Epsom Derby: Ante-Post Betting Preview

The fact that Churchill is 6/4 for the 2000 Guineas but 6/1 for the Derby highlights punters are unsure of his stamina to stay the Derby trip of a mile and a half. Clearly, his sire being Galileo gives him hope, but he’s out of Queen Mary runner-up Meow, herself out of Airwave (best as a sprinter, for all she won over a mile for Aidan O’Brien late in her career), and I’m going to err on the side of caution at this stage. It’s probably no coincidence he’s had a very similar two-year-old campaign to another son of Galileo and a Storm Cat mare, Gleneagles, who wouldn’t have stayed 12 furlongs.

Ballydoyle also has Auckland who is actually an ‘uncle’ to Churchill as he’s out of Airwave (he’s also by Galileo). He showed promise when third on his debut, but clearly needs to do more before he can be considered a Derby prospect. Capri possibly found the Criterium de Saint-Cloud one race too many when only third last time and he’s bred to relish a mile and a half at three. However, the vibes—and the fact there wasn’t much between him and his stablemates Yucatan and Exemplar in the Beresford Stakes in September—don’t really suggest he’s vying for top honours in the Ballydoyle pecking order and I’d rather wait to see how he fares in a Derby trial (and, perhaps most significantly, which trial he runs in).

Yucatan has raced only at a mile and was staying on in soft ground when second in the Beresford, but I’m not yet convinced he’s a mile-and-a-half horse in the making; he’s out of Six Perfections, who wasn’t asked to go further than an extended nine furlongs, and whose previous progeny are a five-furlong Group 2 winner Planet Five and Yucatan’s sister Faufiler, who is yet to try beyond 10 furlongs. Beresford third Exemplar could improve plenty next year given he’s a Galileo half-brother to Irish/Yorkshire Oaks winner Blue Bunting, though he’s also a sibling to Descarao, who stays two and three-quarter miles on the Flat, and more be more of a Queen’s Vase than a Derby type.

With Lancaster Bomber not sure to stay much beyond a mile given he’s a War Front half-brother to Excelebration and Cliffs of Moher arguably more a Guineas type too, perhapsthe most interesting Ballydoyle for the Derby as things stand is Sir John Lavery. He built on his debut (over nine furlongs) when hacking up in a heavy-ground maiden at Gowran just eight days later in October and will be suited by at least a mile and a quarter next year.

Rivet now looks a much more credible Derby contender than he did after the Dewhurst, his claims enhanced by his win in the Racing Post Trophy, but I still doubt he’s in the same class as the likes of Motivator, Authorized and Camelot (who all won the Racing Post Trophy before winning the Derby). The William Haggas stable also has Seniority in the Derby betting. He’s a brother to two-mile winner Anglophile, but his debut success hasn’t worked out and Derby winners just don’t bomb out like he did in a Sandown listed race won by South Seas (unlikely to stay a mile and a half), which admittedly came quickly after his first outing.

Escobar is a half-brother to Ghetto Gospel, who stayed a mile and a half, but he’s also out of a two-year-old winner at up to six and a half furlongs and has proved a strong traveller over seven furlongs so far. A more obvious Derby horse from the Hugo Palmer yard is Best of Days, who appreciated the step up to a mile when winning the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket in September. He’ll need to improve plenty on that neck defeat of The Anvil (clearly down the pecking order at Ballydoyle), but that race wasn't really conducive to a flashy performance and has both run style and pedigree (by Azamour of an 11-furlong winner, who is a half-sister to the Dee Stakes winner Azmeel) of one who’ll relish middle distances.

The Andre Fabre-trained pair of Waldgeist and Akihiro are perhaps the most interesting contenders from France at this point in time, though as mentioned in my 2000 Guineas Preview, the risks probably outweigh the gains regarding backing French-trained horses for British classics this early, for all Fabre won the Derby with Pour Moi in 2011.

Cracksman is not guaranteed to stay a mile and a half—his half-brother Fantastic Moon (by Dalakhani) just about did—but his dam (a listed winner over nine furlongs on soft ground) is a half-sister to Halla San, who was successful at up to a mile and three-quarters, and Cracksman certainly shaped like one who'd have claims of getting 12 furlongs when successful at Newmarket on his debut in October. Cracksman was going away from Wild Tempest in the closing stages, despite having taken an keen hold in the early stages, and an opening Timeform rating of 105P won’t leave him with much to find in something like the listed Feilden Stakes (won by the same connection’s Golden Horn en route to winning the Derby in 2015) first time out in 2017.

Similarly exciting types by Frankel are Atty Persse and Mirage Dancer, with the former perhaps the more obvious type for Epsom given his dam stayed a mile and a half and is a half-sister to Faasel, who stayed two miles on the Flat and further over jumps. Rainbow Legacy is another Frankel colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute (like Mirage Dancer), but he requires much more guesswork; he has sound claims of staying a mile and a half as a half-brother to two-mile winner Christmas Hamper, but he didn’t show much on his debut (though better was clearly expected).

Titus could be anything after his winning debut in a big field at Leopardstown in October. He stayed a mile on soft ground there, but did travel strongly and isn’t really bred to prove best over the Derby trip being by Dansili out of a 10-furlong winner. He’ll reportedly be aimed at a 2000 Guineas trial in the spring. Finally, Cape Byron was also quoted for the Guineas after his maiden win and may be aimed at the Craven. He’s a Shamardal half-brother to smart winner up to a mile and a half Naqshabban.

Cracksman is not currently entered in the Derby, but he’s still worth backing at 25/1 (33/1 in places) as he looked an exciting prospect when winning on his debut and will surely be supplemented for Epsom if showing himself to be good enough next spring, just as Golden Horn was after winning the Dante. Indeed, Cracksman’s profile is very similar to Golden Horn’s at the same point, both in terms of race record, rating and pedigree. Sir John Lavery, Best of Days and Atty Persse also make some appeal at this early stage.

Recommendation:

Back Cracksman at 25/1 for the Derby

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Ante-Post Previews of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and 2000 Guineas can also be found by clicking here.