Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview: River to dig deep once more

The first Cheltenham Gold Cup took place in July 1819 as a Flat race; but – taking one meaning of the word – there’s nothing limp or deflated about this year’s renewal. Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate – three triple winners of the race - are behind us, as are the days of the odds-on favourite in the ‘Blue Riband’ of British and Irish jumps racing.

Aside from Best Mate, Kauto Star is the only horse this century to have gone off odds-on, when he was second to stablemate Denman a year after first winning the race in 2007, and then when falling (already beaten at the time) in the 2010 renewal. Recent renewals have enjoyed a more open feel to them, albeit still with some joy for favourite backers thanks to victories for Long Run (2011), Bobs Worth (2013) and Don Cossack (2016), all since Kauto Star became the first horse to regain the Gold Cup in 2009.

Pinpointing the favourite this year isn’t the point of this preview, nor is it particularly easy (will Irish support for Presenting Percy outweigh the ground turning in Native River’s favour?), but the market has identified that pair (and Clan des Obeaux) as the main protagonists.

Native River was third in this race two years ago before winning both starts in an abridged 2017/18 campaign, namely the Denman Chase at Newbury (by 12 lengths from Cloudy Dream) and this race (by four and a half lengths from Might Bite, finding plenty late on having looked vulnerable turning in).

Native River wins the Cheltenham Gold Cup, fending off Might Bite to hand Richard Johnson his second Gold Cup win@colintizzard @dickyjohnson77#TheFestival pic.twitter.com/4aCPGP81zi

— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) March 16, 2018

Native River wasn’t quite at his best when placed in both the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Bristol de Mai and the King George VI Chase at Kempton won by Clan des Obeaux earlier this season, but those efforts are easily excused, as he wasn’t faced with a stern enough examination of stamina on either occasion. A supremely tough and genuine front runner, he should bounce back to his best now defending his crown under optimum conditions.

Clan des Obeaux produced four very smart efforts last term (his second season over fences) but has taken his form to a new level on his last two starts, improving upon his fourth to Bristol de Mai at Haydock when winning the King George by one and a half lengths from Thistlecrack) in December. He faced a straightforward task—but followed up in style—when beating the proven Grade 1 winner Terrefort by 11 lengths in the re-routed Denman Chase at Ascot last time, jumping very well and quickening clear from the last. He stays 3¼m (at Haydock), and though this track is more testing, he shapes as if he will handle the extra emphasis on stamina. Adaptable in regards to ground conditions, he rates a leading contender.

The spanner in the works, for those whose preferences are towards recent (chasing) form at the top level, is Presenting Percy. He won the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran last year en-route to an emphatic win in the RSA Chase at this meeting (by seven lengths from Monalee), and landed the same hurdles race (by one and a quarter lengths from Bapaume) on his reappearance – and sole outing – this season. His unconventional campaign makes him something of a puzzle, but he has been primed to perfection to win at each of the last two festivals (won the Pertemps Final in 2017). He stays and jumps well, and is proven on all types of ground, so is afforded the utmost respect despite being yet to tackle the best the staying chase division has to offer.

The fellow Irish-trained horses Kemboy, Bellshill and Al Boum Photo are respected, despite their trainer Willie Mullins having remarkably never won the race. Kemboy is a progressive seven-year-old who won the Clonmel Oil Chase (by three lengths from Alpha des Obeaux) in November, before completing a four-timer in the Savills Chase (formerly known as the Lexus, by seven and a half lengths from Monalee, storming clear).

An annihilation! Kemboy puts in a emphatic display and routs them in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at @LeopardstownRC for Willie and David Mullins... pic.twitter.com/upkCNAutaI

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 28, 2018

That form is rock solid and Kemboy was going away again at the finish, so he should stay this longer trip. He remains open to further improvement over fences and is very much respected as a result.

Third behind Might Bite in the 2017 RSA Chase, Bellshill won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and Punchestown Gold Cup (by three quarters of a length from dual Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Djakadam) in 2017/18. He was easy to back and shaped as if better for the run when nine lengths fourth to Kemboy in the Savills Chase, and duly stepped up on that when winning the four-runner Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown (by a short head from Road To Respect, jumping superbly and responding well when coming under maximum pressure) last time.

Al Boum Photo won the Ryanair Gold Cup Novices' Chase at Fairyhouse (by a length from Shattered Love) in 2017/18, and looked in control when his rider took the wrong course late on in the Champion Novices' Chase won by The Storyteller at Punchestown on his final start that season. He was as good as ever when winning a listed event at Tramore (by six lengths from Total Recall) last time and may do better still over fences, with this longer trip likely to be within range. He seems to have gone under the radar somewhat, and looks overpriced at 16/1. Thyestes Chase winner Invitation Only needs to take another step forward, but is unexposed over this trip, and is another Mullins runner who could show up well at even bigger odds.

Former Festival heroes Might Bite and Thistlecrack are back for another crack. Last year’s runner-up Might Bite won the 2017 RSA Chase (in dramatic fashion, by a short-head from Whisper), and he added victories in the King George at Kempton and Bowl Chase at Aintree (by seven lengths from Bristol de Mai) last term.  He has been very disappointing on both starts this season, folding tamely (bled) in the King George last time, but this strong traveller is no forlorn hope if subsequent treatment for stomach ulcers has given him a new lease of life.

Thistlecrack was the leading staying hurdler in 2015/16 and has since developed into a top-class chaser (despite injury problems), winning the King George (as a novice, by three and a quarter lengths from Cue Card) in 2016/17. He’s been lightly raced since, but made a solid reappearance when third in the Betfair Chase won by Bristol de Mai, before a good one and a half lengths second to Clan des Obeaux in the latest renewal of the King George. It would be no surprise to see him run well once more, but he’s likely to be vulnerable for win purposes.

His stablemate Elegant Escape, third in last year’s RSA, had a wind operation before winning a listed event at Sandown in November, and he improved again when following up in the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow (carried big weight, by one and a quarter lengths from Ramses de Teillee) in December. He was a good three quarter-length second to Frodon in the Cotswold Chase here last time, unsuited by the way the race developed, and is a thorough stayer who has a similar profile to Native River the year he was third behind Sizing John.

Frodon sees off Elegant Escape in BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase at @CheltenhamRaces

Watch the action LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/qB2NfPBi0y

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 26, 2019

Considering the strength in depth of his stable, it’s perhaps a surprise that the strongest hand that Gordon Elliott can play is Shattered Love. Her wins last term included the Neville Hotels Novices' Chase at Leopardstown and JLT Novices' Chase here (by seven lengths from Terrefort), but she produced a rare poor effort when well held behind Kemboy in the Savills Chase last time, reportedly returning with sore shins. She needs to bounce back here, but receives a handy weight allowance from her male rivals, and has place claims on the pick of her form, with this longer trip expected to suit.

Others to note include last year’s third Anibale Fly, who went on to be fourth to Tiger Roll in the Grand National at Aintree the following month. He was below par on his reappearance, but got back on track when second to Monalee in the 2½m Red Mills Chase at Gowran last time, and has place claims once more now back up to a more suitable trip. Though it’s always dangerous to write off a multiple Grade 1 winner, Bristol de Mai has made Haydock his home and has tended to struggle with these fences, for all that he was second in the 2016 JLT.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this looks as open a race as 12 months ago, but that renewal was dominated by Native River, and the hope is that these conditions will enable him to be as effective once again; he looks the best bet at a general 4/1. There’s a chance that Clan des Obeaux will get slightly forgotten about if the punters get stuck into Presenting Percy, but that wouldn’t be wise, and he’s expected to prove as big a danger as the cannily-campaigned Irish runner. At bigger prices, Anibale Fly, Elegant Escape and Invitation Only all have place claims, with a thorough test of stamina likely to suit all three.

Recommended bet:

Back Native River to win Friday’s Cheltenham Gold Cup at 4/1

*Please note, this preview was first published on Sunday