Belmont Stakes Preview: Let the Heart rule the head

Belmont Stakes day has evolved rapidly over the last few years and is now rightly hailed as just about the best day of North American racing outside of the Breeders’ Cup. With no less than eight Grade 1 races on the card, the Belmont Stakes itself is in danger of losing centre stage this year, particularly as there is no Triple Crown on the line. That’s not to say the big race lacks interest, far from it in fact, as a field of ten three-year-olds attempt to stretch their stamina out over the testing mile and a half.

It’s no surprise to see Tacitus, a son of Tapit (sire of three Belmont Stakes winners), has been installed favourite on the back of fine third (promoted from fourth) in the roughhouse that was the Kentucky Derby. Shuffled back in the early stages, Tacitus was finishing to good effect at Churchill Downs, suggesting that the Belmont trip should be well within his compass. The winner of his two starts prior to the Derby, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Tampa Bay Derby, Bill Mott’s charge still has plenty of upside and should prove tough to beat.

Maximum Security wins the 145th @KentuckyDerby! #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/AZqRv1M3ea

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 4, 2019

Preakness winner War of Will, the only Belmont entrant to have contested both previous legs of the Triple Crown, is next in the betting, but he probably has a bit more of a doubt over this trip than Tacitus. One of the chief sufferers in the interference caused by Maximum Security at Churchill Downs, War of Will put that run behind him with a gutsy win at Pimlico last time. The drop back in trip seemed to suit ideally there, suggesting that this step back up to what is considered a marathon distance in America may not be ideal. His pedigree also casts a doubt over his ability to get this trip, and at around 2/1, it’s not hard to look elsewhere.

Everfast sprung something of a surprise when runner-up to War of Will at big odds in the Preakness having been well beaten on his previous three outings. He got a long way back in there but benefitted from the strong pace to come through and grab second. Another fast pace will probably be needed here if he’s to be a genuine contender.

The Japanese challenger Master Fencer ran a fine race in the Kentucky Derby to eventually be beaten only four lengths having trailed the field early. He races as though this trip should suit and will have his backers at double-figure odds. However, a small note of caution needs to be issued as he has looked quirky in the mornings, often needing to be roused vigorously during workouts, and his temperament is something to keep an eye on going forward.

Bourbon War, eighth in the Preakness, gets the services of Mike Smith in the saddle, and for that reason alone is worth a second look. The blinkers are removed now, and being a son of Tapit, he should have little problem with the trip.

Sir Winston is another who has the ability to contend, his good run when second in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at this track last time putting him in with shout. The time was decent that day and this is a race often used as a prep for the Belmont. However, it is the third-place finisher from that contest, Intrepid Heart, who may be of most interest. Trained by three-time Belmont Stakes winner Todd Pletcher, Intrepid Heart stumbled at the start in the Peter Pan and ultimately did well to finish as close as he did. Another sired by Tapit, this trip should bring out the best in Pletcher’s runner, and the sire/trainer combo makes him very enticing at a big price. Throw in the fact that Intrepid Heart is still unexposed after just three starts, and he makes plenty of appeal in a race where the market leaders are short enough.

Congratulations to Global Campaign who won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. Trained by Stanley Hough's and ridden by @luissaezpty. pic.twitter.com/aOMGDHKz1G

— TVG (@TVG) May 11, 2019

It’s hard to know where to begin look for bets on the rest of the card given the amount of quality on offer, but course specialist Firenze Fire makes plenty of appeal in what is a cracking renewal of the Metropolitan Handicap a few hours prior to the Belmont. With the likes of McKinzie, Thunder Snow, Coal Front and Mitole in opposition, this race looks a mouth-watering prospect, and the likely strong pace should enable Firenze Fire to sit a good trip just on the heels of the leaders.

McKinzie, for the Baffert/Smith combination is a worthy favourite, and he probably has a little less to prove than second favourite Mitole, who is unproven over further than 7f. Dual Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow is a fascinating contender for Godolphin, but he may find this trip sharp enough nowadays, though is likely to be finishing to good effect. Coal Front is another to be feared, but the suspicion is that he’s a little short of Grade 1 class, and might just be exposed against this level of opposition.

Recommendations:

Back Firenze Fire in the Metropolitan Handicap

Back Intrepid Heart each-way in the Belmont Stakes