Betfair Chase Cue Card jockey change: Three wrongs don’t make a right

We wrote about a then-17-year-old Harry Cobden in the Rising Stars section of our Horses To Follow book for the 2016/17 jumps season, highlighting his breakthrough performances which included a win aboard Old Guard in the previous season’s Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. With less than a fortnight before that race takes place once more, Cobden has hit the headlines again as the beneficiary of a high-profile jockey change for the top-class Cue Card.

Trained by Colin Tizzard - and viewed by many as a fans’ favourite - the enthusiastic Cue Card has held his head high (literally) in many of the top chases over the past five seasons. Second to Sprinter Sacre in the 2012 Arkle, Cue Card has since added 10 wins, eight of which were at the top level, including three victories in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

Paddy Brennan first took the reins on Cue Card for the 2015 Charlie Hall – a three and a quarter length win over Dynaste – and has ridden the horse on every start since. However, there have been several notable lows to accompany the obvious highs:

• 2015/16: After wins in the Betfair Chase and King George, Cue Card was sent off at just 5/2 for the following spring’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Still travelling well on the heels of the leaders, with dreams of the £1m bonus for winning all three races still very much alive, Cue Card and Brennan crashed to the floor three out after a rare jumping lapse.
• 2016/17: After a second win in the Betfair Chase sandwiched by defeats in the Charlie Hall and King George, Cue Card was well-fancied for the Gold Cup but he failed to negotiate the same third-last fence, under more serious pressure this time.
• 2017/18: In the process of running well on his return from seven months off, albeit too far out to suggest where he'd have finished, Cue Card was upsides the leaders when falling five out in the latest renewal of the Charlie Hall.

In contrast to the dejected figure that he cut at Cheltenham, there was a trace of a rueful, almost disbelieving smile on Brennan’s face after the Wetherby fall. As at Cheltenham, Cue Card just failed to take off properly and Brennan reported afterwards that he felt the low sun was the main reason behind the fall.

It’s still unclear as to whose decision it was to plump for Cobden over Brennan ahead of the Betfair Chase at the end of this month, however it is the latest blow for the older jockey in a career that has seen his mental strength tested on more than one occasion. Just months after partnering Inglis Drever to success in the 2007 World Hurdle, Brennan lost his job with trainer Howard Johnson, and he had to cope with a similar scenario when Sam Twiston-Davies – son of trainer Nigel - was preferred to Brennan as that stable’s number one jockey in 2011.

But have connections made the right decision? Is Cue Card less likely to fall for Cobden?

The figures below, which cover the last five years, include the rider’s number of rides compared to their falls and unseats. For context, the average fall/unseat rider percentage is 2.97% for hurdles and 7.41% for chases. Also provided is an Impact Value (IV) which considers other variables such as the course that the rides have taken place at.

Whilst the image above clearly shows that Brennan’s numbers are better than Cobden’s with Brennan better than average over both hurdles and fences, one major caveat is that the timescale includes Cobden’s formative, learning years in the saddle. This is a period where one would automatically expect more incidents, whether due to a young rider’s lack of experience, tactical naivety or even abundance of bravery.

The table below uses the same criteria but shows just this season’s numbers.

With the caveat of a greatly reduced sample size, looking purely at this season doesn’t suggest that Cobden is any more proficient at maintaining the partnership for his experience. With slightly poor timing, he has in fact suffered three fall or unseats in his last nine chase rides since October 29.

Of course, these are just numbers that do not consider the class of animal that has been ridden, nor do they take into account any personal relationship that has built up between Cobden and Cue Card on the gallops. One thing in Cobden’s favour, is that his riding style should, in theory, suit the horse.

The visual below shows that – compared to the “average” jockey – Cobden favours a more prominent style, doing especially well when riding horses in the first half of the field. Though held up as a young bumper horse, Cue Card has by-and-large been ridden fairly prominently since.

The class of Cue Card is not in question, but the 12-year-old’s jumping is, and there will be a huge amount of pressure on Cobden when the pair team up at Haydock. Cobden has spoken about the “massive opportunity for a young jockey” to ride such a high-profile horse, however let’s hope that Cue Card – who is not the biggest - consents to lift his legs this time. Should he not, then this jockey change could feasibly do more harm than good to the talented young rider’s confidence – and, potentially - career.