Breeders' Cup 2016: O'Brien has Found key to Turf success

Even by his own exceptionally high standards, Aidan O’Brien has enjoyed a season to remember in 2016 and Minding’s victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot took him to within four of Bobby Frankel’s record for number of Group/Grade 1 victories in a calendar year.

The master of Ballydoyle narrowly missed out on his 22^nd top level success in the final Group 1 of the year in UK and Ireland – Yucatan finished a length and a quarter second in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster – but there remains plenty of valuable prizes to be plundered around the globe and it would take a brave soul to suggest O’Brien doesn’t have the necessary ammunition to break the record set by the legendary US handler in 2003.

The Breeders’ Cup is a meeting O’Brien has attacked with real vigour in recent years – he saddled 11 runners at the two-day extravaganza in 2011 – and he seems to be assembling a typically strong squad for the 2016 edition of the ‘World Championships’ of horse racing, which is set to take place at Santa Anita on Friday 4^th and Saturday 5^th November.

The action in California looks set to be as fiercely competitive as ever, with a home team headed by the top-class quartet of California Chrome (136), Frosted (134), Arrogate (132p) and Songbird (131).

After aborting any plans for another audacious assault on the Classic, O'Brien's string looks unlikely to come into contact with that formidable group on the track, but there is sure to be plenty of stiff competition elsewhere on the card. The blue-blooded thoroughbreds making the trip over from Ireland will have to be at their very best if they are to bring up win number 11 at the meeting for their handler.

That is easier said than done given that the Breeders’ Cup comes at the end of an arduous season and it is worth investigating the circumstances of O’Brien’s previous successes and failures at the meeting, before attempting to identify his best chance of a winner in 2016.

Johannesburg got the Breeders’ Cup ball rolling for O’Brien when winning the Juvenile in 2001, while Derby hero High Chaparral ensured his trainer came away from the next two renewals – at Arlington Park and Santa Anita respectively – with the lion’s share of $2 million in prize money, winning the Turf in both 2002 and 2003 (dead-heated with Johar).

Further success at the meeting eluded O’Brien for some six years, though, and even Man of Iron’s 2009 success came in the Marathon, a mile and three quarters race that was won by Jo Hughes’ useful handicapper London Bridge in 2013 and was quickly discontinued from the Breeders’ Cup programme the following year.

Coolmore's decision to send 11 runners over for the 2011 renewal at Churchill Downs demonstrated a signal of intent and their endeavour was rewarded with a brace over the two days. Wrote ran out a two and a quarter lengths winner of the Juvenile Turf, but it was St Nicholas Abbey’s dominant effort in the Turf that received the most plaudits and initiated an upturn in fortunes for O’Brien in the race.

Top-class performers like Dylan Thomas (2007) and Soldier of Fortune (2008) had failed to reproduce their best form at the Breeders’ Cup after tough domestic campaigns, but following a break of three years without a runner in the race between 2008 and 2011, the above graph suggests O’Brien has made a more concentrated effort to get his horses to arrive at the starting gates for the $3 million Turf in absolute peak physical condition.

Indeed, St Nicholas Abbey, Magician (2013) and Found (2015) were all able to at least match their previous season’s best when scoring in the US, and last year’s winner did so on what was her eighth start of the season and sixth at the highest level.

That arguably says more about Found’s remarkable constitution than anything else, but O’Brien isn’t the most successful trainer in the Turf without knowing a thing or two about priming his runners for their trips Stateside and his two most likely runners this time round – the aforementioned Found and Highland Reel – will have to be respected if making the 10,000-mile round trip to California.

Found will be having her 10^th start of the season if doing so and could be joined on her jaunt by Alice Springs, who has endured a busy campaign herself up to this point. She began her classic year all the way back in April and has registered Group 1 victories in the Falmouth Stakes, Matron Stakes and Sun Chariot Stakes from seven subsequent outings.

She is currently among the favourites for the Mile, but O'Brien's record in the race hardly inspires confidence with her prospects in mind. Rock of Gibraltar was considered an unlucky loser when a length second in 2002 (forced to deliver his challenge from further back than ideal in a slowly-run race), but the trainer has now saddled 13 runners without success and the last eight have all failed to reproduce their best form from that season.

The likes of Aussie Rules and Excellent Art arrived in the US on the back of taxing three-year-old campaigns and appeared to be feeling the effects of those exertions when performing below expectations in the Mile.

There has to be similar doubts about Alice Springs well-being at this very late stage of the season and, while she has appeared to thrive on her racing to date, she is likely to require a career-best if she is to see off the attentions of Tepin and Limato at Santa Anita and O’Brien’s best chance of a winner would appear to lie elsewhere.

Seventh Heaven holds obvious claims in the Filly & Mare Turf, however, it is another member of the fairer sex – and a quite remarkable one at that – who will likely have the greatest following of any European runner in California. Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Found has been a terrific servant to connections and, while O'Brien threw a potential curveball when suggesting the Classic was a viable alternative, her best chance of success is rightly in the contest she won so heroically 12 months ago. She has the opportunuty to provide her trainer with a sixth victory in the Turf.