Champion Stakes 2016: Hobbs not out despite troubles

The Champion Stakes has thrived since relocating to Ascot as part of the formation of a British Champions Day in 2011, with the race now worth some £1.3 million in prize money and continuing to attract the quality of racehorse that such an investment demands.

Cirrus des Aigles, Frankel and Farhh each posted top-class efforts to win the first three renewals of the race to be run at Ascot, and a similar level of performance is likely to be required to land Saturday's feature, with the winners of this year's French Derby, Irish Champion Stakes, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 1000 Guineas, Oaks, King George, Tattersalls Gold Cup, Prince of Wales' Stakes and Coral Eclipse all entered. 

Almanzor is the current market leader and comes into the race as one of the major surprise packages of 2016. His rise is covered more extensively in Adam Brookes’ profile of the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained runner, but the biggest talking point of his career to date is undoubtedly the top-class performance he put up to win his most recent outing in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He completed the four-timer with a comfortable defeat of subsequent Arc winner Found that day and, while better-placed than most in a race where the hold-up horses came to the fore, that still represented the best effort seen from a three-year-old anywhere in the world this season. He is fully entitled to be as short as he is in the betting (currently 6/4).

The remarkably tough Found could be in opposition again on Saturday and would appear to hold sound claims if running to the same level as when winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly recently. She had finished second in each of her previous five starts at the highest level this season, but gained the victory her consistency deserved in the Arc, quickly powering two lengths clear as the field entered the final two furlongs and always looking in control thereafter. She seems to be peaking in the autumn just as she did 12 months ago (when her efforts included a good second in this race) and would have to enter calculations if her powerful connections decide to go the well once more, with quick turnarounds proving of little consequence to her in the past.  

Meanwhile, stablemate Minding has established herself as one of the best three-year-old fillies in Europe and has the Champion as one of three possible engagements at Ascot on Saturday. She looked capable of mixing it against the males when racking up four Group 1 victories earlier in the season and confirmed that impression when chasing home Almanzor and Found at Leopardstown last time. She didn't appear to have any excuses on that occasion, though, and her best chance of landing Group 1 number five for the year would appear to come in either the QEII or the Fillies & Mares Stakes, with no obvious reason why she should reverse form with the aforementioned duo. That comment also applies to Highland Reel, who could only manage seventh in the Irish Champions and has run most of his best races over a mile and a half, including when second to Found in the Arc.

Fascinating Rock was forced to miss the Arc having failed to impress connections with his work in the days leading up to the race and will need to return to his best form if he is to have any chance of repeating his heroics in this contest 12 months ago. He had shaped as if all the ability remained intact following three months off when second in the Royal Whip Stakes at the Curragh in August, but looks opposable here given Dermot Weld's concerns about his wellbeing of late and the fact most of his best efforts have come on ground good to soft or slower.

Indeed, there is every chance last year's third Jack Hobbs could reverse the form under different circumstances here. John Gosden's charge has endured a far from ideal preparation for this race himself, suffering a stress fracture of the pelvis on his return to action at Newmarket in April and not sighted in competitive action on a racecourse since. He satisfied connections in a racecourse gallop at Kempton recently, though, and had established himself with a series of high-class efforts as a three-year-old, including when winning the Irish Derby at the Curragh by five lengths. The way he developed throughout that campaign suggested there would be more to come from him this time round and his best form leaves him just 4 lb short of Almanzor on Timeform adjusted ratings.

My Dream Boat, Hawkbill and US Army Ranger are others to note in a 19-strong entry, but they each have something to prove after below-par efforts of late and even their best form leaves them vulnerable to a top-class performer like Almanzor. 

In summary, Almanzor appeals as by far the likeliest winner of this prestigious contest, but there still may be some mileage in an each-way punt on Jack Hobbs, who was fancied to dominate the middle-distance division among older horses at the turn of the year and could yet confirm that promise for a trainer well capable of readying his runners after a spell on the sidelines.

Recommended Bet:

Back Jack Hobbs each-way at 16/1 in the Champion Stakes at Ascot