Coronation Stakes: Nemoralia can continue progression

Just four fillies have completed the 1000 Guineas/Coronation Stakes double this century (the most recent was Sky Lantern in 2013), and after Minding followed the path of last year’s Guineas winner Legatissimo and stepped up in trip for the Oaks at Epsom, there will seemingly be no Newmarket/Royal Ascot double done again this year either. Minding is still one of three co-favourites with most book makers for the Coronation Stakes, but it seems unlikely that she will run at Ascot after a busy period which saw her contest both the English and Irish Guineas as well as the Oaks.

However, the Guineas form may well be well represented by the second, Ballydoyle, and she was better than the bare result at Newmarket after being caught further back than ideal and having had to barge her way into the clear, by which time Minding already had the race sealed. Ballydoyle – already a Group 1 winner after her Prix Marcel Boussac win at Longchamp on her final start of last season – is a strong Coronation Stakes candidate on form, though it is a slight concern that she missed the Irish Guineas (her intended target) due to unsatisfactory blood results and then was not ready to take up her Oaks entry, either. If over her problems she will arrive here with an excellent chance (trainer Aidan O’Brien mentioned this race or the Prix de Diane as her next target), but from an ante-post perspective, there are more solid options.

The third member of the trio of current ante-post favourites for the Coronation Stakes is Nemoralia, and with no doubts about her wellbeing or participation she could be the one to be with at this stage. Nemoralia was an eye-catching third on her final two-year-old start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (came with a strong late challenge and probably should have won), and made amends for that loss with a career-best effort on her three-year-old debut when winning a seven-runner listed race at York’s Dante meeting impressively by six lengths. Though that was just a listed race, Nemoralia achieved a Timeform rating that puts her second (behind only Minding) overall here, and with more to come based on her largely progressive profile, she makes plenty of appeal.

Irish Guineas winner Jet Setting is certainly worthy of a mention after lowering the colours of dual classic winner Minding at the Curragh last time (pair ten lengths clear of the third). Connections will be hoping that the forecast rain later this week arrives, as Jet Setting clearly relished dominating the Irish Guineas on testing ground, and although she would merit plenty of respect if it turned up soft at Ascot, her reliance on those conditions makes her opposable at this stage, considering she was well beaten by both Minding and Ballydoyle on good ground at Newmarket.

Poule d'Essai des Pouliches second and third, Nathra and Qemah (who will need to learn to settle to realise her full potential) may also play a part, but overall the most attractive option at this stage appears to be Nemoralia, who holds a slight edge over both Ballydoyle and Jet Setting on Timeform ratings and may have more to offer given her very progressive profile.