Champion Stakes Preview: Paper over the Cracks

The 2018 British Flat season begins its month-long wind-down at Ascot this weekend, with the Champion Stakes just one of four Group 1 races on Saturday’s valuable Champions Day card.

Horses trained in mainland Europe have fared well in the Champion Stakes in recent years, with Alain de Royer-Dupre (Pride, 2006), Jean-Claude Rouget (twice, with Literato in 2007 and Almanzor in 2016) and Corine Barande-Barbe (Cirrus des Aigles, 2011) all saddling the winner since the turn of the century.

Sadly, the current substandard levels of French racing, highlighted by the British domination at the recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe meeting, are further underlined here by a lack of Gallic runners, with only the Czech-trained (but French-campaigned) Subway Dancer amongst the five-day entries. He only started racing as a four-year-old so has made good strides to make up into a smart performer, but, having not won since, he won’t be a threat to last year’s winner Cracksman.

Cracksman storms to victory in the Champion Stakes! Watch LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/7JxeUt0HIC

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 21, 2017

The top-class colt was successful four times in 2017, most notably this race, where he stormed clear to beat Poet's Word by seven lengths. He hasn’t looked so good this year, despite winning two (admittedly sub-par) Group 1s - the Prix Ganay at Longchamp (by four lengths) in April and the Coronation Cup at Epsom (scrambled home by a head from Salouen after reportedly banging his head in the stalls) in June.

Cracksman then produced a laboured effort when two and a quarter lengths second to the much-improved Poet's Word in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, but the form has been franked by the winner subsequently beating Crystal Ocean by a neck in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes back here in July.

He may have some questions to answer, but Cracksman has undoubtedly been saved for this swansong (connections have had to wait for soft ground due to a dry summer) and he looks to have everything in his favour for a repeat win.

Crystal Ocean won the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown in April, Aston Park Stakes at Newbury in May and Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot (by two and a half lengths from Red Verdon, not needing to be at his best) in June. He took a big step forward – despite meeting with defeat – when second to Poet's Word in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in July, and then faced a tough task trying to give subsequent Arc winner Enable 8 lb in the September Stakes at Kempton last time, losing little in defeat as he was beaten three and a half lengths in second. He acts on soft ground and looks a fascinating contender here.

Cracksman’s biggest threat, however, may come from within his own yard.

Roaring Lion has been a different horse since a low-key reappearance in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket, winning the Dante Stakes at York (by four and a half lengths) in May, Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown (beat Saxon Warrior by a neck) in July and Juddmonte International Stakes back at York (by three and a quarter lengths from Poet's Word) in August. He completed his hat-trick in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown last time by a neck from Saxon Warrior, leading close home after taking second a furlong out. He’s undoubtedly better at 1¼m than 1½m (flattened out late when third to Masar in the Derby back in June), but his trainer has suggested that very soft ground may lead to a drop in trip for the QE II over 1m; a last-minute decision is on the cards.

What a race - Roaring Lion wins the QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes! @LeopardstownRC pic.twitter.com/GTxpZ7NFc3

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) September 15, 2018

As well as Athena, who finished fourth, and Rhododendron who was eighth, the Irish Champion Stakes also featured Verbal Dexterity. He won the National Stakes at the Curragh (by three and a half lengths) in 2017, before finishing three lengths behind Roaring Lion when fourth in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on his final start that season. He’s only been seen twice since, shaping as if retaining most, if not all, of his ability when one and a quarter lengths fourth in the Royal Whip Stakes at the Curragh in August. He was below form when last of nine in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, so has plenty of work to do to turn the tables with the winner on that running, but the much softer ground here will suit this big colt much better and he looks a lively outsider, having had just six career starts to date, after all.

The more obvious Irish challenge, as is usually the case, comes from the yard of Aidan O’Brien, though with all five of his entries holding alternative engagements, it’s difficult to work out who will run where.

Of the five, Capri holds the strongest claims. A dual Classic winner (Irish Derby and St Leger) last season, he has missed the bulk of this season through injury, but his fine effort to finish fifth in the Arc showed that his ability is still intact.

#Arrivée #R1Parislongchamp #QPAT Enable (@FrankieDettori / J. H. M. Gosden) remporte la 97ème édition du Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ! Elle résiste de justesse à Sea of Class. pic.twitter.com/UHLJUcTIqK

— Equidia (@equidia) October 7, 2018

The performances of Stradivarius and Crystal Ocean this term, both of whom were behind Capri in the St Leger, only enhance his credentials.

Magical, Magic Wand and Athena all hold entries in both this race and the Fillies & Mares Stakes. On ratings, it is Magical who is the pick of the trio after a career-best tenth in the Arc last time. Magic Wand has yet to break her duck at Group 1 level, but she produced a similar effort on the figures to Magical when second to Kitesurf in the Prix de l’Opera on the same card, whilst Athena seemingly had her limitations at this level exposed in the same race. Lockinge winner Rhododendron has an alternative engagement in the QEII, but her woeful second half of the year means that she looks opposable wherever she turns up.

Of the rest, the high-class Addeybb has been better than ever this year, winning the Lincoln (Handicap) from a BHA mark of 99 at Doncaster in March and the Group 2 Mile at Sandown in April.

RUKMomentOfTheDay: Looks like the Lockinge next for the fast-improving Addeybb after his win @Sandownpark

Watch all the finishes from today for free in our results and replay section ➡ https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/si4aMRenAs

— Racing UK (@racing_uk) April 27, 2018

He was below expectations when behind Rhododendron in the Lockinge when last seen, but was possibly unsuited by the return to less testing conditions on his first attempt in Group 1 company. He stays nine furlongs and appeared to last home when tried over this trip as a three-year-old, so is not one to rule out if stepped back up in distance for this race rather than the QEII.

Monarchs Glen is a keen-going sort who was better than ever after 12 weeks off (in a first-time hood) when winning the listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot by a length from Euginio, asserting quickly once leading approaching the final furlong. He hasn’t been seen since, but that form has been franked, albeit at a lower level than this, and he’s respected if putting his best foot forward once more. Fellow Juddmonte runner Mirage Dancer won a listed race in May and the Glorious Stakes (by three and a half lengths from Red Verdon) in August, both over 1½m at Goodwood, but looks up against it in this esteemed company.

Conclusion

Cracksman can enjoy one more day in the spotlight before heading to stud. Though he wasn't at his best when second to Poet's Word last time, not "quite with us mentally that day" according to his trainer, the winner is a very good horse and everything looks in place for one last hurrah. John Gosden holds the key to the race, also responsible for Roaring Lion, who would be a big threat if lining up here rather than in the QEII, while at a bigger price it wouldn't be a surprise to see former Racing Post Trophy fourth Verbal Dexterity bounce back to form now returned to testing ground. He’s worth backing each-way at 25/1.

Recommended bets:

Back Cracksman to win Saturday’s Champion Stakes at Evens

Back Verbal Dexterity each-way in Saturday’s Champion Stakes at 25/1