Dewhurst Stakes preview: Too Darn good?

Saturday’s Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has the makings of a classic/Classic, with the first and second in the betting for next spring’s 2000 Guineas, as well as the general fifth, sixth and seventh-favourites, all amongst the 12 entries.

This weekend’s Group 1 has long been seen as one of the major signposts towards the first Classic of the following season, with Churchill (2016/17) the most recent to do the double, following in the footsteps of Zafonic, Pennekamp, Rock of Gibraltar, Frankel and Dawn Approach.

Aidan O’Brien is usually the starting point for Group 1 previews – especially when he has won the last three renewals – but for once the market is topped by a non-Coolmore contender: Too Darn Hot.

Trained by John Gosden, Too Darn Hot is a brother to the very smart fillies So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar, both owned by Lord and Lady Webber, and it was perhaps this family connection that led to commentator Mike Cattermole accidentally calling Too Darn Hot a filly during her Champagne Stakes win at Doncaster last time. Were that the case, s(he)’d be a shoo-in for the Fillies Mile on Friday, but – as things stand – he’s still the one to beat in this race 24 hours later.

All class - Too Darn Hot lands the Champagne Stakes! @DoncasterRaces pic.twitter.com/MmqIeRr0It

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) September 15, 2018

Too Darn Hot is right up there with the best in the division and a hugely exciting prospect, though it is worth noting that he lengthened well from a strong gallop last time; already proven over a mile, he wouldn’t want this first foray into Group 1 company to turn into a tactical sprint.

In contrast, Advertise might find that scenario playing to his strengths. He won a no-more-than-average renewal of the July Stakes (by two lengths from Konchek) in July and didn’t need to improve when following up in a five-runner renewal of the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last time by half a length from So Perfect, leading early and again approaching the final furlong before keeping on well. He was helped by his main market rival underperforming as he became the first UK-trained winner of the race in 21 years, but the form is working out fairly well (three of the four beaten horses have improved since).

"He still had plenty left," says @FrankieDettori on Phoenix winner Advertise. "He has a great temperament and really wants to do it for you." pic.twitter.com/VkbI4GXpdX

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) August 12, 2018

Advertise was a length second to Calyx (first home in his group) in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his only other start, so certainly has an attractive profile, and though he has only raced over six furlongs so far, he should prove as effective at this trip.

The Dewhurst market at the time of writing suggests that the general 5/1 chances Anthony Van Dyck and Ten Sovereigns are equally as likely to run (or not) here. They clearly lead the O’Brien challenge, and if one of them does run then they will be a much shorter price, but it’s very hard to know which will show, if either.

Anthony Van Dyck has already proven himself a very smart colt, his wins including the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown in July and Futurity Stakes at the Curragh (by half a length from Christmas) in August. He took his form up another notch – despite having his winning run ended – when one and a quarter lengths second of seven to Quorto in the National Stakes at the Curragh last time, leading briefly two furlongs out but unable to hold off a potential top-notcher late on. He’s a talented, uncomplicated sort who is open to further progress, so is entitled to plenty of respect.

Until next year for Quorto - the Group 1 @Goffs1866 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes winner will be put away for the remainder of the season ahead of a 2000 Guineas bid next...

pic.twitter.com/lpoICcQ4Uf

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) September 26, 2018

Ten Sovereigns was hugely impressive when winning a 25-runner maiden at the Curragh in August by seven lengths, and duly took step up to pattern company in his stride – oozing class once again – when following up in Round Tower Stakes there (by three and three quarter lengths) in September. He completed his hat-trick in the Middle Park Stakes here last time by half a length from Jash, tanking along before quickening to lead two furlongs out and always holding on. He’s speedily-bred on the male side (by Norfolk Stakes and Prix Morny winner No Nay Never), but his dam won over 1¼m, and he shapes as if this extra furlong will be within range, so must be very high on any shortlist.

Trying to think logically, this seven furlong trip could potentially suit Ten Sovereigns more, with the extra distance of the Futurity Trophy (formerly Racing Post Trophy) at Doncaster later this month a more appealing option for Anthony Van Dyck at this stage of their relative careers. Trying to second-guess the yard is tough, however, and it may even be that Royal Lodge winner Mohawk becomes their number one hope once declarations are made on Thursday, having attracted some support earlier in the week.

Mohawk wins the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes to complete a 1-2-3 for Aidan O'Brien 👏 pic.twitter.com/1NFpJoW4YB

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) September 29, 2018

Mohawk improved significantly last time, leading home a 1-2-3 for the yard, after mercifully being taken out of the firing line of some of the top juveniles, having been behind Anthony Van Dyck the last twice, as well as Quorto in the National. Christmas, who also made the frame in both the Futurity and National, looks the pick of the other five Ballydoyle entries.

The plot thickens, however, with Sangarius.

A big, rangy colt who is from the family of the high-class Coronation Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, and Jacques le Marois winner Banks Hill, Sangarius shaped well when winning a minor event (full of longer-term prospects) on the July Course in August by a neck from Bangko. He confirmed that debut promise – and overcame inexperience, to boot – when following up in a listed race at Doncaster last month by two and a quarter lengths from Dubai Dominion, going with enthusiasm and kept up to work once leading over a furlong out.

Exciting horse - Sangarius remains unbeaten with a commanding victory in the @weatherbysltd Flying Scotsman Stakes at @DoncasterRaces for Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute. The Kingman colt has Dewhurst and Vertem Futurity Trophy (formerly Racing Post Trophy) entries pic.twitter.com/f8mcwlTDXs

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) 14 September 2018

Sangarius is a very exciting prospect who will get a mile this year (also has a Futurity Trophy entry), but is well worth his place in this line-up first.

Finally, Kuwait Currency deserves more than just a passing mention. He was a complete no show on debut on the July Course but has shown useful form in two starts since, making all when winning a minor event at Lingfield in August by six lengths from Global Warning before following up in a listed race over a mile at Salisbury last time by one and three quarter lengths from Dark Jedi, staying on to lead entering the final furlong and keeping on strongly. That latest run is working out well (fifth and sixth have won since, second and third both finished runner-up on their next starts), but he will need to take another large step forward in this exalted company.

Conclusion

A terrific race in prospect, though there’s no guarantee that Ten Sovereigns or Anthony Van Dyck will run. It’s hard to know how the market will react should either be declared, but they would be big dangers to impressive Champagne Stakes winner Too Darn Hot. As things stand, however, the last-named looks the one to beat once more. The long-striding Sangarius is respected, though – like the selection – he wouldn’t want this to develop into a tactical race, in contrast to Advertise who has already proven himself to be one of the best sprinters in the age group. The last-named – who has had this race as a target for a while – is a tempting each-way option, but it’s a little disconcerting that So Perfect and The Irish Rover, both down the pecking order at Ballydoyle, got as close as they did to him in the Phoenix.

Recommended bet:

Back Too Darn Hot to win Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes at Evens