Ante-post Preview: 2000 Guineas

Aidan O’Brien is now the most successful trainer in the 2000 Guineas, having recorded his eighth win in the race with Churchill last year. That victory kick-started a record-breaking season for O’Brien, in which he surpassed Bobby Frankel’s record of training more than 25 Group 1 winners in a calendar year – O’Brien ended 2017 with 28 winners at the highest level. A phenomenal feat, the Ballydoyle trainer will no doubt be out to beat his own record in 2018, starting with the first classic of the season.

Another for Aidan?

It was Saxon Warrior who clinched the record for O’Brien when winning the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October, beating Roaring Lion by a neck in a race that produced one of the best pieces of two-year-old form in 2017. It completed a perfect season for Saxon Warrior, a tall colt with a powerful action, who looked a budding three-year-old at every point last year. He is currently vying for favouritism for the 2000 Guineas with his two stablemates Gustav Klimt and U S Navy Flag but, while there’s no doubt he’s a very exciting prospect, Saxon Warrior appeals as more of a Derby than Guineas type; by Japanese mile and a half champion Deep Impact, out of a Galileo mare who finished fifth in the Oaks (beaten under four lengths).

U S Navy Flag did nothing but improve with racing last term, winning both the Middle Park and Dewhurst at Newmarket before finishing well held in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (dirt) on his final start. He should stay the one mile trip on pedigree (dam a winner up to a mile and a quarter) and his sister Roly Poly progressed well as a three-year-old winning three Group 1s, but Ballydoyle perhaps have others who are open to more improvement, so he makes little appeal at the prices.

One of those could be Gustav Klimt, a two-time winner last season, including the Superlative Stakes on the July Course. He did really well under the circumstances to win that day, losing his place and momentum when hampered over two furlongs out, before staying on strongly to lead in the final 50 yards, showing a good attitude and deserving extra credit (we rated him as value for a three-length win). Gustav Klimt is another who will be suited by further than a mile in time, but he strikes as Ballydoyle’s best Guineas contender at the time of writing, and Aidan O’Brien stated that he will be trained for the 2000 Guineas after an injury ruled him out of the Dewhurst.

Gustav Klimt sprints to victory at Newmarket pic.twitter.com/hc4ylsnSL1

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) July 15, 2017

First win for Gosden?

Roaring Lion is a general fourth favourite for the race behind the Ballydoyle trio, along with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Expert Eye. Roaring Lion may have lost his unbeaten record when narrowly denied by Saxon Warrior at Doncaster, but it was hard not to be impressed with the change of gear he showed, charging clear of Saxon Warrior entering the final furlong. However, he made the same left-handed shift that nearly cost him the Royal Lodge when in front, a flaw that John Gosden needs to iron out if he’s going to be a classic contender come May. Nevertheless, his ability shone through above all, and he clearly has an engine. Though he will likely stay the Derby trip on pedigree – his sire Kitten's Joy had a lot of stamina for an American racehorse (runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Turf), while his dam was placed in a Grade 1 over a mile and a quarter – connections are plotting a path to the Guineas first.

Good on the eye

Golan in 2011 was Sir Michael Stoute’s last winner of the 2000 Guineas, but Expert Eye put himself right in the mix when running out a seriously impressive winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in August, looking something out of the ordinary as he scooted four and a half lengths clear of some promising rivals. There was clearly something amiss with him on his next start when beaten over 10 lengths by U S Navy Flag in the Dewhurst, and he was reportedly lame after the race. Expert Eye had looked so good at Goodwood beforehand, and Stoute went on record to say he’s the best two-year-old he has trained for a while, so granted he gets to Newmarket in one piece, he will be a leading contender.

"I'm excited by him, he's brimful of promise" Sir Michael Stoute thrilled as Expert Eye shines @Goodwood_Races ▶️ https://t.co/ybpHas3Ofh pic.twitter.com/tV7asg72ly

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) August 1, 2017

Potential superstars

Some others to mention at bigger prices include the Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned pair Elarqam and Emaraaty. The first-named is a beautifully-bred son of Frankel who is trained by Mark Johnston, also the trainer of his dam Attraction. He has won both of his starts to date in good style and looks an exciting prospect, very much the type to train on (good-topped colt) and make a three-year-old. Emaraaty also boasts an excellent pedigree and looked smart when tearing a Newbury maiden apart on his second start, recording an excellent timefigure. He found the Dewhurst coming too soon on his final start, not mature enough to cope with the demands of the race at that stage in his career, but this well-made, attractive colt should have plenty more to offer this year.

Conclusion

As the market suggests, the 2000 Guineas looks wide open at present and, though it is a risky proposition committing to a bet at this stage, there are several who have the scope to trade significantly shorter nearer the time. Expert Eye was as short as 3/1 following his devastating victory in the Vintage Stakes and, despite failing to fire in the Dewhurst when last seen, he was reportedly lame after the race and that clearly wasn’t his running. The form of his Goodwood success looks rock solid, and Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t kept it a secret as to what regard he holds the horse, so providing everything goes to plan, 10/1 could look rather big come May.  

Recommended bet:

Back Expert Eye at 10/1 in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on 5th May 2018

Read our 1000 Guineas Ante-post Preview