Arc Trials Day 2017: Journey can make the trip worthwhile

As John Ingles pointed out in his preview, Arc Trials: What’s the verdict?, earlier this week, the Prix Vermeille has the best recent record as a trial for Europe’s richest race, producing four of the last 10 winners. However, as was the case 12 months ago, this year looks another sub-standard renewal of the race, and the outcome is unlikely to have much effect on the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market.

Last year’s winner Left Hand currently heads the betting for the Prix Vermeille, after returning to near her best form when finishing one and a quarter lengths third to Roger Varian’s Ajman Princess in the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last month. It’s therefore a little surprising to see Varian’s runner currently trading at double the price of Left Hand. Indeed, Ajman Princess did get the run of the race on the front end, but she still showed improved form for the switch to more prominent tactics and the fitting of headgear, so it’s hard to argue she wasn’t a deserving winner on the day.

John Gosden, who is yet to win this Group 1, is well represented with Journey and The Black Princess. The latter hasn’t been seen since winning the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock in July, and deserves a crack at top level, but Journey appears to be the stable’s main hope. Despite not yet firing this season, it’s worth remembering that Journey won the Fillies’ And Mares Stakes at Ascot by four lengths last year, and is a very smart performer on her day. She was let down by an uncharacteristically tardy start in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when last seen, and never looked comfortable throughout the race having to sit off the pace. That run aside, she has a favourite’s chance on her previous form, and looks the value play at around 13/2.  

Others to note include Bateel, who has taken her form to a new level since joining Francis-Henri Graffard this year, winning her last two starts, including the Prix de Pomone at Deauville last month. She has proven that all ground comes alike to her and she should be thereabouts again, though another step forward in form terms is needed for win purposes. The trio of three-year-olds also need to progress, but God Given and Baiyouna possess a fair bit of scope so it would come as little surprise were they to make the requisite improvement to figure.

The other Group 1 on Sunday’s high-class card at Chantilly is the Prix du Moulin, and this year’s leading European miler Ribchester is bidding to become the first British-trained winner of the race since Excelebration in 2011. His latest run in the Sussex Stakes should have been the first cross-generational clash of the top milers this season, but torrential rain throughout the day led to Churchill being declared a late non-runner, and conditions had got so testing by the time the race was run it became more about handling the ground than talent. As such, Ribchester met with his second defeat of the season, but as long as that run hasn’t left too much of a mark, he is fully expected to bounce back to winning ways here.

Just like the Prix Vermeille, the Prix du Moulin doesn’t look a vintage renewal, and finding a solid option to take on the short-priced favourite Ribchester with is no easy task. The most interesting, however, is the Owen Burrows-trained Massaat, who finished second to Galileo Gold in last year’s 2000 Guineas, and returned from the doldrums with an impressive win in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on his seasonal return last month. He had been off the track for 12 months through injury, but he proved as good as ever to record a smooth success. Maasaat’s job now is to prove he can build on that, but if doing so, then he looks the likeliest danger to Ribchester.

Zelzal finished runner-up to Taareef in the Prix Bertrand du Breuil earlier this season and was also perhaps unsuited by extreme conditions when finishing fourth in the Sussex Stakes last time. He remains relatively lightly-raced for a four-year-old and, having just had the two runs this season, is fresher than most. Taareef, on the other hand, went on to win the Prix Messidor at Maisons-Laffitte in July, and wasn’t discredited in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time. Inns of Court finished around one and a half lengths in front of Tareef that day, and looked sure to win until Al Wukair came with a late surge. Andre Fabre’s three-year-old has a solid profile and is expected to be in the reckoning again, but on form, at least, they all have a bit to find in order to outdo Ribchester.

Recommendations:

Back Journey to win the Prix Vermeille at 13/2

Back Ribchester to win the Prix du Moulin at 6/5

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