Breeders' Cup 2019: Friday preview

The European runners are outnumbered by their domestic opposition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (20:52 GMT) on Friday night, but Arizona is clearly the one to beat on form.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Arizona produced an effort good enough to win every renewal of this race since its inception in 2007 when finding only Pinatubo too strong in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last time.

Perfect Pinatubo extends his unbeaten sequence to six with a determined display in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes for William Buick and Charlie Appleby 👏 pic.twitter.com/h0xi1uOBla

— Newmarket Racecourse (@NewmarketRace) October 12, 2019

O’Brien knows what sort of horse is required to win this race, too, having done so on four occasions in its 12-year history, and Arizona has already shown he can handle an occasion such as this, having announced himself on the big stage when overcoming his inexperience to win the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.

The son of No Nay Never took his form to another level when second on the Rowley Mile, a performance that leaves him 11 lb clear of the field on weight-adjusted ratings here, and he looks sure to take plenty of beating with a bit of luck from his wide draw (12 of 14), especially as the return to a sounder surface is expected to see him in an even better light.

He is joined in the line-up by stablemate Fort Myers, who looks up against it on the form of his recent listed win at Dundalk, while the unexposed duo of Decorated Invader and Structor appeal as the best of the home team.

The former was a Grade 1 winner at Woodbine recently, while Structor showed a terrific attitude to land a Grade 3 at Belmont (by a head from Andesite) last time, the same race that Oscar Performance won before following up in this race in 2016.

Albigna and Daahyeh are currently challenging for favouritism in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (22:12 GMT) as they bid to provide their trainers – Jessica Harrington and Roger Varian, respectively – with a first Breeders’ Cup success.

A ready winner of the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, Daahyeh had Albigna four places behind her when second in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh in September, and she didn’t need to improve much (if at all) to get back to winning ways in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket last time, always doing enough to get the verdict by half a length.

The extra furlong here is a slight question mark now stepping back up to the highest level, especially with so much speed in her pedigree (by Bated Breath and out of a five-furlong winner), but the tight nature of this track provides her with her best chance of staying a mile, while her tactical speed could prove crucial in getting a good position in the early stages.

Albigna was found to be in season after her disappointing effort in the Moyglare, and she got back on the up when winning the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp last time, looking well suited by the step up to this trip as she forged clear in the closing stages to win by two and a half lengths.

Albigna takes the win for @Jessica_Racing in the Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium Des Pouliches as l'Arc day gets off to an international start!

Watch LIVE now on @ITV pic.twitter.com/NNl3HYCiqj

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 6, 2019

That was one of the most impressive performances produced by any two-year-old filly in Europe this year, and quotes of around 7/2 make plenty of appeal here, especially as the home team doesn’t look quite so strong as in recent years, a spell that has seen them win every renewal since 2014, with the last three being won by a representative of Chad Brown.

Brown relies on recent Grade 2 winner Selflessly this time, but the horse to take out of that race – and possibly the pick of the US contingent here – looks to be the runner-up Crystalle, who was beaten just three quarters of a length despite conceding 4 lb to the winner.

She is taken to reverse the placings here and can emerge as the chief threat to Albigna, leaving Daahyeh and Sweet Melania, who looked a bright prospect when winning a Grade 2 at Keeneland earlier in the month, to complete the shortlist.

The Breeders’ Cup action on Friday starts with the Juvenile Turf Sprint (20:12 GMT). European raiders made up half of the 12-strong field last year – when it was first included as part of the Breeders’ Cup programme – and had the favourite in Soldier’s Call, but it was ultimately the home team who came out on top with a 1-2 led by the Todd Pletcher-trained Bulletin.

This year’s renewal, which has been promoted to Grade 2 status, features another even split between European and North American runners, and the US are responsible for the market leaders in the shape of Wesley Ward’s Kimari and Four Wheel Drive.

Four Wheel Drive is unbeaten in two starts, including a six-furlong Grade 3 at Belmont last time, while Kimari is more familiar to punters on these shores, having been beaten just a head by Raffle Prize in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. She has created a deep impression in winning both her subsequent starts in the US, and that form sets the standard here in receipt of 3 lb from the colts.

The pick of the European team looks to be A’Ali, who has established himself as a smart and speedy two-year-old in five starts for Simon Crisford this term, with his wins including the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster.

That form is right up there with what Kimari and Four Wheel Drive have achieved – the three of them are clear of the remainder on weight-adjusted ratings – but the experience of running round a bend will be new to him, and his wide draw could see him on the backfoot in the early stages if failing to make a fast exit from the stalls.

The suggestion is to focus on Kimari and Four Wheel Drive, with preference for the rapid Kimari following an eye-catching last-to-first success over an extended five furlongs at Keeneland.

From last to first, Kimari wins the $200K Indian Summer Stakes, and is IN the @Breederscup Juvenile Turf Sprint! #WinAndYoureIN pic.twitter.com/p87sHs9LfR

— TVG (@TVG) October 6, 2019

The Juvenile Fillies (21:32 GMT) on the dirt looks wide open, with very little splitting the first four in the market, but the cream is fancied to rise to the top in the Juvenile (23:03 GMT) that concludes the Breeders’ Cup action on Friday. The form book suggests that Dennis’ Moment and Eight Rings are head and shoulders above their rivals in the absence of Maxfield.

Dennis’ Moment was an even shorter price than 6/4 earlier in the week, but he has drifted slightly since the draw was announced on Monday and it was revealed he would break from the inside stall. Dennis’ Moment will need to display plenty of tactical speed from there to ensure he can take up a prominent position in the early stages, which can so often be a big advantage in races on dirt, and there is no doubt this represents a stiff test for one so inexperienced, especially with a rival of Eight Rings’ calibre in opposition.

Eight Rings looked a very smart juvenile in the making when winning a Grade 1 over C&D last time, forging clear late on to win by six lengths, and the potential make-up of this race, not to mention his scope for further improvement, identifies him as the most likely winner. There isn't much juice in his price, though, representing Bob Baffert who has already won this race four times.

Eight Rings did not disappoint in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes!

Another victory on the card for Hall of Famers Jockey @ljlmvel & Trainer Bob Baffert!

We'll see you in the @TVG @BreedersCup Juvenile this November! #WinAndYoureIn pic.twitter.com/GwDYohqdQW

— TVG (@TVG) September 27, 2019

Recommendations:

Back Kimari at 3/1 in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (20:12 GMT)

Back Arizona at 9/4 in the Juvenile Turf (20:52 GMT)

Back Albigna at 7/2 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (22:12 GMT)