Championship Chases: Timefigures Preview

What does it take to win a Champion Chase?

The last five winning performances have ranged from 161 (Dodging Bullets) to the impressive 192 by Sprinter Sacre in 2013, but a performance rating of 170 would have won five of the last ten renewals. Winning timefigures, available for the last couple of years, were 169 when Sprinter Sacre regained his crown in 2016 and 141 for last year’s Champion Special Tiara.

Unsurprisingly, there is a premium placed on travelling strongly and jumping well, with seven of the last ten winners recording Timeform in-play symbols of both K (travelled strongly) and J (jumped well) in the race.

Is the Champion Chase all about Altior?

Altior, the general 4/6 favourite, belatedly made his return when comfortably beating Politologue, who, having improved markedly in his second season chasing was as short as 4/1 to win the Champion Chase (now 8/1). It was a race that emphasised Altior’s strength of speed – a slowly run race (107.4% finishing speed) resulting in a lowly timefigure of just 128.

Altior is yet to record a truly outstanding timefigure, a peak of 150 in the Celebration Chase last year, however that is no slight against Altior, it’s as much about opportunity as anything, and horse racing isn’t about running fast times, but about running faster than your opponents.

The plot below shows this season’s best performance and timefigure recorded by every horse entered in the Champion Chase, and, as you can see, the majority have recorded a timefigure within 15 lb of their best performance.

Which Irish challengers have the best timefigures?

The lightly-raced Min missed the 2017 Festival and a clash with Altior in the Arkle, having previously been beaten by that rival in the 2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Min returned with a bloodless victory at Gowran, recording the third best timefigure (167) by a chaser this season, only to disappoint a month later when demoted to second after causing interference to Simply Ned at Leopardstown. However, he then returned to form with another 167 timefigure (169 performance) when storming clear of that runner at the Dublin Festival earlier this month.

Douvan is currently top rated but hasn’t been seen since last year’s Champion Chase, where he lost his aura of invincibility as he jumped sketchily and never looked on his game. Great Field, another Mullins inmate who hasn’t seen the racecourse this year, would be a fascinating contender. He’s unbeaten in four starts over fences, each performance better than the last, but it would take a fair amount of faith to back either of these talented horses.

Politologue was firmly put in his place by Altior at Newbury, albeit in a race that suited the latter, while reigning champion Special Tiara hasn’t quite been in the same form as last year, but is an uncomplicated runner with one target in mind. Unfortunately for his backers, he’ll also have a target on his back from an early stage.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Champion Chase?

With a solid pace likely to be ensured by Special Tiara, any chinks or weaknesses in Altior are likely to be exposed under these conditions. Min has already suffered his blip and recovery, recording solid performances both on the clock and off it, and he is still lightly raced over fences to think there may yet be plenty more to come (Altior had only run to 167 in his first five starts, compared to Min’s stablemate Douvan who reached 173 on his fifth start having already won the Arkle) – he’s a solid bet at a best price of 7/2.

Recommendation:

Back Min at 7/2 for the 2018 Champion Chase (NRNB)

What does it take to win a Ryanair Chase?

The last five winners have recorded performance ratings of 159 (Dynaste in 2014) to 175 (Cue Card in 2013), while the last two timefigures have been 168 by Vautour (174 performance) and 165 by Un De Sceaux 12 months ago (168 performance, third best in the race).

How good is Un de Sceaux on timefigures?

Un de Sceaux has won both starts this term with a minimum of fuss, including the Clarence House in a timefigure of 164. There isn’t anything understated about his racing style, though, as exhibited in last year’s race, where he drew clear from the fifth and kicked again at the ninth, eventually winning comfortably from Sub Lieutenant, recording the best timefigure (165) of the Festival in the process.

He’s the defending champion who jumps well, travels strongly and responds to pressure when needed, so there isn’t much to dislike about Un de Sceaux.

Is Waiting Patiently the biggest danger?

The biggest threat to Un de Sceaux is undoubtedly Waiting Patiently, who has steadily improved this season, building to a 171 performance rating and 166 timefigure in the Ascot Chase, with the promise of yet more to come. Like Un De Sceaux, he usually travels and jumps, but he’s usually found towards the rear in his races.

Between these two contenders, sitting in midfield, there are other runners to consider. Top Notch was a below-par fourth in the Ascot Chase and has only ever run to 165 once in his career, the only time he has ever run above 160, so he’ll have to do something he’s never done if he’s to win. Balko des Flos ran a career best when second to Road To Respect in a decent time (161 timefigure), but needs to build on that Christmas Chase effort here.

Is this the right race for Fox Norton?

Fox Norton is a thoroughly impressive winner of the JLT Melling Chase pic.twitter.com/oMF1douOJ0

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) April 7, 2017

Potentially one of the more interesting runners is Fox Norton who has raced almost exclusively over two miles (or thereabouts), with two exceptions, the latest the King George VI Chase where he was pulled up before his stamina became an issue. His other came in the Melling Chase, where he beat Sub Lieutenant by six lengths, running to a timefigure of 169 and performance rating of 168. He has an entry in the Champion Chase, but this race should suit.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Ryanair Chase?

There is little doubt that Waiting Patiently is a massive contender, but there are doubts whether he’ll even show up; connections are “not that bothered about Cheltenham”. There is also his run style: can he afford to give a horse like Un de Sceaux any kind of start? Fox Norton - who recorded a timefigure 4 lb superior to anything Un de Sceaux has achieved when winning the Melling over two and a half miles - should be ridden closer to the pace and is worth backing at 11/2 (NRNB).

Recommendation:

Back Fox Norton at 11/2 for the 2018 Ryanair Chase (NRNB)

What does it take to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup?

The last five winning performances of the Cheltenham Gold Cup have ranged from Lord Windermere’s 161 to Don Cossack’s 178, who also recorded a very solid timefigure of 177. In comparison, last year’s winner Sizing John ran to 168 and a 151 timefigure.

The performance symbol most synonymous with Gold Cup winners is R, denoting that the horse has responded well to pressure.

Can Sizing John win back-to-back renewals?

If Sizing John is to retain the Gold Cup then he’ll likely have to run to a similar level as on his comeback in the John Durkan in December. He ran to a timefigure of 168 there, the second best recorded this season behind Bristol De Mai’s breath-taking Betfair Chase win (174).

Sizing John ran again just 18 days later in the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown but was found to be clinically abnormal post-race; connections will be hoping a line can be put through that performance and he bounces back.

How does Might Bite compare on the clock?

Might Bite’s remarkable RSA win (160 performance, 154 timefigure) is the best in that race the last 15 years, storming clear from an early stage and 10 lengths up at the last before hanging badly right and almost coming to a standstill. He was headed by Whisper but rallied to get up on the line, winning by a nose and in the process perfectly highlighting both his prodigious talent and his quirks.

Since then he has been a lot more professional, using the biggest weapon in his armoury when winning the King George: pace. He set a strong gallop which put stress on the jumping of Bristol De Mai down the back and nullified the speed of Thistlecrack rounding the home turn, with Double Shuffle and Tea For Two only able to pick up the pieces late on. Expect Might Bite to compromise his rivals, before he possibly compromises himself over this extra quarter of a mile.

Might Bite, is the winner of the 2017 King George VI Chase at @kemptonraces 👏🙌 pic.twitter.com/lHleoLX0w4

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) December 26, 2017

What timefigure did Native River record at Newbury?

Native River goes into the Gold Cup having had just one run this season, a career-best win (170 performance, 165 timefigure) at Newbury last week. This is a markedly different approach to last year’s campaign, where he took in five races, including victories in the Hennessy and the Welsh National, en route to finishing third in this race. He’s another bold jumper who likes to go from the front, setting a solid tempo as his stamina is assured and he can find plenty for pressure.

Which horses are the leading Irish contenders?

If Native River finds, then Our Duke mines, digging deeper and deeper when needed. After a couple of disappointing efforts, he bounced back to form in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran at the weekend in a slowly-run race over an inadequate trip, albeit in testing in conditions. His Irish Grand National win is easily his best performance on the clock (164), but he can sometimes make a bad mistake which may be costly in this better company.

Road to Respect, winner of the Christmas Chase, is the final horse to focus on. That performance was his best, 162 timefigure (165 performance), but his three efforts this year have all been strong. He’ll probably have to improve again to take a Gold Cup, but with just four runs over three miles to date, he might have more to come, another doughty stayer who is likely to be staying on at the finish.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Responding well to pressure is usually the key to winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup, and there are several contenders with that attribute. The 10/1 chance Road to Respect, who only has 6 lb to find on timefigures with the very best of his rivals, looks most overpriced. With more improvement expected now stepping up further in distance, he is preferred to the likes of Might Bite, Native River and Our Duke.

Recommendation:

Back Road to Respect each-way at 10/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup (NRNB)

Click here to find out more about jumps timefigures.

Timeform jumps timefigures are available in Timeform Race Cards and Timeform Race Passes.