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For the second year in succession, the Cheltenham Festival will go ahead without the presence of 2015 Champion Hurdle winner, Faugheen. With both he and Annie Power on the sidelines, the 2017 renewal of the Champion Hurdle looks likely to be one of the most open in recent memory. Buveur D’air heads the betting at the time of writing, but J.P. McManus' six-year-old is trading at 3/1 with most firms and – to put that into some context – the Champion Hurdle favourite has not returned an SP that big since Back In Front and Hardy Eustace were sent off the 7/2 joint market-leaders in 2005.
The Champion Hurdle may lack a standout contender – in the betting at least - but the same cannot be said of the three remaining championship races: the Champion Chase, the Stayers’ Hurdle and the Gold Cup. Indeed, the respective market-leaders for that trio of prizes are quickly entering the hallowed territory of Cheltenham 'banker' and, with the Festival less than a month away, now is a good time to assess their relative chances, while also examining how the most recent hotpots have fared in the same events.
Douvan looks set to go off one of the shortest-priced favourites of the entire meeting in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The top spot in this race has seemingly been the preserve of the Willie Mullins-trained runner since his victory in last year's Arkle, and there has been little to alter that train of thought in the intervening months. However, it is worth providing a note of caution for those looking to take the short odds: five of the last seven favourites to have gone off at evens or shorter for the Champion Chase have met with defeat.
Moscow Flyer will perhaps be best remembered for his victories in this race in 2003 and 2005, but his tendency to make the odd serious mistake cost him the chance to add to his tally of 13 Grade 1 victories, and never more famously than when unseating as the 6/5-on favourite in the 2004 Champion Chase. Well Chief was one of Moscow Flyer's main rivals in a golden spell for two-mile chasers, and he himself failed to complete when sent off at evens for the 2007 renewal.
Master Minded arrived at the 2010 Festival seeking a third consecutive victory in the Champion Chase and was a 5/4-on chance. However, he didn’t travel with any of his usual zest and weakened to finish a weary fourth behind Big Zeb. Sizing Europe then had both Big Zeb and Master Minded behind him when winning the race in 2011, but failed to justify odds of 5/4-on when second the following year, while Un de Sceaux (6/4-on) was simply outclassed when filling the same spot behind a rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre 12 months ago.
Those reversals show that anything can happen in the cut and thrust of a Champion Chase battle, and one would have to question how a horse could be 3/1-on in an ordinary year. However, everything Douvan has done in his career to date suggests he is out of the ordinary and his standing as a Cheltenham banker is totally justified - as it has been when winning the Supreme and Arkle at the last two Festivals.
Unowhatimeanharry's rise through the ranks might not have been quite so serene as that of Douvan - he was beaten in a handicap from a mark of 125 in March 2015 when trained by Helen Nelmes - but there is no doubting his credentials as the leading staying hurdler in Britain now after a string of eight consecutive victories for Harry Fry. Unowhatimeanharry is no bigger than 6/4 for the Stayers' Hurdle following a comfortable victory in the Cleeve Hurdle over the C&D in January, and will attempt to continue the fine recent record of favourites in the Thursday feature.
Four of the five horses to have been sent off at evens or shorter for the race since the turn of the century have won, including last year's winner Thistlecrack. He was sent off at evens when beating Alpha des Obeaux by seven lengths and will be back bidding for more big-race glory at the Festival in 2017.
Big Buck's took the prize for the first time in 2009 - a contest in which Kasbah Bliss could only finish fourth as the 11/10-on favourite - and put together a winning sequence of 18 races (the longest ever recorded in National Hunt racing) over the course of the next few years. That streak included three further victories in this race, for which his legion of followers ensured that he was always sent off at odds-on. Big Buck's would only ever do the bare amount that was necessary and that attitude to racing undoubtedly helped him to go on at the very top for as long as he did.
Unowhatimeanharry has looked a very similar type in his career to date and the truth is we just don't know just how good he might be. He appeared to have far more in hand than the official winning margin would suggest when beating Cole Harden in the Cleeve last time and that form gives him the edge on our weight-adjusted ratings. The next five - namely Jezki, Yanworth, The New One, Vroum Vroum Mag and Nichols Canyon - all have other options at the Festival, and Unowhatimeanharry looks destined for the top of the staying division this year and beyond.
Short-priced favourites for the Gold Cup have been few and far between in recent years, and that is only fitting for the race considered by many to be the most important in National Hunt racing. The competitive nature of such a prize means that only multiple winners Best Mate and Kauto Star have been sent off at odds-on since 2000, Best Mate (11/8-on) when winning the Blue Riband for the third consecutive year in 2004, and Kauto Star when beaten in both 2008 (11/10-on) and 2010 (11/8-on).
Current favourite Thistlecrack is unlikely to go off at such prohibitive odds for the 2017 renewal, but the 7/4 currently on offer is already shorter than the SP returned on half of the last 16 Gold Cup favourites. The Colin Tizzard-trained novice could hardly have created a better impression when winning each of his first three starts over fences with ease, and stepped up on that form considerably when getting the better of far more-experienced campaigners such as Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
The air of invincibility surrounding Thistlecrack was lost at Cheltenham in January, the nine-year-old losing out to the ill-fated Many Clouds in a terrific battle for the Cotswold Chase and tasting defeat for the first time in 10 starts in the process. However, that effort still represented an improvement on the form he showed when winning at Kempton and there is no doubt he deserves his place at the head of the market.
Thistlecrack will probably need to improve again when lining up on Gold Cup day, though, and this year's renewal looks set to present a bigger field than has sometimes been the case in recent years. Such a scenario will test his jumping to the limit and his more battle-hardened stablemates Cue Card and Native River are arguably better-equipped to cope, a comment that also applies to the runner-up in each of the last two years, Djakadam.
In terms of the Cheltenham 'banker' territory, Thistlecrack has arguably come by his ticket in far more questionable circumstances than Douvan and Unowhatimeanharry, and looks the most vulnerable of the three.
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