Challenge Cup Preview: Swagger is worth the risk

The Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday is set to be another fiercely-competitive renewal, not surprising given the prize money on offer, with a £180,000 pot guaranteed and over £110,000 to the winner. Recent years have dictated that a pattern-class performance is needed to win, with subsequent Hungerford Stakes runner-up Librisa Breeze running to a Timeform rating of 120 twelve months ago.

There are plenty of horses who fit that profile in line to take their chance this year, perhaps none more so than the most-progressive Mojito, who completed a hat-trick at York last month and currently heads the ante-post market. The William Haggas-trained three-year-old has taken off this summer, impressing by how he saw out the one-mile trip despite taking a keen hold early on at York, and he looks ready for a higher grade now. He’s already at a standard to be competitive in pattern races – he still holds an entry for the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket next week – and Mojito will have leading claims if taking his chance here getting weight from a host of more-exposed rivals.

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, though, are topped by Makzeem – closely related to the high-class Al Kazeem – who is now on the progressive path, winning a similarly-competitive handicap over seven furlongs at Newmarket last week by over three lengths. He was most authoritative that day, and can be expected to go very well here under a 7-lb penalty if taking his chance, though the seven-day turnaround looks quick enough.

One who has been rejuvenated this season is Burnt Sugar, who was a Group 3 winner at two, but who had lost his way before joining Roger Fell earlier this year. He has managed to win twice for Fell, and his most recent success at the Curragh last month was very impressive on the eye, sweeping round on the bend in mid-field to win going away by two lengths, showing a striking turn of foot. He was well fancied for the abandoned Ayr Gold Cup as a result (where he would have carried a 5-lb penalty) and he isn’t handicapped out of proceedings up 8 lb in the weights.

Remarkable will carry top weight if taking his chance and he arrives fresh from a career-best performance when winning a similar event over this C&D last month by half a length from Mjjack. He had shaped well in big-field course handicaps earlier this season but finally bagged one, putting up a listed-class effort to defy an official mark of 107. It’s fair to say that John Gosden’s four-year-old isn’t the most straightforward, but he has bags of ability, and though he will need to get the breaks given his hold-up style of racing, you couldn’t rule him out now 4 lb higher in the weights. Raising Sand and Firmanent, who finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Remarkable, both have entries too. The latter will continue to give a good account, though he does seem to be in the grip of the handicapper, while Raising Sand shaped as though still ahead of his mark last time. He will need at least five to come out if he’s to get a run, but will be a danger to all lining up off the same mark.

David O’Meara hasn’t enjoyed the best of seasons so far, but Lord Glitters – a €270,000 purchase in July – looks a very interesting recruit. He has made up into a useful performer in France this year for Christophe Lotoux, winning minor events at Chantilly in April and Saint-Cloud in May. The handicapper has taken no chances with a mark of 102, but Lord Glitters remains with potential as a lightly-raced four-year-old, and O’Meara has shown on numerous occasions that he is adept with such types.

Mitchum Swagger and Flaming Spear disappointed in pattern company last time, finishing fifth and eighth respectively in the Superior Mile at Haydock last month. Flaming Spear shaped as though amiss, and is best judged on his previous form as a result. Just like Remarkable, Mitchum Swagger isn’t the easiest to predict, but he has a lot of ability on his day and has the capacity to win a race of this nature. He hasn’t really had his ideal conditions so far this season, mainly contesting minor/pattern races with single-figure fields, however this confirmed hold-up performer should get a strong pace to chase here, and it’s worth noting that he finished an unlucky third in last year’s Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot off a 2 lb higher mark. This is his first start in a handicap since, but he should be well suited by the conditions of the race, and is fancied to go well at an each-way price of 20/1.

Recommendation:

Back Mitchum Swagger in the Challenge Cup each-way at 20/1