Early Position Map Analysis: 32Red Veterans' Handicap Chase

Over the last year, pace maps (or more accurately ‘Early Position Maps’) for every Flat race have been available on Timeform.com for Race Passes customers. Now Early Position Maps are available for jumps.

They are presented differently to the Flat Early Position Maps, given there is no draw to help order the horses, however they use the same process of estimating the likelihood of a horse recording each early position figure (EPF), from 1 (leading) to 5 (held up). These likelihoods return a weighted EPF – effectively the centre of a horse’s early position distribution – and this is how each horse is plotted in the Early Position Map.

Early Position Maps for Jumps take into account the same factors as the Flat – past performances, recent performances (to discern a change in tactics), jockey, fitness, etc. – with the exception of the draw. Like the Flat, it also takes into account the other runners in the race – in a field of front-runners it’s extremely unlikely every horse will lead, what’s important to know is who is the most likely leader.

This horse by horse data which builds the Early Position Maps is also used to generate pace forecasts, using the likely run style of horses in the race before taking into account other runners.  A field of front-runners is probably going to feature a strong pace, while the Early Position Maps will display likely positions given a horses run style as well as the other horses in the race.

Pace Forecast Improvements

Previous iterations of pace forecasts went from Uncontested, Weakly Contested, Contested, Strongly Contested, to Very Strongly Contested. These forecasts have been updated with additional categories to help users further distinguish the likely pace forecast, they now range from Uncontested, Very Weak, Weak, Even, Strong, Very Strong, Extreme. These forecasts don’t just look at front runners but also those horses who track the pace and can sometimes be seen harrying front runners along.

Another addition to the Jumps Early Position Map is the ideal position bar – this estimates the ideal, or optimum, position of runners given the likely pace scenario as well as the course and distance conditions. Some courses favour front runners more than others, while different pace scenarios will play into the hands of various run styles.

Below is an actual Early Position Map for the Veterans’ Handicap Chase which takes place at Sandown on Saturday. As you can see, there are 15 runners set to go to post, but there isn’t an abundance of pace predicted, the ideal position bar – the deeper the red the better the position – suggesting that a midfield to prominent position is desired. Though no horse lies directly under the deepest red area, we are effectively looking for horses in or near that band.

32Red VETERANS' HANDICAP CHASE (Series Final) Early Position Map

Of the horses who are expected to race in or around that area, it is Gas Line Boy who stands out. He is yet another success story for trainer Ian Williams, who has not only revitalised Gas Line Boy, but has him in the best form of his career at the ripe old age of 12. The return to three miles will suit and the likelihood of testing ground isn’t a problem either, so it’s easy to see why he’s at the forefront of the betting. Pete The Feat won this race last year from a 6 lb lower mark, and arrives fresh from another C&D success last time; he clearly saves his best for this track.

A solid round of jumping is required if you want to be competitive at Sandown, but as the ‘prone to mistakes’ button indicates, there are several in here with sketchy profiles in the jumping department. Despite his good recent record at this track, Pete The Feat falls under that category, whereas Theatrical Star, Third Intention and Fox Appeal are others that need treating with a degree of caution. Conversely, Loose Chips and O’Faolains Boy both come under the ‘good jumper’ category. The former has been struggling for form at present and something to prove as his mark continues to fall, while O’Faolains Boy took a step back in the right direction at Punchestown last time and is very well handicapped at present, so could outrun his double-figure price.

The enigma of the race is Buywise, who is another that is well treated on the pick of his form, and is paired with a new jockey on Saturday. He hasn’t contested many of these veterans’ races, but as the early position map demonstrates, he can get too far behind for his own good. Those who know the horse may expect him to be on the ‘prone to mistakes’ list, however it is in-play symbols from recent performances – rather than symbols attached to master ratings – which ultimately decides whether a horse falls into that category.

Conclusion

This looks a competitive race of its type, with only 4 lb separating the top ten on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, but taking everything into account, a big run is expected from Gas Line Boy. He won the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree last time, suited by the emphasis on stamina that day, so the return to three miles will be in his favour, and he is fancied to land another big prize for Ian Williams. O’Faolains Boy has the ability to outrun his current odds if building on his latest run, and he could go well at an each-way price.