Breeders' Cup Best Bets: Nezwaah overpriced for the Europeans

The Classic, which brings to a close the 34^th Breeders’ Cup Meeting, really does have the potential to live up to its name this year, bringing together as it does one of the best US middle-distance dirt crops in recent memory. With Arrogate, Gun Runner and Collected having already attained 130+ ratings on the Timeform scale, and the young pretender West Coast knocking on the door with his 129p, it can easily be seen what a classy renewal this is.

Aidan O’Brien’s pursuit of this race shows no sign of relenting, and he relies on Churchill and War Decree to try and give him his first Classic win. Of the two, War Decree looks the most likely to take to the dirt, although the level of form he has shown does need improving upon. Churchill, in contrast, has better form, but a pedigree that doesn’t scream out dirt, and with a similar profile to Gleneagles a couple of years ago, Churchill really cannot be fancied on this surface and in this company.

The tactical nuances of this race are sure to make it fascinating viewing, and well worth staying up for, but as a betting contest it has an extremely trappy look to it. The best bets appear to be earlier on the card, and the most solid of the lot looks to be Drefong in the Sprint. Bob Baffert recorded back-to-back wins in this race with Midnight Lute in 2007, and he is bidding to repeat the feat this year with Drefong, who won this race at Santa Anita last year. He has only raced twice since, unseating his rider on his return in July but bouncing back to winning ways in the Forego Stakes at Saratoga last time, proving better than ever, having secured an easy lead. While he will be a relatively short price, this looks a paceless contest, and with Drefong having a plum draw in stall two, it is difficult to see him being headed in the early stages, and a repeat of his devastating Forego win looks on the cards.

Of the dangers, Takaful, who is unexposed as a sprinter, may be the one for the forecast. He relished the drop back to six furlongs when winning the Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont last time, and he likely has more to offer for top connections. Roy H is another sprinter on the up, having posted a career-best effort when winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship last time. Possibly a little unlucky prior to that, when hampered by the loose Drefong, Roy H should again give a good account, but his best shouldn’t be enough to beat Bob Baffert’s high-class contender.

In the Filly And Mare Turf, Lady Eli looks a worthy favourite, having proved better than ever this year. Chad Brown’s admirable mare has produced career-best efforts on her last two starts, and the fact this year’s renewal is run over a furlong shorter than last year (when she was just touched off by Queen’s Trust) very much plays to her strengths.

With this race having a fairly open look to it, however, it could pay to chance one at a bigger price, and Roger Varian’s Nezwaah looks to have been overlooked in the market. Her Pretty Polly win in the summer was only slightly below the level Lady Eli has achieved to date and a repeat of that would put her right in the mix. The key to Nezwaah appears to be fast ground (has underperformed several times on softer than good) and she will have conditions to suit at Del Mar. A wide draw isn’t ideal, but at double-figure odds, she is worth chancing each-way.

Another race that has a short-priced favourite is the Juvenile, where it is difficult to see Bolt d’Oro being beaten. He looked an absolute superstar when slamming Solomini by nearly eight lengths in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita last time, and the pair meet again here. While we would put no-one off backing Bolt d’Oro to confirm that form, his price has now got very short considering his wide draw. Solomini, in contrast, has a good draw in stall two and should get a much better trip. In all likelihood, the FrontRunner form will be confirmed, but beyond Bolt d’Oro, the US juveniles are a weak bunch, and Solomini is strongly fancied to at least finish in the places, and has a minor chance of causing an upset.

A small mention has to be reserved for US Navy Flag, who takes an unusual route from the Dewhurst to the Juvenile. While he is by War Front, the bottom half of his pedigree is very much turf-oriented, and he could quickly find himself swallowed with rivals from his outside if not breaking sharply from the inside stall. He did, however, break well last time, and if doing so again, his prominent style may ensure he hangs around for a little while before fading out of contention against some hard-knocking dirt two-year-olds.

Recommendations:

Win and place Nezwaah in the Filly And Mare Turf

Win Drefong in the Sprint

Win and place Solomini in the Juvenile