Ante-post Preview: The Oaks

It is always tricky taking a long-range view at a particular race, the main aim being to hopefully pick out some value, but it doesn’t always go to plan, and the Oaks in particular is a complex contest to solve. Fillies can often progress at a rapid rate of knots – last year’s winner Enable a prime example – and it’s entirely possible we haven’t even seen this year’s Oaks winner yet, but what we have seen are a handful of very exciting prospects who have the potential to make a real impact come June.

Two for the boys in blue

Where better place to start than with Magic Lily, a daughter of Derby winner New Approach out of the 2011 Oaks winner Dancing Rain – it’s safe to say she is bred for the job. She achieved a lot in a short space of time last season, making a winning debut over a mile at Newmarket in September, before finishing third to Laurens in the Fillies’ Mile just 20 days later. Her trainer Charlie Appleby clearly has a high opinion of her, supplementing her for a Group 1 so soon after her debut win, and that experience will no doubt aid her development, shaping even at that point as though she’ll relish middle distances this season.

Godolphin and Appleby also have Wild Illusion who is also prominent in the betting following her win in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly last time. Appleby was again rewarded for his decision to supplement and, on her breeding alone – by Dubawi out of a useful staying mare by Monsun – it perhaps pays testament to her ability that she was able to win a Group 1 over a mile at two years. There was an element of her getting the run of the race that day, but she will be well suited by middle distances this year, and should have more to offer.

Laurens doesn’t have the same fancy pedigree as Magic Lily, but it was hard not to be impressed by her achievements last season, winning three of her four starts. She was admittedly a little fortunate to beat September in the Fillies’ Mile, seen to maximum effect on the front end and hugging the stands rail, but it was a smart performance nevertheless, and a smart one too. Her stallion's best progeny to date have largely been best at up to a mile, but there's a lot of stamina on the distaff side and she gives the impression that she'll stay further and, though she may be lacking the potential of some, her attitude will always stand her in good stead.

Laurens (nearest to camera) just beats September to land the bet365 Fillies' Mile

Fast Results ▶️https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/bzAxf40zK1

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) October 13, 2017

Another for Ballydoyle?

The Aidan O’Brien-trained September burst on to the scene winning a seven-furlong maiden at Leopardstown in early-June and produced a smart effort to maintain her unbeaten record with an impressive performance in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, recording an excellent Timefigure. However, she is a rather neat filly, and she disappointed on her next two starts in soft ground before bouncing back in the Fillies’ Mile. She looked the real deal again back on a firmer surface, clearly the best filly in the race that day, and she would have won comfortably with a clear run. Her run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf at Del Mar on her final start didn’t get to the bottom of her either, and she's a high-class prospect heading into this season.

O’Brien also trains the current ante-post favourite Happily, who was kept relatively busy last season but managed to win two Group 1s, including the Moyglare and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly. It is probably best to ignore her final start where she finished last of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, meeting trouble in-running early and never positioned to challenge thereafter, not persevered with by Ryan Moore once her chance had gone. Happily undoubtedly remains with potential this season, but she is a sister to the dual 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles, and at this stage she appeals as more a Guineas than Oaks type, not as stoutly bred as her stablemate September.

The same can be said for Clemmie – a sister to another dual 2000 Guineas winner Churchill – who became the first progeny of Galileo to win a Group 1 over six furlongs in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. She rather broke the mould last season doing what she did at sprint trips, and is expected to improve further once stepping up to a mile, but whether she will stay the Oaks trip is another question, and not one O’Brien is sure to want answered.

Clemmie wins the The @JuddmonteFarms Cheveley Park Stakes providing Aidan O'Brien with his 19th Group 1 win of the season pic.twitter.com/aZvwoOjjiG

— Newmarket Racecourse (@NewmarketRace) September 30, 2017

Under the radar

Contingent is bred to be smart and she looked something out of the ordinary as she justified strong support to win on her debut over a mile at Leopardstown in October, quickening up to lead over a furlong out and readily putting the race to bed. She is by the magnificent Frankel, whose progeny are beginning to show more stamina than perhaps was first expected, and she couldn’t be in better hands. The same can be said for Highgarden, another once-raced winner who represents last year’s winning trainer John Gosden. She also looked a good prospect in justifying short odds on her debut over a mile at Nottingham in October, comfortably better than her rivals, and she looks a likely type to pitch up in an Oaks trial in the spring.

Conclusion

There isn’t any standout filly in the Oaks picture as yet, but there is plenty of collateral form to go on, and some exciting prospects, too. Perhaps none more so than Magic Lily, who took a big jump forward from the form of her wide-margin maiden win in the Fillies’ Mile just 20 days later. She’s a good-topped filly, who will make a three-year-old, and given her pedigree and potential, she is well worth taking a chance on at odds of around 20/1. September looks the obvious one from Ballydoyle at this point, herself out of an Irish and Yorkshire Oaks winner, but she isn’t the biggest, and could find herself overtaken by some more later maturing types this coming season.

Recommendation:

Back Magic Lily at 20/1 in the Oaks at Epsom on 1^st June 2018