Eider Chase Preview: West is best

It’s been more a case of Eider-pulled-up rather than Eiderdown in recent renewals of the stamina sapping race, the highlight at Newcastle this Saturday. Just six of last year’s 18 starters completed, while eight of the 11 runners in the 2011 renewal were pulled up.

Haydock’s recent Grand National Trial – where only three of the eight finished – was a timely reminder that these long distance races held on testing ground require a mix of stamina and determination; some horses have one, not many have both.

Race position important

Interestingly, the last Eider winner to record an In-Play Symbol of 1 was Campanero who made virtually all in the aforementioned 2011 renewal, with the recent trend favouring horses who travel well during their races.

That scenario could see the frontrunners Hainan and Smooth Stepper, who are both trained by Sue Smith, Irish challenger Thebarrowman and the rejuvenated (since blinkers went on) Themanfrom Minella all struggle to reproduce their peak efforts, despite each appearing to have conditions to suit.

Go West

Conditions will likely favour Timeform top-rated West of the Edge who ran over hurdles on his first two outings this season, blowing away the cobwebs before a career-best effort when three and a half lengths second to Emperor's Choice at Haydock last time. West of the Edge can race off the same mark here and looks a major player, especially if connections leave the horse’s headgear on (clear career-best efforts last two occasions he has worn cheekpieces).

Headgear appears key to the improved performance of Milansbar at Warwick last time, where he returned to form from out of the blue to finally take advantage of a lenient mark. That was a notable victory for Bryony Frost who is again booked to ride at the five-day-stage, though her claim has dropped by 2 lb since that January success. Milansbar recorded a good timefigure that day (142) and is respected despite his 9 lb higher mark.

What a win this was for Milansbar and Bryony Frost @WarwickRaces yesterday | pic.twitter.com/uaXVuwAbWC

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 14, 2018

On a wing and a prayer

Baywing has long looked the type for these long distance events, and he has a strong book of heavy-ground form (four-timer in the mud over hurdles in 2015/16). He was a close-up fifth in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day, but shaped as if needing the emphasis more on stamina when third at this venue earlier this month. He’ll get that examination here and is another leading candidate assuming his sometimes-sketchy jumping holds up.

Course regular Boric showed he remains in good heart when second to Straidnahanna at Catterick last time, however his Rehearsal Chase fourth suggests that he will be vulnerable back up in grade here, despite the extra distance playing to his strengths.

Chase the ace?

After the disappointment on Cue Card, Paddy Brennan guides Chase The Spud to victory in the Midlands Grand National at @UttoxeterRaces: pic.twitter.com/85yls9lqXn

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) 18 март 2017 г.

Chase the Spud beat last year’s Eider winner Mysteree when landing the Midlands Grand National last March, and shouldn’t be judged too harshly on his Welsh National flop last time (change of tactics; ridden too forcefully), however his BHA mark of 149 makes life tough.

Perhaps of more interest is horse in focus Vinnie Lewis, a less exposed entrant who has made giant strides since being stepped up in trip on soft/heavy ground. He won at Sedgefield (by 14 lengths from Red Danaher) in November and improved by 12 lb when following up at Plumpton last time by six lengths from Shanroe Santos. A lightly-raced seven-year-old, he is open to further improvement on just his fifth start over fences.

Youth v Experience

The progressive Daklondike, winner of two of his last three over fences, including at Newbury last time by three lengths from Grand Vision, is another for strong consideration. He will stay long distances and could well have more to offer as his stamina is further tested. Fellow six-year-old Back to the Thatch was well supported when improving to open his account in this sphere in decisive fashion at Chepstow last time. He was suited by the step back up in trip there and should stay beyond three miles, though this is a tough race for young horses (no winner aged six in its 65-year history).

Conclusion

West of the Edge has an alternative entry in the Devon National at Exeter on Friday, however the hope is that – having flopped at that venue before - connections will decide to carry less weight in this race 24 hours later, especially given the horse’s excellent record when travelling north of the M25. He looks the best bet at 8/1.

Recommended bet:

Back West of the Edge to win the Eider Handicap Chase at 8/1