Dubai World Cup Preview: US to continue their empire on dirt

The Dubai World Cup has gone through a few transformations since the turn of the century, primarily due to the change of surface from dirt to tapeta and then back again. Looking at the pre-race Timeform master ratings of winners from 2004 to 2015 makes for interesting reading.

*pale blue is the range of winning ratings; deeper blue is the inter-quartile range (50% of winning performances in this band); white line is the median

When the World Cup was held at Nad Al Sheba it almost always went to a horse with a leading form chance, certainly from 2004 to 2009 anyway. Five of the six winners during that period were trained in America, namely Pleasantly Perfect, Roses In May, Invasor, Curlin and Well Armed. Their average pre-race master rating was 129.4 and average starting price was 3.1/1, figures which change to 131 and 1.4/1 when not including 10/1 winner Well Armed.

While it’s true that some of those renewals featured one or two horses that were notably ahead of the pack in terms of form, it’s clear that the US horses’ familiarity with a dirt surface stood them in good stead.

The World Cups from 2010 to 2014 were run on Meydan’s tapeta surface and, while American-trained horses were still present during that time, they were not present in the same numbers as before.

It’s fair to say only four genuine World Cup contenders made the trip during those five years, namely Gio Ponti who finished fourth in 2010 and fifth in 2011, Royal Delta who finished ninth in 2012 and tenth in 2013, Game On Dude who finished twelfth in 2012 and Animal Kingdom who won in 2013.

It’s interesting to note that Animal Kingdom was something a bit different from the US, as his three races prior to the World Cup had been on turf, while he’d also won twice on polytrack, a surface more akin to tapeta than dirt is.

There were no US runners in 2014 and, after attracting some criticism, including from that nation—respected US journalist Steve Crist was particularly scathing when he wrote: “Since being run on a tapeta surface at Meydan in 2010, it [the Dubai World Cup] has become a nearly meaningless race beyond the money, with no championship implications and diminished American participation,"—Meydan decided to rip up its tapeta surface and replace it with dirt ahead of the 2015 World Cup.

As the World Cup returned to the dirt, the Americans returned to the World Cup. While they could not take home the winner’s prize money—the race was won by Godolphin’s Prince Bishop, who did what horses aren’t meant to do on dirt by coming from last, albeit aided by the race was run—they filled the frame courtesy of California Chrome (pre-race rating of 128 and sent off at 5/4), Lea (124 and 4/1) and Candy Boy (121+ and 25/1).

The return to dirt could not quite produce another American-trained winner last year—also, was the surface still betting down perhaps?—but it looks sure to do so this time around given the top five horses on Timeform ratings all hail from the US.

Timeform Ratings (weight adj.)

140      California Chrome (master rating of 126)

138      Frosted

137      Keen Ice

136      Hoppertunity

136      Mshawish

Remaining runners: Mubtaahij (trained in South Africa), Special Fighter (UAE), Candy Boy (UAE), Hokko Tarumae (Japan), Gun Pit (Hong Kong), Vadamos (France) and Teletext (Saudi Arabia, formerly trained in France)

Here’s a graphic showing the runners in terms of pre-race master ratings rather than weight-adjusted ratings (hence why four-year-old Mubtaahij is joint-fourth on the list):

Whilst top-rated California Chrome has had two runs this year (won both) going into the World Cup, as opposed to just one going into last year’s race, there’s a case for saying he’s a fresher horse given his run in the 2015 renewal was his eleventh start in around 14 months, which included some very tough races such as all three of the American classics. California did not race again in 2015 after his run here, but he’s looked every bit as good in the last few months when winning at Santa Anita and over the World Cup C&D.

In a change of headgear—visor (which he wears again here) replacing his regular blinkers—California Chrome brought back memories of Curlin when winning a handicap off a mark of 121 last time, his compatriot having won a similar race off mark of 129 at Nad Al Sheba prior to his World Cup win in 2008.

California Chrome hasn’t been done any favours by his World Cup draw for the second year running—nine of nine last year, 11 of 12 this time around—but neither of the two horses either side of him (Hoppertunity and Teletext) are known pace-setters, so he should be able to follow his perhaps chief rival Frosted (stall nine) across toward the rail.

Frosted spent plenty of last year’s bumping heads with American Pharaoh, coming off worst all four times, including when the pair were mowed down by Keen Ice in the Travers Stakes. American Pharoah and Frosted paid the price for taking each other on that day, and this should prove a more suitable tactical scenario for Frosted given there are no out-and-out front runners in the race (Special Fighter perhaps the most likely to front run).

While those who backed California Chrome last year may be wary of getting burnt again, he does look the most likely winner and his position as 7/4 market leader is fully justified.

Finally, it’s worth repeating highlighting that there are no British-trained runners in this year’s World Cup (also only one, Side Glance, in 2015 if you do not include the two Godolphin runners). In fact, only four of this year’s 12 runners have ever run in Britain, namely Mshawish, Mubtaahij, Vadamos and Special Fighter, with only the last named having been trained in this country (by Mark Johnston during 2014).