Bunbury Cup Preview: Spear to shake up Newmarket rivals

The Bunbury Cup - one of four cup races on a Saturday which may please the armchair racing fan, but is surely a good example of why more quality race meetings should take place midweek – is run at Newmarket and has attracted a wide range of bookmaker sponsors over the years. It’s also been a good race in general for the layers, with just two favourites winning since 2003, and one of those, last year’s victor Golden Steps, was sent off the 7/1 joint-favourite. Unfortunately, Marco Botti’s charge hasn’t been seen since, but the runner-up – and 2014 winner – Heaven’s Guest looks set to try and make it two wins in four years (he was also third in 2015). However, the Richard Fahey-trained seven-year-old’s current odds of 20/1 correctly reflect his recent poor form rather than his former glories, and of more interest at that price is the Simon Crisford-trained Mutawathea. Although prominent racers prevailed around the turn of the decade – Plum Pudding (2009), St Moritz (2010) and Brae Hill (2011) all made most – recent renewals have gone to horses who were ridden off the pace, and, perhaps crucially, had run well at the track before. Mutawathea is adaptable in regards to tactics, having been ridden prominently when third in this race 12 months ago, however he bounced back to form when ridden more patiently by Lewis Edmunds at York last time. Edmunds is set to keep the ride, and it’s interesting to note that the Mutawathea was also second in the Victoria Cup under then 5-lb claimer Edward Greatrex. Although perhaps not totally straightforward, he’s a horse who is perhaps best left to his own devices.

The ante-post market is currently headed by Tashweeq and Flaming Spear. Tashweeq, a former Group 1 contender in 2015, was off with injury for all of 2016 but he left his belated reappearance at Sandown behind in no uncertain terms when producing a clear career best when three quarters of a length third to Zhui Feng in the Royal Hunt Cup last month. He’s respected, but isn’t guaranteed to back it up. Flaming Spear, who was deemed good enough to run in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains at three, won at Newcastle in December and was better than ever when following up back there (by a neck from Fort Bastion) when last seen in January, overcoming a troubled passage to lead in the dying strides. A 4 lb rise leaves him potentially well treated for his hat-trick bid on this reappearance, especially given his owner Tony Bloom’s previous exploits with Librisa Breeze who successfully transferred his strong all-weather form into heritage handicap wins at Ascot in 2016. Though Flaming Spear’s record in big-field handicaps on turf leaves a little to be desired, the feeling is that he could be a different proposition now.

Abe Lincoln has a choice of entries this weekend, and he makes some appeal in this race at 16/1. Though it’s hard to be confident that he won’t head up to York for a 1m handicap on the same day, the fact that this race is worth £60,000 more to the winner, as well as a favourable weather forecast, should help ensure his participation on the July Course. He’s a lightly-raced colt who finished a short-head second to Defrocked in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last season and was well backed before his reappearance in the Royal Hunt Cup at this year’s meeting. However, he was possibly unsuited by the quick conditions that day, and was also ridden more prominently by Gerald Mosse than had previously been the case, so, with rain having already arrived at the track this week, he looks capable of better, although the drop to 7f might not be ideal.

Steady Pace produced a career-best effort when half a length second to Out Do in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last time, making headway over 1f out and sticking to the task. He stays this far, though is probably most effective at 6f, and a more interesting Godolphin contender – albeit one who might not make the cut – is the John Gosden-trained Parfait. He needs a few to come out, but was most impressive when winning a C&D handicap in first-time cheekpieces by seven lengths in June and ran well, upped in grade, when two and a half lengths fourth to Le Brevido in the Jersey at Royal Ascot last time. The issue of making the cut has been a sensitive one for trainers in recent seasons, with the quality of horse needed to guarantee a run in this race increasing year on year. However, while the graph below illustrates the condensing of the handicap, it also shows that the rise in quality hasn’t been emphatically mirrored in the pre-race BHA rating of the winner.

Gary Moore is more commonly associated with big-field handicaps over jumps, however he has placed Gossiping, a former Charlie Appleby inmate, to great effect in 2017. The five-year-old has won five of his last seven starts, including the last twice at Goodwood - winning with plenty in hand on both occasions – and is entitled to plenty of respect. Top weight Tabarrak, who was fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup last time, is another to consider, especially as his tendency to over-race could be negated by this drop in trip, while the fellow Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned Fawaareq completed a hat-trick last summer (two wins here), and shaped encouragingly after 10 months off when two and a half lengths third to Afjaan at Haydock in April. The runner-up Oh This Is Us has franked that form since, and Fawaareq, much like Parfait, is another interesting runner if scraping in at the foot of the handicap.

Recommended bet

Flaming Spear to win the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on Saturday at 9/1