Ante-post Preview: The Derby

Just like the previous two parts of this series – the 2000 and 1000 Guineas – the best place to start talking about the ante-post Derby market is with Aidan O’Brien, such is his stranglehold on Flat racing and particularly the Classics in recent years.

O’Brien has won the Derby six times in all, four times since 2012, and a quick glance at the current Derby market makes you realise what a strong chance he has of winning Flat racing’s Blue Riband for a record-equalling seventh time.

First or second string?

As I mentioned in our 2000 Guineas ante-post preview, Saxon Warrior is currently towards the fore in both the Guineas and Derby markets having won all three of his two-year-old starts, including the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on his final outing. On pedigree, Saxon Warrior appeals as more a Derby type, by Japanese mile and a half champion Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare who was beaten under four lengths in the Oaks. That theory is backed up by how well he stayed a mile at two, and it’s possible he is more in the mould of Camelot, who used the Guineas as more than a stepping stone towards the Derby in 2012. You can see why Saxon Warrior is a clear favourite and he has plenty going for him.

He's done it! Aidan O'Brien - WORLD RECORD HOLDER as Saxon Warrior wins at Doncaster - Watch all the reaction on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/GpwkPcZc9U

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 28, 2017

Stablemate The Pentagon finished third in the Racing Post Trophy and was admittedly overshadowed by Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion at all stages, particularly in the betting – he was notably weak the majority of the day – but the most pertinent point to take from the race is that he was gradually gaining on them by the end. Related to the smart mile and three quarter winner Vadamar (who stayed two and a half miles), The Pentagon is blessed with a much stouter pedigree than either Saxon Warrior or Roaring Lion, and he has got the physical size and scope to make a three-year-old; whether he should be more than double the price of Saxon Warrior at this stage is questionable.

You only have to look at last season’s 1000 Guineas winner Winter – who was a general 33/1 shot in the weeks leading up to the race – to realise it is folly to ignore the Ballydoyle runners at bigger prices, and there are several unexposed types currently lurking in the ante-post market. Amedeo Modigliani made a fine impression in two starts last season, winning a heavy-ground maiden by five and a half lengths when last seen in August. His rider didn’t have to get serious with him at any stage, winning with plenty in hand, and this horse bred to be suited by middle distances this season. Gustav Klimt missed a crack at the Dewhurst after suffering a minor setback towards the end of last season, and O’Brien stated that he would be trained for the Guineas this coming season. He showcased a lot of speed last year but, on breeding, he should stay further than a mile this year and is another to enter the reckoning. Kew Gardens relished the step up to a mile and a quarter when winning the Zetland Stakes on his final start and will stay a mile and a half this season, though perhaps isn’t open to as much progress as some of his stablemates.  

Gosden’s Lion should stay

John Gosden won his second Derby with Golden Horn in 2015 and current Clarehaven resident Roaring Lion showed a lot of ability last season. His pedigree offers hope of him staying the Derby trip, as his sire Kitten's Joy had a lot of stamina for an American racehorse (runner-up in Breeders' Cup Turf), while his dam was placed in a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter, though connections are reportedly plotting a path to the Guineas first.

One for Godolphin

Ghaiyyath cost a whopping €1,100,000 as a foal and, though he has quite a way to go to repay that fee, he made a most encouraging start to his career last season, winning two of his three starts, including the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. He showed significant progression on every start and, bred to come into his own over middle distances this year, he remains an exciting prospect. His trainer Charlie Appleby has also recently reported that he has wintered well and that the Derby is his main target.

"He showed us today what he has been showing us at home" Read more about exciting Newmarket winner Ghaiyyath ▶️ https://t.co/VxYqmkH7ln pic.twitter.com/LVWVvmY9OD

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) September 28, 2017

Conclusion

It may be a bit boring but, it’s hard not to think that Aidan O’Brien is in a fantastic position heading into the Derby given the wealth of talent he has at his disposal, but which horse will take high rank as the season unfolds? Saxon Warrior achieved the most as a two-year-old and deserves to be a clear favourite at this stage, but the gap between him and The Pentagon shouldn’t be so big. The latter had a three-month lay-off to overcome and shaped well when beaten two and three quarter lengths by his stablemate in the Racing Post Trophy last time. His stamina was beginning to kick in when the race was all but over for him and, given his stout pedigree, it’s not cut-and-dried that he'll be a mere second or third string for Ballydoyle by the time of the Derby.

Recommendation:

Back The Pentagon at 10/1 to win the 2018 Derby at Epsom