Radio
Url copied to clipboard.
What does it take to win a Cheltenham Festival Handicap?
With the meeting continuing to dominate the second half of the National Hunt season, the standards for scooping a handicap pot are as demanding as you’d expect.
Last season, all the winners from the hurdle races above went on to contest a Grade One on their next start which emphasises the level horses need to be capable of competing at. In addition, two of the victors (Supasundae and Presenting Percy) return to this year's festival at the top of Grade One markets.
The 2017 running of both the Ultima and the Brown Plate saw the winners posting efforts that wouldn’t have been out of place in the related Grade Ones at that year’s festival. Indeed, the winner of the latter - Road to Respect - is amongst the market principles for this season’s Gold Cup, while a third festival success for dual Ultima winner Un Temps Pour Tout would have been hard to discount had he not been ruled out through injury.
What have been the strongest handicaps on the clock this season?
Using an average timefigure of the first three home, the “best” five handicaps for each code are presented below:
Tigris River appeared to be on course for stepping up to higher company when landing the odds in the Galway Hurdle, running to a timefigure of 144. Despite disappointing in subsequent starts on softer ground, it would be no surprise to see him give a bold show in the County Hurdle should he take his chance.
Potentially the hottest handicap hurdle of the season formwise was run at Kempton, with the Henderson pair William Henry (150) and Diese Des Bieffes (136) likely to be at the top of many shortlists. The latter looks particularly well treated, up only 2 lb from Kempton and a novice very much on the upgrade. He would be of even greater interest in the Martin Pipe, potentially partnered by this year’s top conditional James Bowen.
Over the bigger obstacles, the Silver Cup at Ascot could hardly have worked out better. Winner Gold Present took the race with an impressive 156 timefigure and is still unexposed at the trip. It would not be a surprise to see him graduate from handicaps to graded company off the back of a strong showing at the festival. Also in the same race was last season’s Ultima second Singlefarmpayment who will line up from just 3 lb higher than 12 months ago; it is little surprise that the pair head up most books for this season’s renewal.
Novice Braqueur d’Or, who jumped and travelled perfectly well in a strong renewal of the Ladbrokes Trophy, is not as short in the betting for the Kim Muir, but looks to have a strong chance. Although one paced in the closing stages at Newbury, his ability to stay up in the front third of the field should stand him well at the festival.
Total Recall justifies favouritism in the @Ladbrokes Trophy Chase @NewburyRacing and becomes the first Irish-trained horse to win since 1980.#LWC #LadbrokesTrophy
— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) December 2, 2017
Results ▶️ https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/48pJGeZabw
Are handicaps that took place earlier in the season the right place to look for Cheltenham Festival handicap winners?
Judged on last season, possibly not. Of the ten conventional handicaps, seven were won by horses that had contested a graded race on their last start.
Two of those winners (outside of the Fred Winter and Close Brothers') were taken by novices and there are several such horses with strong time performances that would be of interest if not going for a graded opportunity.
Enniscoffey Oscar’s win at Doncaster was particularly notable for how he pulled away with the eventual second, and a timefigure of 143 suggests his opening handicap mark may slightly underestimate him.
Another novice with strong handicap claims is Divine Spear, who put up an impressive timefigure of 145 when taking an Ascot handicap. Back in novice company on his final start, the speedier track at Musselburgh did not play to his strengths and a well-run handicap at Cheltenham should suit much better.
At the other end of the spectrum, Traffic Fluide is a horse that has seen his mark tumble in the space of only three runs at the top level. Based on his Sandown second at the end of last season (timefigure of 150) and his Old Roan fourth at the start of this (141), a BHA mark 145 could prove very lenient
Anything with past Cheltenham form?
Whether you believe it is sufficiently factored into the market or not, knowledge that a horse can act in a competitive, well-run race at the course can only be a positive.
Five of last year’s handicap winners had all performed with distinction at the previous year’s festival, which is not an outlier by any means.
Although previous juvenile form tends largely to be treated with a degree of caution, 2017 Fred Winter winner Flying Tiger’s run in last month’s Kingwell was not without promise (timefigure of 143). Returned back to a big-field handicap (albeit on the New Course), his strong-travelling nature should revert to being more of an asset than a hindrance.
Despite needing the run in the aforementioned Old Roan Chase in October and having his chance compromised on his only other run this season, Bouvreuil put up a very solid timefigure of 147 in last season’s Brown Plate. He can run off 142 (3 lb lower than last year) and having finished no worse than third in all three of his festival appearances, few would begrudge him a first taste of success.
What are the best Cheltenham Festival 2018 handicap bets?
Diese Des Bieffes (Coral Cup / Martin Pipe)
Singlefarmpayment (Ultima / Kim Muir)
Braquer d’Or (Ultima / Kim Muir)
Divine Spear (Close Brothers / Grand Annual)
Bouvreuil (Brown Plate / Grand Annual)
Traffic Fluide (Brown Plate / Ultima)
Click here to find out more about jumps timefigures.
Timeform jumps timefigures are available in Timeform Race Cards and Timeform Race Passes.
.jpg&w=300)
.png&w=300)
