Championship Hurdle Races: Timefigures Preview

What does it normally take to win a Champion Hurdle?

The last five winners have varied on form between 163 (Annie Power) and 170 (Buveur d’Air) while the winning timefigures for those two horses were 162 and 167 respectively. Few horses among the current entries can boast that level of achievement and even fewer the potential. 

Given he is unbeaten over hurdles or fences since finishing third behind Altior and Min in a top-class renewal of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2016, it's no surprise that the reigning champion hurdler Buveur d’Air is long odds on for the race.

His diet since then has mainly been one of beating up inferior rivals in small-field races run at a slow gallop, but his season-leading 167 timefigure in last year's renewal shows what he is capable of when circumstance demands.

Most of the horses that finished behind Buveur d’Air then have since turned their hand to chasing, and the best of those that haven’t, such as My Tent Or Yours or The New One, have come up short against him more than once. So if there is a horse that will beat him in the Champion this year - and that seems unlikely – then it will probably be one that didn’t contest the race last year or has already proved he can run as fast. 

Is Faugheen capable of winning another Champion Hurdle?

The obvious horse that fits that bill, of course, is the 2015 Champion Hurdler winner Faugheen.

Twice a Festival winner, his front-running Champion win was rather gifted him (and would have returned a modest timefigure had Timeform been returning timefigures then) but his comeback run in the Morgiana Hurdle in December when running to a timefigure of 169 showed all the ability that made him such a force from 2013 to 2016 was still there.

Two races on from the Morgiana, however, and Faugheen’s profile is less appealing. He was pulled up over Christmas, and though there was some semblance of a return to form in the Irish Champion Hurdle on Dublin Festival weekend (best placed in a race that wasn’t strongly run and returned a winning timefigure of just 147), his defeat by Supasundae - a horse that had neither won at 2m since a maiden hurdle win in 2015 nor looked top class over further - suggests the aura of invincibility Faugheen once had no longer exists.

Supasundae wins the Irish Champion Hurdle! @LeopardstownRC #DublinRacingFestival pic.twitter.com/QG7ntwiGVr

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 3, 2018

Which horses are the biggest threats to Buveur d'Air?

Though he could yet be supplemented, Supasundae is not even entered in the Champion Hurdle (he is entered instead in the Stayers' Hurdle), so with Apple’s Jade (154 timefigure) set to head for the Mares’ Hurdles and question marks over the current well-being of the 2017 Supreme runner-up Melon (149) and Yorkhill (148 hurdles, 155 chases) and ability of Ch’Tibello (149), John Constable (148) and Defi Du Seuil (144), serious competition for Buveur d’Air looks extremely thin on the ground.

Indeed, it’s doubtful if any of that sextet would be able to finish in front of either My Tent Or Yours or The New One in a well-run Champion, so that should really dictate where we look for a bet. And there doesn’t look a better bet around than My Tent Or Yours in the "without Buveur d’Air market".

My Tent Or Yours might be 11 now but he has finished runner-up in three Champion Hurdles and was too good for a number of those previously mentioned (including Melon, The New One, Ch’Tibello and John Constable) in a steadily-run International Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.  Timefigures of 160 and 162 in the last two renewals of this race leave no question as to his ability and he would also have gone very close to winning the Punchestown Champion Hurdle last April had he not allowed surprise winner Wicklow Brave (in first-time blinkers, winning timefigure 147) to establish a long lead during the slowest part of the race.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Champion Hurdle?

In the expectation that Buveur d’Air won’t be hard pressed to maintain his crown, My Tent Or Yours looks vastly overpriced at the widely available 4-1 or better in the market without him.      

Recommendation:

Back My Tent Or Yours at 4/1 for the Champion Hurdle in the "without Buveur D'Air" market

What does it normally take to win a Stayers' Hurdle?

In contrast to the Champion Hurdle, in terms of form ratings the last five winners of the Stayers' Hurdle have varied widely between 152 (Cole Harden) and 168 (Thistlecrack). Thistlecrack’s winning timefigure in 2016 was also 168, while the timefigure for the 2017 winner Nichols Canyon was 147.

For this year's renewal, the undoubted horse to focus on is the Long Walk Hurdle winner Sam Spinner. The Long Walk has long since been a good trial, with the winner going on to land the Stayers' four times in the last ten years, but this season the Long Walk takes on extra significance as the first four home in that race all figure in the top ten hurdle performances this season ranked on time. Sam Spinner is second on 166 in that list behind Faugheen; Long Walk runner-up L’Ami Serge is close behind on 163, while Unowwhatimeanharry (who represents the 2017 Stayers' Hurdle form) and The Worlds End, third and fourth respectively at Ascot, are both on 155.

Is Sam Spinner the real deal according to timefigures?

Sam Spinner preceded his Long Walk win by running his rivals into the ground while recording a timefigure of 155 over two and three quarter miles on heavy ground at Haydock. That front-running win was gained in similar fashion to the Long Walk, though Sam Spinner was even more impressive over the longer trip at Ascot where the searching gallop he maintained from a long way out had all bar the 2016 French Champion Hurdle winner L’Ami Serge beaten going to the last.

There have been questions raised about Sam Spinner’s ability to handle quicker ground, but the speed of the surface on Stayers' Hurdle day last March was pretty much the same as Sam Spinner encountered at Ascot, so that seems unlikely to be an issue.

Wholestone has already beaten Sam Spinner - will he do so again?

Sam Spinner is one of two horses entered in the Stayers' that figure twice in the list of top ten hurdle timefigure performances this season – the other is Wholestone. The pair have already met once this season, at Chepstow in October over two and a half miles when Wholestone emerged as the better horse at the weights in a race that only really developed properly in the straight.

Wholestone too has improved abundantly since, if not as much as Sam Spinner, recording timefigures of 154 when second to Colin’s Sister over 3m at Wetherby in November and 155 when beating Agrapart in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. That latter win also came at two and a half miles and something close to that trip might well suit Wholestone best – he was outstayed by Agrapart over 3m last time in the mud. Agrapart has bottomless stamina and a best timefigure of 153, but much like his former stable-companion Reve De Sivola he looks dependent on testing ground and it’s difficult to see either him or Wholestone being up to the task.

Lizzie Kelly and Agrapart get the better of Wholestone in a terrific finish to the https://t.co/LLNdfBIuni Cleeve Hurdle

Results ▶️ https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/UwXWTvtTCY

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) January 27, 2018

After his Long Walk win, Sam Spinner headed the Stayers’ Hurdle market but he has since been ousted by Supasundae who beat Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown in February. On paper there looks little wrong with that form, but running down the 2015 Champion Hurdle winner at two miles in a race that wasn’t run at an out-and-out gallop possibly says more about Faugheen right now than it does Supasundae, and a timefigure of 147 for that win reflects the muddling nature of the form. That’s not to say Supasundae isn’t capable of running faster, but timefigures of 149 (when winning the Coral Cup in 2017) and 148 (when third in the Hatton Grace behind Apple’s Jade) suggest that, on the clock at least, he still has a bit to prove.

Which other horses are the biggest threats to Sam Spinner?

Yanworth is one of a number of horses that might yet roll up here having tried their hand unsuccessfully at novice chasing this year. Favourite for the Champion Hurdle in 2017, the step up to three miles looked to suit him at Aintree and he has large enough timefigures (154 and 157, achieved in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton respectively) to suggest he would command plenty of respect if he turns up.

Another horse that ran in the Champion Hurdle last year is The New One. His best timefigures are 160 and 156, and he has a win in the Baring Bingham to his name, but his last few attempts beyond the minimum trip haven’t been entirely convincing. Nonetheless, he has the ability to be thereabouts if he stays the trip.

Other horses with the potential to figure are stable-companions Penhill, whose closing sectionals when winning the 2017 Albert Bartlett (in which Wholestone was third) elevated his performance way beyond his 139 timefigure, and Bacardys, who won the Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown last spring with a timefigure of 136 and will be very well suited by the step up to three miles. Neither has had the smoothest of preparations, however.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Stayers' Hurdle?

Sam Spinner's timefigures back up the visually striking nature of his recent victories - at the widely available 5-1, Sam Spinner is taken to extend the good record of Long Walk winners at the Cheltenham Festival.

Recommendation:

Back Sam Spinner at 5/1 for the Stayer's Hurdle

Click here to find out more about jumps timefigures.

Timeform jumps timefigures are available in Timeform Race Cards and Timeform Race Passes.