Commonwealth Cup Preview: Sioux can rule the Nation

The Commonwealth Cup has been a welcome addition to the three-year-old sprint division, and has been won by some top-class performers since its inaugural running in 2015, notably Muhaarar who finished that season as the Champion Sprinter in Europe. A race unusually given Group 1 status right off the bat, it has been well supported by trainers in all three runnings so far, but this year’s renewal is set to see the biggest field yet (22) go to post, and it isn’t lacking on quality, either.

As the Early Position Map below demonstrates, nearly half of the field usually race prominently or lead, which will ensure a strong pace, and may set it up for one of the closers; as we saw in the King’s Stand on Tuesday it is hard to make all in a sprint on the straight course at Ascot.

Other results on Tuesday backed up the impression that it was an advantage to be drawn low on the straight course – which can often be the case at Ascot – but in this instance the majority of the pace is in the high numbers, which should see those drawn on the stands side in a better light.

Rematch

Sands of Mali has had an In-Play positional figure of 1 in three of his last five starts and seems sure to make another bold bid from the front, breaking from stall 22. He has looked an improved model this season, beating Invincible Army by a nose in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last time. However, unlike Haydock, Ascot places more emphasis on stamina rather than speed; Sands of Mali was also given an in-play ‘p’ symbol last time, which signifies that he pulled hard in the race.

🗣 "I didn't know which way it had gone on the bob. He's so tough and genuine."

Sands Of Mali edges Sandy Lane thriller at @haydockraces.

Replay and reaction 👇https://t.co/uaEaDjNXPvpic.twitter.com/nn2F20WHhB

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) May 26, 2018

It wouldn’t be a surprise were Invincible Army to reverse the form, though, especially given how impressive he was when beating Eqtidaar by one and a half lengths in the Pavilion Stakes over C&D on his seasonal reappearance, for which he was given an in-play ‘r’ symbol, which denotes he responded well to pressure; an attribute which will stand him in good stead here.

More to come?

Eqtidaar is drawn on the far side in stall 3, and he isn’t a horse to underestimate despite his double-figure price. He has plenty about him physically, and wasn’t seen to best effect when beaten two and a half lengths in a listed race at Newbury last time, drawn on the wrong side and left with too much to do. Eqtidaar will more than likely be ridden with restraint again given he can be keen early, so connections will be hoping that Equilateral (stall 2), Actress (stall 5) and Cardsharp (stall 7) all go forward. If they do, he almost certainly has the ability to out-run his odds.

Equilateral, who stormed clear of his rivals when winning a minor event at Doncaster last month, has been well-backed for this race in the last couple of weeks. He is drawn next to Eqtidaar and is likely to be ridden more prominently based on our Early Position Map. It was hard not to be impressed by the manner of his win last time, and it was backed up by a good time, too, but whether he should be favourite for a race with this much depth is debateable.

50/1 last week, Equilateral is no bigger than 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal @Ascot after Saturday's demolition job at @DoncasterRaces. "I think he's very smart," says @cbhills pic.twitter.com/lVS6wKd6sZ

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) 21 May 2018

The one that stands out, from a pace and price angle, though, is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Sioux Nation. He seems to be versatile as to how he’s ridden, having recorded an In-Play running figure of 4 when winning the Norfolk Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago, but was ridden more prominently when successful in the Lacken Stakes on his latest start at Naas. That win stretched his unbeaten record on ground firmer than good to four, and, with a nice draw in stall 15, Ryan Moore should get the perfect tow into the race.

Conclusion

This looks a competitive renewal, expected to be run at a strong gallop, and preference is for Sioux Nation. He tops Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, looks well-drawn, and has the ground in his favour. Of the rest, it would be no surprise to see Eqtidaar go well at bigger odds, sure to be suited by coming off a strong pace having left the impression last time that he has a bigger performance in him.