Dubai World Cup Night Best Bets: Godolphin can reign again

Saturday sees the culmination of the Dubai Carnival, with the big night itself producing a stellar cast of equine stars from across the globe. Elsewhere on the site, Adam Houghton has previewed the World Cup and taken a look back at some of the notable renewals of the race, while here I’ll attempt to decipher a few of the supporting races.

In recent times, the Dubai Turf has been a happy hunting ground for Japanese raiders, with their representatives winning three of the last five renewals courtesy of Just A Way (2014), Real Steel (2016) and Vivlos (2017). Of those three, Just A Way was undoubtedly the best, recording a Timeform rating of 131 when defeating Vercingetorix by over 6 lengths. While potential superstar filly Almond Eye isn’t quite in Just A Way’s league yet, she certainly isn’t far off, and has every chance of building on her current Timeform master rating of 126 this year. Considering the sex allowance she receives, Almond Eye comes out well clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings, and will take all the beating.

Dream Castle has been a big improver at the World Cup Carnival for Saeed bin Suroor, possessing a similar profile to last year’s winner Benbatl for the same trainer. However, he will need to step forward again if he is to concede weight to the likes of Almond Eye and Aidan O’Brien’s filly I Can Fly, who may well be the each-way value in the race. Runner-up to Roaring Lion in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in October, she confirmed her current wellbeing with a routine win in minor company at Dundalk earlier this month. While she may struggle to beat Almond Eye, this looks wide open for the places, and she makes plenty of appeal for at least a place.

🏆 Coral-Eclipse ✅
🏆 Juddmonte International Stakes ✅
🏆 Irish Champion Stakes ✅
🏆 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes ✅

It's a fourth consecutive Group One success for Roaring Lion at Ascot! 😍#TheLionRoars #ChampionsDay pic.twitter.com/3yuveK06ZP

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 20, 2018

Those who prefer a more solid win bet proposition should look no further than Cross Counter in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier on the card. Charlie Appleby’s Melbourne Cup winner comes here without a prep run but that is rarely an issue for one from this outfit. A steady improver in handicaps last season, Cross Counter announced himself as a horse to follow on the big stage with an impressive win in a fast time over Epsom Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood in August. Subsequently a good second to stable companion (and Dubai Sheema Classic favourite) Old Persian in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, Appleby’s charge has strong claims of backing up his Melbourne Cup victory in this contest. French challenger Call The Wind and Cross Counter’s stable companion Ispolini will provide the biggest threats.

The other main bet on the card comes on the dirt in the UAE Derby, with Walking Thunder having secured the services of Frankie Dettori and the plum draw in stall 1. Regarded as the best 3-y-o on the Dubai scene before being turned over at odds-on in the UAE 2000 Guineas last time, there are sound reasons for thinking Walking Thunder will perform much better this time around. A little too free while racing wide in the Guineas, the naturally-speedy son of Violence should be able to secure the early lead without using up much petrol from his inside berth, and will take plenty of pegging back if able to dictate from the front.  Charlie Appleby’s improving filly Divine Image looks a worthy adversary given her upwardly-mobile profile and the fact that she receives weight off the colts, while there are also a couple of interesting US raiders to factor in. However, Walking Thunder looks the value at this stage and should probably be a shorter price than the 7/1 currently on offer.

Recommended Bets

Back Cross Counter (win) in the Dubai Gold Cup

Back Walking Thunder (win) in the UAE Derby

Back I Can Fly (each-way) in the Dubai Turf