Chester May Festival 2016: Day One Preview

Steve Rogers has been Chester Cup favourite since his return win in a two-mile Kempton handicap three weeks ago, his sixth success from his last nine starts. This gelding may be a five-year-old but he’s progressed steadily throughout his career and may do better still, with his response to pressure one of his key assets. He’s Timeform top rated, a course winner and has landed a low stall in 3, so he’s definitely on for the shortlist.

Second on the ratings is Gang Warfare who has been highly progressive since he joined Simon Crisford, winning handicaps on five of his eight outings for the trainer. Gang Warfare completed the four-timer in typical fashion at Wolverhampton last time, making strong headway around three furlongs out and keeping on well, and he too can go close from stall 2 if staying this distance (has won over an extended two miles).

Richard Fahey has won two of the last nine Chester Cups and his Gabrial’s King is back for more after finishing fourth last year. He went off the boil after winning at this track last August but ran well after seven months off when third to Mirsaale at Ripon 11 days ago. Clearly, he’s effective at this course and comes into the race on the back of an encouraging return, but his form was rather up and down last year.

Gabrial’s King has been done no favours by the draw in stall 17 either, likewise the same connections’ Angel Gabrial (stall 18) who finished second in this race in 2014 but was only eleventh (from stall 16) 12 months ago.

Also drawn wide is Nakeeta in stall 15. Nakeeta ended last season in top form, winning two big-field handicaps over a mile and three quarters at Haydock, including the Old Borough Cup, and the feeling is he possesses abundant stamina.

No Heretic excelled himself when fifth in the 2013 Goodwood Cup but bombed as favourite on his subsequent start that year. He made his first start since in a novice hurdle for a new trainer (Nicky Henderson) early last month, showing fair form as he finished third wearing a first-time hood (retained here), and he’s landed a good draw in stall 4. He’s not had much racing for an eight-year-old and could run well under Jamie Spencer.

John Reel can bounce back from his rare poor effort last time from stall 5, but he hasn’t won since February 2015 and looks more each-way than win material (sixth last year). William of Orange would have place claims on his best form for Sir Mark Prescott, but he was disappointing making his handicap debut over hurdles in a first-time tongue strap last time (now with Donald McCain, had won over timber in January) and will break from stall 14.

Another horse with a wide draw (stall 16) to overcome is last year's runner-up Quick Jack, the mount of Ryan Moore. His trainer Tony Martin also runs Heartbreak City who will break from stall 6 under Aidan O’Brien’s son Donnacha, who is good value for his 5-lb claim. Heartbreak City won a two-mile handicap at York last August but he does need to prove himself over this distance.

Silver Concorde completes the Irish raid, and he’s a fascinating runner given he landed the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in 2014 and has won three of his four starts on the level since, two of those in big fields. He ran no sort of race in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in March, however, and odds of 8/1 look no more than fair.

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Current favourite for the Cheshire Oaks is Somehow, who could not follow in her dam Alexandrova’s footsteps by winning as a two-year-old, but after showing abundant promise in a Leopardstown maiden in October, she showed improved form to get off the mark over 10 furlongs when returned to the same course last month. That form has been franked by the runner-up Shamreen winning easily at Gowran Park since. Somehow looked stamina-laden that day and will appreciate the extra furlong here, as well as even further in time.

Dessertoflife won twice as a two-year-old last term, including success in a Group 3 at Baden- Baden in September. Though not considered a strong race by British standards, Mark Johnston’s filly dominated throughout, recording a career best in the process. She was subsequently outclassed in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket in October and should be happier here, though carrying a penalty here makes life tough.

Barry Hills won this race six times between 1987 and 2005 and his son Charlie will be hoping to following in his footsteps with Moorside. She shaped nicely in two maidens towards the end of last season, and she looks to possess more stamina than perhaps her breeding (out of a sprint winner) might suggest. Hills also saddles Doubly Motivated who will need to improve significantly on her reappearance in a minor event at Ascot last month where she was well held; perhaps this step up in trip will help (dam stayed well).

John Gosden won this race in 2010 with Gertrude Bell, and has saddled four placed horses since. Pursuitofthestars finally got off the mark at Chelmsford last month—at the fifth time of asking—and she is respected, though to date she hasn’t lived up to her 320,000 guineas price tag.

Diamonds Pour Moi knew her job when winning a Kempton maiden on her debut last November (form not yet properly tested though some big stables were represented). She made a positive impression there and is bred to be useful.

Mirsaalah has been progressing well in fillies’ handicaps and it wouldn’t take a great leap of faith to see her involved if improving again, having recorded a career best when successful at Nottingham on her seasonal reappearance. David Evans’ Play Gal, a winner of a Redcar maiden in October, completes the field.

In summary, it’s hard to look past Somehow who beat a next-time-out winner at Leopardstown last month. Her trainer Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last eight renewals of this race, so he knows exactly the type of filly needed to handle the unique Roodeye track. Dessertoflife is the main danger on ratings, but is not sure to stay this far. A bigger danger to Somehow could be the Charlie Hills-trained duo, Doubly Motivated and Moorside, who should both relish the step up in distance.