Breeders’ Cup 2016: Saturday Preview

“I’m going to say this now – this is the best horse I’ve ever ridden.”

Those were the words of Victor Espinoza after he’d steered California Chrome to victory in the Pacific Classic in August.

Asked specifically if that meant California Chrome was better than last year’s Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, the rider of both confirmed his opinion.

“Yes. The way he’s running now, yes.”

A bold statement indeed, and one that caused a bit of controversy at the time, but if California Chrome were to win what looks one of the strongest Breeders’ Cup Classics for many years, then it is highly probable that Timeform ratings will vindicate Espinoza’s opinion. Currently rated just 1 lb below American Pharoah, there is the distinct possibility that ‘Chrome’ will break the 140 barrier if he triumphs in the shadow of the San Gabriel mountains in the early hours of Sunday morning UK time.

California Chrome followed his Pacific Classic demolition of Beholder and Dortmund at Del Mar with an even more visually-emphatic victory in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita, once again beating Dortmund, who must surely be glad to see the back of his old rival having been re-routed to Friday’s Dirt Mile. Of course, we shouldn’t forget that California Chrome started his year early, winning the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes, once again at Santa Anita, before shipping to Dubai – a trip that culminated in a Dubai World Cup win, despite a slipping saddle. Handled superbly by veteran trainer Art Sherman, the five-year-old was given plenty of time to recover from those exertions and has returned a better horse than ever for it.

That he is better than ever is a good thing – he will certainly need to be to see off the young pretender Arrogate. With low-key wins in a maiden and a pair of optional claimers to his name, Arrogate went into August’s Travers Stakes a relatively ignored 12/1 shot. What happened next certainly ensured Arrogate wouldn’t be ignored again – he simply demolished a field of some of the best three-year-olds around, going straight to the lead and pulling clear to win by thirteen and a half lengths. On the flipside, the the inside did look to be favoured on the day, and up with the speed was definitely the place to be, but the final time seemed to fully vindicate the performance. The big question is whether one so inexperienced can go toe-to-toe with a battle-hardened warrior such as California Chrome and come out of it unscathed.

The pace is likely to be quicker than anything Arrogate has ever faced before, and with the speedy Melatonin also in the field, this could well be an absolute burn-up through the first half of the race. That should suit Frosted, who himself produced one of the most remarkable performances of the year when destroying a very smart field in the one-mile Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont in June. Below that level when winning the Whitney and finishing third in the Woodward Stakes - both over a furlong further - the suspicion is that Frosted just isn’t quite at the same level as his two main rivals around two turns.

There are quite a few in the race who will look to pick up the pieces if the main protagonists go too quickly – last year’s runner-up Effinex and Keen Ice being just two, but the one that makes plenty of appeal from an each-way perspective is Hoppertunity. Generally a stone-cold closer, don’t expect to see him early, but he is high-class on his day when things set up well, and he looks to have been ignored in the betting. Let’s not forget he finished third to California Chrome (and ahead of Frosted) in the Dubai World Cup, and is seldom likely to get a race run to suit better than this one.

In summary, a fast pace looks assured, and California Chrome is by far the best equipped of these to deal with red-hot internal fractions and still produce his best form. The jury is out on Arrogate in that regard, but we could see something really special if he is able to keep going through what are sure to be lung-busting sectionals. While California Chrome is the most likely winner, an each-way bet on Hoppertunity, who looks likely to get an ideal set-up, is recommended.

If the Classic is the main course on a sumptuous menu, then the courses that precede it look similarly tasty, in particular the Mile and the Turf. In the Mile, Limato has to stretch his suspect stamina out for another furlong to see off the Queen of the home team, Tepin. Throw in Aidan O’Brien’s Alice Springs and this has a highly competitive look to it.

From a ratings perspective, Limato looks the one to side with, although the juice has very much gone out of his price on this side of the pond. As a consequence, it could be worth siding with another Aidan O’Brien representative, Hit It A Bomb, whose spectacular win in last year’s Turf Juvenile is still relatively fresh in the memory. It takes a bit of a leap of faith to back him on what he’s shown in a truncated campaign this year, but the addition of Lasix could see him start to get back on track. In a race that ought to be run at a sound pace, he is worth a small each-way bet at big odds.

The Turf also looks a race to savour, and has been given an extra layer of intrigue with Found now taking in this race rather than the much more ambitious project of the Classic. Highland Reel makes up the other half of a twin Coolmore assault, while the home team is headed by another familiar name in ex-European Flintshire – now trained in the US by Chad Brown. Other Euro representation comes from Mondialiste and Ulysses, although both will have to take their form to a new level to feature among the main protagonists.

Strictly on weight-adjusted ratings, Found is the one to beat, and she has followed a very similar path to this race as she did when winning last year, although whether conditions will be quite as much in her favour as they were at Keeneland remains to be seen. However, the lightning-quick turf will suit Flintshire down to the ground, and Chad Brown has injected a lethal turn of foot into a horse who had looked very much a grinder when trained in Europe. Ignore his last run - a slowly-run affair on sticky, rain-softened ground was never going to see him to best effect - and he looks well worth siding with here.

Recommendations:

Back Flintshire in the Turf

Back Hit It A Bomb each-way in the Mile 

Back Hoppertunity each-way in the Classic