with each run - Delaware ran away with a Listed race at @fgdeauville last month and does the same here in the Group 3 Shadwell Prix Daphnis! pic.twitter.com/RNtqRBPY0a

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) August 17, 2019

Line of Duty and Phoenix of Spain are a couple of interesting British raiders who need mentioning. The first-named was a smart juvenile in 2018, capping off a fine season with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill Downs. He made a slow start to the campaign this year, though, below par in both the Dante and the Derby, but bounced back to form returned to a mile when one and a quarter lengths third to Romanised last time. For all he hasn’t ran well when tried at middle distances this season, he did shape as though worth another try at a mile and a quarter, making headway from over two furlongs out and never nearer than when at the finish. The feeling is he will struggle to win another Group 1 at this trip and should be opposed on that basis.

Phoenix of Spain always looked the type that would make a better three-year-old last season, and he announced himself on the scene in tremendous fashion with an all-the-way win in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh in May. However, he has failed to reproduce that form in both of his starts since, for all he never looked at ease on the track when again able to dictate in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last time, soon done with once headed inside the last two furlongs. Phoenix of Spain has something to prove now, though he has been contesting better races than this, and would be a danger to all if returning to his Guineas form.

In summary, this doesn’t look the deepest renewal of this Group 1, and the one who ticks the most boxes is Circus Maximus. He is one of the best milers among his generation, the form of his St James’s Palace win perhaps the best on offer here, and he can prove too strong for his older compatriot Romanised. A bigger danger could well be fellow three-year-old Delaware, who is firmly on the progressive path now, and represents a yard with an excellent record in the race.

Recommendation:

Back Circus Maximus at 9/2 for the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp on Sunday