Breeders' Cup 2019: expert insight and betting advice for Santa Anita

Best bet of the meeting?

MM: Shancelot for me. His Amsterdam Stakes demolition job in July is still fresh in the memory and I think he’s had excuses for both his narrow defeats since then. The booking of Jose Ortiz on this keen-going sort is a big plus and Jorge Navarro is on record as saying this is the most talented horse he’s ever trained – and he’s had a few good ones!

SOS: Dennis’ Moment in the Juvenile is one I’m becoming more and more of a fan of every day. His maiden win by 20 odd lengths represents the best performance of any two-year-old I’ve seen this year and he had plenty left in the tank when winning his trial at Churchill Downs. I think he’ll take this and be a serious player in the Triple Crown series next year if staying healthy.

Best lay of the meeting?

MM: I’ll be laying Covfefe in the Filly & Mare Sprint. She’s very speedy and extremely talented, but this will be like no other test she’s faced in her short career to date, and there are grounds for thinking she’s too short at around 2/1. She’ll get plenty of pace pressure and two or three of the fillies who’ll be running her down late are at least as good in ratings terms.

SOS: Circus Maximus in the Mile. He’s just too slow and, given some useful opposition, I really think he’ll be up against it. The sharp mile here represents a test unlike any other he’s faced and I can see him getting under pressure a long way out. I’ll be looking to place lay him.

How do the raiding European party shape up this year?

MM: As always, the Europeans have a strong hand in the turf races, with Arizona (Juvenile Turf), Circus Maximus (Mile) and Anthony Van Dyck and Old Persian (Turf). If I had to pick the strongest of those, I’d probably just side with Circus Maximus in the Mile.

SOS: I actually don’t think they shape as well as in recent years. We were spoiled last year with Enable going over to headline the show and Mendelssohn and Roaring Lion taking on the Classic. While getting a Derby winner over in Anthony Van Dyck is good he’s not exactly set the world alight since and is on something of a recovery mission here. Circus Maximus looks like heading the Mile field but Aidan has an awful record in the race given what he’s ran in it in the past. They should as always be competitive in the juvenile turf races.

Give us an idea of what the Santa Anita track is like, both dirt and turf and how you like to bet there

MM: The dirt track at Santa Anita has been in the news for all the wrong reasons this year, so safety has become paramount. With that in mind, the track is deeper and somewhat slower than people may remember from previous Breeders’ Cups, though as with all dirt tracks, early speed can be a big tactical advantage. The turf track is tight and the ground usually firm, though that being said, it’s generally fair to most running styles.

SOS: While in past years I’d have always considered the Santa Anita dirt track to be a conveyer belt of speed, as Mark says, recent developments have resulted in them making the track deeper and slower in the interest of safety. The result is that the trips take a little more getting and it may pay to side with proven grinders than flashy speed horses. Course-and-distance form (especially from February onwards this year) should be a big advantage. On the turf, tactical speed is a must in every race, it promises to pose a test that most European horses will not have experienced in their careers. It can prove a real leveller in terms of US horses overturning European-trained horses with sexier form lines.

The Classic looks wide open with no real standout star, is that fair?

MM: Absolutely, particularly with likely favourite McKinzie having doubts over both his attitude and his ability to run to his best over the trip. In an open year, I’ll be siding with the mare Elate, who’s unbeaten over ten furlongs (3 from 3) and gets a handy 3 lb from the other older horses.

SOS: Very, the hope that McKinzie as a four-year-old would develop into a clear division leader has not panned out. He’s without doubt the most talented horse in the field but he is now 0-3 this year at the track, 0-2 at the trip and still has an awful habit of flashing the tail as if he’s not putting it all in. Code of Honor and Vino Rosso have nothing between them on their trial run at Belmont but again you’d question how good they actually are. Bill Mott’s two in Elate, who takes on the boys for the first time and should relish the trip, and Yoshida, who has run some really nice trials for this (and picks up Mike Smith), would be the two most interesting for me.