Belmont Stakes: Stradivari can hit all the right notes

Outside of the Breeders’ Cup meeting, Saturday’s Belmont Stakes card is probably the highest-quality race day staged in North America. With a stellar menu of six Grade 1 races, highlighted by the Belmont Stakes itself, the whole day is simply superb. Here, we’ll take a breeze through the all the Grade 1s on the card and try to highlight a few decent bets.

Acorn Stakes (1m, Dirt) – 17:39 BST

The opening Grade 1 of the evening features impressive Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia, who is likely to go off a short-priced favourite. She bounced back from a below-par effort in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in April to run out a convincing winner of the fillies’ classic under the Churchill Downs twin spires. Go Maggie Go was a similarly impressive winner of Pimlico’s Black-Eyed Susan Stakes last time, and looks to be the main danger to Cathryn Sophia.

Ogden Phipps Stakes (8.5f, Dirt) – 18:52 BST

A good renewal, and one which has a particularly competitive look to it. Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand with Morning Line favourite Curalina and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Stopchargingmaria representing his powerful stable. Curalina was a revelation last time, running out a seven-and-half-length winner of the La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs. That effort was a career-best from Curalina, and puts her right in the mix.

Stopchargingmaria returned with a runner-up finish over seven furlongs last time, but is better over further, and should step forward on that effort. A repeat of her Distaff win makes her a strong contender. Forever Unbridled and Sheer Drama are also Grade 1 winners and are not easily dismissed in what is a super race. However, the one that makes most appeal is Cavorting, who was very impressive when landing the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes at Belmont last time. That was Cavorting’s first attempt beyond seven furlongs since the early days of her career and she seemed to relish the added distance. She looks the value play in this contest.

Just a Game Stakes (1m, Turf) – 20:58 BST

Won last year by Royal Ascot-bound Tepin, the Just a Game Stakes showcases the best of North America’s miling fillies and mares - a division that isn’t the strongest when shorn of Mark Casse’s high-class Breeders’ Cup Mile winner. With Tepin otherwise-engaged on the eastern side of the Atlantic, a field of thirteen line up in what is now a very winnable contest.

UK-based trainer Martyn Meade has been quick to spot the opportunity that has arisen, and is represented by Irish Rookie, whose home form gives her a strong chance. While her draw in stall nine could have been a little better, it is far from insurmountable, and she looks well worth a bet here. My Miss Sophia and ex-Irish Faufiler are others to consider, but with a Morning Line forecast of 10/1, Irish Rookie is the one to be on.

Metropolitan Handicap (1m, Dirt) – 21:41 BST

The ‘Met Mile’ is always a fantastic race, and has been won by some of North America’s  highest-class horses down the years – Quality Road and Ghostzapper to name but two in recent times. This year’s field, while possibly lacking a bit of the quality of some renewals, lacks for nothing in competitiveness, and Frosted is a worthy favourite. Sloane Avenue was due to represent Jeremy Noseda, but is now an absentee with a quarter crack, which robs the race of a little bit of interest from a European perspective. One place ahead of Sloane Avenue when fourth in the Godolphin Mile last time was Frosted’s stable companion Marking, and while he is a highly-strung individual, he has more than enough ability to take this. The key to Marking is how well he handles the preliminaries – if he can stay calm before the start, he could well be a big price at about 8/1. Sometimes a slow starter, Marking’s wide draw in thirteen should actually help rather than hinder.

Manhattan Stakes (10f, Turf) – (22:37 BST)

Now in the care of North America’s foremost turf trainer Chad Brown, this is all about Flintshire and how well he handles returning from a layoff over a trip that is arguably short of his best. Second in the last two renewals of the Arc, Flintshire sets a very high standard for these rivals to aim at and really ought to win at what is likely to be a short price. Those aiming to oppose Flintshire will point to a record that contains more seconds than firsts, but most of those runner-up finishes came against a much higher quality of opponent than he faces here. With upwards of 9 lb in hand on Timeform ratings, Flintshire should get the job done with a minimum of fuss.

Belmont Stakes (12f, Dirt) – (23:37 BST)

If not for Nyquist, we would now be heading into the Belmont Stakes ready to hail a second Triple Crown winner in as many years, Exaggerator setting a clear standard amongst this year’s field. A late-running second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator turned the tables on his old foe in a sloppy-track running of the Preakness last time. With no Nyquist in the Belmont line up, Exaggerator is a worthy favourite, his pedigree also giving plenty of hope that he should handle the added distance. The pick of his form has come on wet tracks, but Exaggerator clearly handles most conditions and will be tough to beat.

However, Stradivari is no forlorn hope on pedigree, and having been put up as a bet in this column for the Preakness, is well worth another chance. A combination of the conditions and Stradivari’s inexperience both counted against him when only fourth behind Exaggerator at Pimilico, and he is taken to start fulfilling his massive potential.

Recommendations:

Back Cavorting in the Ogden Phipps Stakes

Back Irish Rookie in the Just a Game Stakes

Back Marking in the Metropolitan Handicap

Back Stradivari in the Belmont Stakes