City of York Stakes Position Map Preview: Aye Eye

Working out which horses will be suited by the strong pace in the City of York Stakes is a much less daunting task than the Ebor 40 minutes later, though it seems likely that Sir Chauvelin, Blakeney Point and last year’s winner Nakeeta will have a fair crack at winning the valuable handicap from off the pace; it’s a long time since Give The Slip made virtually all under Pat Eddery in the 2000 renewal.

The City of York Stakes was won by the three-year-old filly Talaayeb 12 months ago, who beat 17 rivals, but this year’s renewal features just half the number of runners. The Early Position Map below shows the likeliest pace angles, with a strong tempo expected.

Donjuan Triumphant and Tabarrak should help ensure a true gallop throughout, the former having made most of the running when a creditable quarter of a length fourth to Sir Dancealot in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last time. Those positive tactics saw him bounce back to form, matching his best efforts, and there’s no reason to suggest connections will revert to more patient tactics from the horse’s good draw here. Five-time winner Tabarrak consistently races prominently, including when a respectable two and a half lengths fourth to Sir Dancealot in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time. The latter has franked both the Criterion and Lennox form by winning the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury earlier this month.

Sir Dancealot also links the form of Suedois who only went down by a short head in the Lennox having hit the front in the final furlong, his first start over seven furlongs in almost a year. Admittedly, the winner would have been an unlucky loser had he not got up, but it was another excellent performance from Suedois following on from his quarter of a length third to Beat The Bank in the Summer Mile at Ascot in July. Suedois has been ridden more patiently since finishing third in this race last year and the make-up of this race looks sure to suit this uncomplicated sort.

Stablemate So Beloved, who was second in the Criterion in June, is also likely to be nearer last than first early on, as he was when not beaten far into fifth a year ago. He ran twice in two days at Goodwood, getting no sort of run in the Lennox and then not far off his best when travelling well in the Sussex before fading late on. He hasn’t won since May 2016 but a repeat of his peak efforts could see him hit the frame at a decent price.

Lightning Spear wins for the first time at Group One level on his 16th attempt as he lands the Sussex Stakes @Goodwood_Races under @oismurphy. 👏 #QGF

Results ➡️ https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/3W5WD6d1bE

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) 1 August 2018

Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are narrowly topped by market leader Expert Eye. He was ridden more prominently than usual in a tactical renewal of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last time, finishing a creditable one and a half lengths second to Lightning Spear, and is clearly at home at that venue, having won the Vintage Stakes at the same meeting a year earlier. Expert Eye’s best effort this year was his barnstorming four and a half length win in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he made rapid and eye-catching headway two furlongs out before forging right away inside the final 100 yards. A strong pace seems key to him whatever the trip, and he has to be respected taking on his elders again here.

All of Above The Rest’s wins have come on left-handed or straight tracks, and he again showed his wellbeing when following up his C&D win with victory in the six-furlong Chipchase Stakes (by one and a half lengths from Yafta) at Newcastle, both in June. He hit new heights there at the age of seven, storming through to lead inside the final furlong when nothing else from the second half of the field got anywhere near the prominent racers, and he’s respected here, for all he faces a different test.

The veteran Gordon Lord Byron is also a proven York winner, having won over C&D back in 2012. He was only seventh in the most recent renewal of this race and hasn’t looked like matching his peak efforts in five starts this season, for all that his second in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes last time was one of his better efforts of the year.

Last season’s Horris Hill Stakes winner Nebo was only making up the numbers when last of 14 in the 2000 Guineas when last seen, but he clearly wasn’t right judging by his subsequent absence. He has a bit to find here, as does fellow three-year-old and International Handicap runner-up Arbalet, though he does at least have a progressive profile this season. He’s not always been the best in the stalls (withdrawn prior to latest run) but could find himself in a strong position to strike in this smaller field, likely to be ridden closer to the pace than either Expert Eye or Suedois.

Conclusion

The market has this as a two-horse race, however Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings suggest this could be a much more keenly contested affair. So Beloved should run well, while Arbalet’s recent handicap form shouldn’t be underestimated, however the likely strong pace should suit both Suedois and Expert Eye, with preference for the latter. He’s still unexposed after seven starts and has produced very smart performances on his last two starts, most recently in a falsely-run race.

Recommended bet:

Back Expert Eye to win Saturday’s City of York Stakes at 7/4