Coral Eclipse Preview: So near yet Masar

Saturday’s Eclipse holds a notable position in the British Flat racing calendar, as it is traditionally the first clash between the classic and the older generations.

Its name is derived from the undefeated racehorse, who was at the height of his powers in the late 18^th-century, and whose influence on the bloodstock industry is such that 95% of all thoroughbred racehorses today are direct descendants.

Epsom form will be key

The Timeform ratings suggest that the classic generation hold the upper hand heading into this, with the Derby 1-3-4, Masar, Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior heading the 10-runner field at this stage.

As you would expect, it is Masar who sits at the top of the figures, and he sets the standard here, having reversed the Guineas form with Saxon Warrior at Epsom last time. It’s interesting that Godolphin have opted for this race over last week’s Irish Derby (he was supplemented for this race on Monday), a path taken by only two of the previous ten Derby winners, Sea The Stars and Golden Horn, both of whom were successful. In receipt of weight from the older horses, he will be difficult to beat if in the same form as Epsom with the drop back in trip no problem.

Masar wins the Investec Derby at @EpsomRacecourse !

Watch LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/DSIoqamtAy

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) June 2, 2018

The biggest threat therefore will seemingly come from Roaring Lion, who lost little in defeat at Epsom last time. Whilst he stayed the longer trip in the Derby, he was run out of second place late on by Dee Ex Bee, and as such it could be that a mile and a quarter proves to be his optimum trip. He has been holding his form well since the Craven, producing a career best last time, and another bold bid is likely.

Fourth at Epsom was Saxon Warrior, the only one of the trio to run since, finishing third in last week’s Irish Derby. The messages are mixed in terms of whether he will take his chance here, but he has gone backwards since his success in the Guineas, appearing destined for greatness after that, but now looking in danger of not even being considered the best of his generation. Whilst he can have excuses for his Epsom run, when short of room three furlongs out, they were harder to come by at Curragh, and his next run is very much a redemption mission.

The older generation will be looking to stamp their authority

Heading the charge for the older generation is Hawkbill, who won this race as a three-year-old himself back in 2016. However, he is yet to reach top form this summer, disappointing in the Coronation Cup at Epsom, though he bounced back to some extent when third in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot a fortnight ago. The five-year-old has shown his best form when able to dictate from the front, and he would be a big threat if repeating the performance which saw him win the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March – where his jockey enforced such tactics.

Another of the older runners who’s likely to be prominent at an early stage is Forest Ranger, who has proved to be a different proposition since being gelded over the winter, taking pattern races at both Newmarket and Chester, most recently producing a very smart effort to dominate the Group 2 Huxley Stakes. Such a performance has earned him a seat at the top table, and whilst he would need another sizeable chunk of improvement to take this, he may well outrun his current double-figure odds.

Forest Ranger wins Homeserve Huxley Stakes at Eminent struggles at @ChesterRaces - watch LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/uGQs9ZpsGE

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 11, 2018

Completing the challenge of the older generation are the Aidan O’Brien pair of Cliffs of Moher and Yutacan. The former has been kept busy this term, running twice at Royal Ascot and matching the pick of this season’s form when third in the Hardwicke. However, he has never gone on from his second in last year’s Derby, and will again likely prove vulnerable here, as will Yutacan, who will need to step up markedly on his effort to win Sunday’s Group 3 International Stakes at Curragh.

The remaining three-year-old challenge

Aidan O’Brien, unsurprisingly, is represented by five of the ten runners after the five-day declarations, and his challenge is rounded off by the three-year-olds Happily and Rostropovich. The filly Happily will receive both an age and a sex allowance, and whilst she was a beaten favourite in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas, she matched her peak two-year-old form when fourth in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last month, and could have more to offer at this trip. Rostropovich continues to progress with racing this season, but he was seen to best effect when having the run of the race in a tactical Irish Derby last Saturday, and he will need to raise his game further to feature.

The complete unknown quantity in the race is Raymond Tusk, who made a big impression when winning on debut in April, looking a pattern performer in the making. We have only seen him once since, though, and he disappointed, failing to build on that promise when finishing second in another minor event. This is a big step up in grade, but his connections clearly think highly of him, for all he has plenty to find on form.

Conclusion

The market for the Eclipse is dominated by the three-year-olds, and it is the Epsom hero Masar who is rightfully at the top of the betting. It is interesting that he heads here instead of attempting to complete the Derby double, and looks to hold leading claims of picking up a second career Group 1. Roaring Lion is yet to beat Masar in three attempts, but he is likely to make another bold bid, whilst it would be no surprise should Forest Ranger outruns his odds, particularly if he’s allowed to dominate from the front.

Recommendation:

Back Masar at 11/8 in Saturday’s Eclipse at Sandown