Clarence House Chase: Can Un de Sceaux complete a hat-trick?

This weekend the ten-year-old Un de Sceaux will bid to make history in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot by winning the race three times in succession. He has won the last two renewals – last year’s was run at Cheltenham due to Ascot’s meeting being abandoned – at odds of 2/1-on each time, and at the time of writing he is again a short-priced favourite to beat a maximum of seven rivals.

Hat-trick heroes

The most recent horse to complete a hat-trick of wins in a graded race was The New One in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock last year, who coincidently will bid for the four-timer this weekend. The entries at this stage suggest it again isn’t going to be a strong renewal but, given the level of form The New One has shown so far this season, he will have to be at his best to win.

WATCH: A third success for The New One (6-4) in the https://t.co/4b1Srkfhe3 Champion Hurdle Trial Hurdle at Haydock. pic.twitter.com/nyHph2YDYJ

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) January 21, 2017

Reve de Sivola also completed a hat-trick of wins in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in 2014:

Proved at least as good as ever in landing this race for the third year running, showing his form for the first time since last year's win, his rider judging the pace well and ensuring a strong emphasis on stamina.

One of the best staying hurdlers of the modern era was Big Bucks, and he made history when winning the Long Distance Hurdle, Long Walk Hurdle, Stayers’ Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle all three times or more during an unbeaten period of nearly four years – his run of 18 straight wins is the longest ever recorded in National Hunt racing. The Timeform report for his win in the 2012 Liverpool Hurdle pays tribute to his success:

Made history, his winning streak of 17 the longest ever recorded in National Hunt racing, testament to his talent and toughness, whilst his stable deserves plenty of credit, too; in performance terms, this was a long way short of Big Bucks' best, left as he was with a simple opportunity, but he could hardly have done it any more easily, cruising to the front approaching three out and stretching clear between the last two before heavily eased.

One step too far

There are also several horses who failed at the final hurdle when going for a hat-trick of big-race wins. Cue Card won the Betfair Chase at Haydock in 2015 and 2016, but looked a shadow of his former self when heavily beaten by Bristol de Mai in this year’s renewal. Now a twelve-year-old, it is possible that age is catching up with him, though it was only three weeks on from when falling at Wetherby on his reappearance, and his next run should reveal more.

CUE CARD wins his third Betfair Chase after seeing off Coneygree in an epic tussle at Haydock - leg one of the Triple Crown in the bag! pic.twitter.com/6BkIfySOf0

— Channel 4 Racing (@Channel4Racing) November 19, 2016

Silviniaco Conti also fell short in the 2015 King George at Kempton having won the previous two renewals with authority, as the Timeform report clarifies:

Went for a circuit like the horse that had won the last two runnings of this race, but his frailties were all too apparent after halfway and it will be a masterful piece of training to get him competitive again, even at Aintree in the spring; led, jumped well, went with enthusiasm, headed tenth, weakened fourteenth, pulled up three out.

He did actually bounce back by winning the Ascot Chase on his next start, but that would prove to be his final career win.

Oscar Whisky was a top-class hurdler at his peak, but for whatever reason lost his way during the middle of the 2012/13 season and in turn was unable to complete a hat-trick of wins in the Aintree Hurdle, as the Timeform report explains:

Oscar Whisky, who’d won this race for the previous two years, is operating below his best at present, nowhere near as disappointing here as in the World Hurdle but certainly below form; prominent, driven three out, not quicken after next; it might be that a hard race in the Cleeve (over 3m in the mud) has just knocked him back and a break until the autumn could do him the world of good.

He went on to make up into a very smart chaser the following season, winning three times in all, including the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.

Is Un de Sceaux up to the task?

Un de Sceaux is currently 4 lb clear of his nearest rival God’s Own on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and in theory should be too good for these. Admittedly, he was left with a simple task on his return at Cork last month, nothing else coping with the testing conditions as well as him, but all his old zest still looked intact.

The fly in the ointment is perhaps the up-and-coming Brain Power, who has been well supported in recent days, now a best-priced 11/4 having been as big as 8/1 earlier in the week. Brain Power would have only finished second had he stood up in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase last time, but nonetheless there was plenty to like about his performance.

However, whether an unexposed novice will be able to trouble an on-song Un de Sceaux is debatable; he can become the first three-time winner of the Clarence House.