Diamond Jubilee Preview: The Tin Man can time it to perfection

Like the King’s Stand Stakes, the Diamond Jubilee has become a truly global affair since Australian raider Choisir won both races in 2003, with runners trained in Hong Kong, the US and Australia (again), all featuring on the roll of honour in the intervening period. There are a few unfamiliar names to UK racegoers in this year’s renewal, too, though it is a far more regular visitor to Ascot who heads the betting at this stage.

Ascot has not been a happy hunting ground for Harry Angel so far, however, with the four-year-old yet to taste victory in four previous starts at the track. He is clearly a top-class sprinter on his day, as he showed when winning the July Cup at Newmarket and Sprint Cup at Haydock last season, but his poor record over this C&D must be a concern for those looking to take the relatively short odds.

The reasons for Harry Angel’s underwhelming performances at this venue to date are perhaps two-fold. Firstly, Clive Cox’s charge has never been the most amenable to restraint, especially when challenged in the early stages, and added to the stiff test that the Ascot straight track represents, he is always likely to be vulnerable to a more patiently-ridden rival in the latter stages. That was certainly the case when second to Caravaggio in last year’s Commonwealth Cup, and also when fourth behind Librisa Breeze and co on his final start that season in the Champions Sprint Stakes.

A key feature of that Commonwealth Cup was the manner in which Intelligence Cross (stablemate of Caravaggio) was ridden, with his chief role seemingly being to ensure that Harry Angel did not get an easy lead. It would be no surprise if he were to fulfil the same role this time round, along with another Aidan O’Brien-trained runner in the shape of Spirit of Valor, especially as the yard’s leading contender Merchant Navy would likely benefit from a strong gallop; a Group 1 winner in his native Australia, Merchant Navy is equally effective over seven furlongs and was never stronger than at the finish when making a winning stable debut (conceded weight all round) in the Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh last time.

A Group 1 winner in Australia - Merchant Navy picks up strongly to win the Group 2 @weatherbysltd Ireland Greenlands Stakes on his first start for Aidan O'Brien: pic.twitter.com/CSpCLEt8Tl

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 26, 2018

Warrior well worth a second look

Others who will most likely be ridden prominently include the Australian raider Redkirk Warrior, who actually started his career with William Haggas before heading Down Under (via a stint in Hong Kong). Interestingly, both his wins for Haggas came over a mile and a quarter (including at this venue), but he has been transformed into a high-class sprinter for these connections, winning Group 1s over both five and six furlongs this year. His win in the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington third last time – with Merchant Navy back in third – represented a clear career-best effort, and he cannot be discounted if reproducing that level of form here.

Bound To Nowhere and Projection also have records that suggest they will be ridden nearer first than last. The former is a much-improved horse to the one who finished fourth in the Commonwealth Cup last season and should go well for Wesley Ward, who won this race with Undrafted in 2015.

Projection has also proven his effectiveness at this track, including when third in the Wokingham 12 months ago, but this represents by far the toughest task of his career to date, and he looks up against it with the principals on form. Similar comments apply to Sir Dancealot, as he was getting 5 lb from Harry Angel when third behind that rival in the Duke of York Stakes last time, and there is no obvious reason why he should reverse the form here.

The Tin Man is all heart

Projection was three quarters of a length behind The Tin Man when third on his most recent outing in a listed race at Windsor, and that run should have put James Fanshawe’s charge spot on as he attempts to repeat his heroics in this race (by a neck from Tasleet, Librisa Breeze fourth) 12 months ago.

A class return - The Tin Man wins the Listed @WbysHamilton Leisure Stakes at @WindsorRaces. Back with a bang! pic.twitter.com/VYww5BtpJt

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 21, 2018

That was his third victory over C&D, overall, and another bold bid looks on the cards, with the forecast strong gallop expected to set it up beautifully for this hold-up performer. D’bai, who was second in that listed event at Windsor, gave the form a boost, too, when winning a Group 3 on his next start at Haydock.

The field is completed by French raider City Light and Librisa Breeze, both of whom look likely to be held up in the early stages. The latter had several of these behind when winning the Champions Sprint Stakes over C&D on his final 2017 start, but that success came on much softer ground than he looks likely to encounter here. City Light, on the other hand, completed his hat-trick in a Group 3 at Longchamp last time and is very much a sprinter on the up; he shouldn’t be dismissed too lightly with leading big-race jockey Christophe Soumillon taking over in the saddle.

Conclusion

In summary, it could pay to take Harry Angel on with one at a bigger price given his poor record at the track, with last year’s winner The Tin Man making most appeal at around 8/1. Admittedly, others in the race have superior form, but he has fewer questions to answer than most in the circumstances – highly effective over C&D and likely to be spot on after his encouraging reappearance at Windsor – and this is expected to pan out perfectly for him, as he attempts to become the first back-to-back winner of this race since Right Boy in 1958/59.