Belmont Derby and Oaks Preview: Sit on the Fence

Belmont Park takes centre stage in the USA this weekend with a pair of Grade 1s, the Belmont Derby and Oaks, highlighting a cracking Saturday card. Somewhat surprisingly, Chad Brown has yet to win the Belmont Derby (first run in 2014), while he has saddled the winner of the fillies’ equivalent three times in the same period. If you include the previous incarnation of the Belmont Oaks (formerly the Garden City Stakes), Brown has trained five of the last seven winners of the race.

As you’d expect, America’s foremost turf trainer holds a strong hand once more, fielding three representatives, headed by last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Newspaperofrecord, who looked a potential superstar as a two-year-old. While the wheels haven’t completely come off this year, it’s fair to say they are creaking somewhat, as she has a been a fair way below the level she set last year in her two outings to date. Beaten by stablemate Cambier Parc last time - another of Brown’s runners in this contest – Newspaperofrecord needs to prove she has trained on before being recommended as a bet. Chad Brown’s third runner in the Oaks, Café Americano, is unbeaten in a pair of starts, but will get a big test of her class in this contest.

European representation comes via Aidan O’Brien’s Just Wonderful and Coral Beach, who are joined by the French-trained Olendon. In form terms, Just Wonderful shades her stable companion, though there is only a pound between them on Timeform ratings. However, both may have to go some to match Olendon, who was beaten just a length by a potential star in Siyarafina in the Prix Saint Alary at Longchamp last time. While Siyarafina was below her best in the French Oaks next time, her potential remains intact, and Olendon’s second to her in the Saint Alary looks just about the best piece of current form on offer in here.

Decisive – Siyarafina wins the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at @paris_longchamp… pic.twitter.com/dW7FDa1EWC

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 26, 2019

Of the others, Concrete Rose is worth taking notice of, her dominant win over Newspaperofrecord in the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes at Churchill Downs in May putting her firmly in the reckoning. However, that was Newspaperofrecord’s first outing of the year and she failed to settle in front, so that form may be worth taking with a pinch of salt, for all that Concrete Rose does possess a progressive profile.

There is a bigger field lining up for the Belmont Derby than the Oaks, and the prospect of potential trouble in running needs to be factored in. For that reason alone it may be worth swerving Chad Brown’s four runners, at least two of which are priced on the short side. Such is Brown’s reputation nowadays that it is tough to get value about any of his representatives in top-level turf contests, and the percentage call at current prices is to look elsewhere. International runners are well represented again in here, with Cape of Good Hope and Blenheim Palace challenging from Ireland, while the Japanese field Master Fencer, who has shown smart form in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

Given the open nature of this race, it may well be worth taking a flyer on Master Fencer, who looks far too big at current odds of 25/1. While it’s true his best form has coincided with a switch to dirt, he is probably best not judged too harshly on a pair of turf runs he posted in maidens last year, as he could simply be a much-improved performer now. His pedigree has strong turf influences and his running style seems much more suited to turf than dirt (a hold-up performer with a good finishing kick). In an open-looking contest, a chance is taken that Master Fencer can outrun his odds, and he is worth backing each-way.

Recommendations:

Back Olendon in the Belmont Oaks

Back Master Fencer each-way in the Belmont Derby