Ebor Handicap Preview: Kinema worth a watch at York

The Ebor Handicap has long been established as the most valuable race of its kind in Europe and seems to become more and more competitive with every year that goes by, a fact that is reflected by the compressed nature of the latest renewal, with only 8 lb on BHA ratings separating the 20 runners guaranteed a run in Saturday's £280,000 contest at the time of writing.

Three-year-olds dominated the race between 1980 and 2001 (11 winners from 21 renewals), but the increasing quality of the race has made it difficult for the younger generation to earn a spot in the line-up and there will be no representation from the classic generation in 2016, with the market headed by a horse who enjoyed his best moment on Grand National day at Aintree.

Ivan Grozny is the horse in question and he comes into Saturday’s race on the back of a dominant success at the Galway Festival. He won that race in the manner of a horse capable of mixing it at this level, kicking for home as the field turned into the straight and quickly forging some 14 lengths clear of a fairly useful yardstick (albeit he was receiving 4 lb). He still needs to prove his effectiveness on a surface as fast as this (going is good to firm at the time of writing), but that represented by far the best effort of his short career on the Flat to date. A smart winner of the Grade 3 Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary before that, Ivan Grozny remains potentially very well-handicapped in this sphere, and looks sure to run a big race as he attempts to emulate trainer Willie Mullins’ 2009 winner, Sesenta.

Antiquarium showed improved form when landing the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle in June, producing a strong burst to lead near the finish and appearing to relish the emphasis on speed at the trip. Indeed, the turn of foot he showed suggests the drop back to 1¾m will not be a problem here and he would arguably have won by further but for trouble-in-running as the field entered the final three furlongs. A late setback deprived him of the opportunity to compete for Group honours in last month’s Goodwood Cup, but he is said to have recovered well since and – fifth in the Melrose Handicap over this C&D 12 months ago – Antiquarium is entitled to be the price he is on form. 

Antiquarium’s powerful finish denied Seamour and trainer Brian Ellison what would have been a memorable victory in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, but the Malton handler will be hopeful of making amends on the Knavesmire this weekend. Ellison made no secret of his desire to win the Pitmen’s Derby and Seamour looked by far the likeliest winner when hitting the front with two furlongs to run. However, his defeat was ultimately a case of him coming to the end of his tether while Antiquarium was gathering a head of steam and, having disappointed on his most recent outing in a listed race over this C&D, Seamour arrives here with more to prove than some.

The Ebor is one of few major handicaps to be missing from the CV of Tony Martin and he could be double-handed this year, with Heartbreak City and last year's disappointing joint-favourite Quick Jack. Quick Jack has been a regular in these staying handicaps for the last couple of years, but was beaten more than 20 lengths behind Litigant in 2015. He is difficult to fancy on that evidence and stablemate Heartbreak City - who fared better at this meeting 12 months when landing the two-mile handicap on the first day - would appear to have the better chance of the pair. He has plenty to find on ratings, but arrives in top form once again after a comfortable victory over hurdles at Galway recently and is sure to have been trained to the minute by his astute handler.

Vent de Force and the strong-travelling Barsanti are others of note - the latter likely to be most suited by the demands of this race - but it is the Ralph Beckett-trained Kinema that appeals as the best bet at the five-day stage.

Kinema appeared to have his stamina stretched when seventh on his most recent outing over two miles at Goodwood, but shaped as if still in good form and deserves another chance to confirm the promise of his victory in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot. He showed himself to be a smart performer on that occasion and the form could hardly have worked out better, with the third Kings Fete a winner of both his subsequent starts in pattern company. Frankie Dettori is an attractive early jockey booking and, with the possibility of more to come given the upward curve he was on earlier in the campaign, Kinema looks a sound each-way bet at around 14/1.

Recommended bets:

Back Kinema each-way in the Ebor Handicap