Ante-post Preview: 1000 Guineas

Hard to cramp Clemmie

Aidan O’Brien’s record-breaking 2017 saw him take both of the first British classics of the season on the first weekend of May and a look at the markets for the 2018 2000 and 1000 Guineas would suggest that he has big chance of repeating the same feat this time around, having the first three in the ante-post betting for both races at present.

On Timeform ratings there isn’t much separating 1000 Guineas first and second favourites Clemmie and Happily (2 lb, both still have a ‘p’), but it is well worth pointing out that Clemmie’s rating comes from her performance in the Cheveley Park Stakes over six furlongs. It is almost unheard of for a Galileo to shine over so short a trip and Clemmie could be capable of significantly better once she tackles a mile, the final 100 yards of her most recent victory showing off a little of her potential stamina. She’s the 3/1 ante-post favourite for the Guineas but in truth there isn’t a better prospect for the race in Britain or Ireland.

The very promising filly Clemmie wins the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes under Ryan Moore at newmarket racecourse.#DubaiRacing pic.twitter.com/gONRSpCfVF

— Dubai Racing Channel (@DubaiRacingTV) September 30, 2017

Happily gets her rating from her win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly (over a mile) so perhaps lacks the potential of Clemmie in regards trip, but she is related to two Guineas winners in Gleneagles and Marvellous and would have to be highly respected if taking in a Guineas of her own.

The third Ballydoyle filly at the head of the Guineas betting is September, an impressive winner of the Chesham at Royal Ascot in June (recording a very good timefigure). It took September a couple of goes to better that form but she did eventually in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, looking unlucky not to win returned to faster ground (disappointing efforts had come on soft). She ended her campaign with a good third at the Breeders’ Cup and is another who could be capable of better next season, though her strength in the finish in both of her last starts suggests that middle distances could well be more suitable for her next season; by Deep Impact and out of an Irish/Yorkshire Oaks winner.

Dangers to Ballydoyle

The winner of the Fillies’ Mile was the Karl Burke-trained Laurens, who did nothing but progress with each of her four starts last season. She is out of a stayer (dam won over 14.5f) and showed plenty of stamina/gameness to fend off all challengers at Newmarket, so like September could be one for longer trips in the coming season.

The shortest-priced of the French runners is Polydream, who would probably be the most interesting prospect of the fillies that contested the Prix Marcel Boussac (which also includes Godolphin’s Wild Illusion and Ballydoyle’s Magical). Polydream lost her unbeaten record in the Boussac but emerged with plenty of credit, doing well to snatch second on the line and not as ideally placed as the well-ridden Wild Illusion. Trainer Freddy Head reportedly has both the 1000 Guineas and the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches under consideration for her in 2018, but though her owners (the Wertheimer brothers) have had plenty of success in Britain with the likes of Goldikova and Solow, they tend to prefer to run their horses in French classics as opposed to the British.

One of the most fascinating outsiders has to be the imposing Alpha Centauri, second in an Albany Stakes which has worked out very well (Clemmie back in seventh), pulling clear with the winner Different League (who looks an out-and-out sprinter even if her pedigree suggests otherwise). Alpha Centauri was sent off favourite for the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her next start (behind Happily) but ultimately disappointed after travelling best. Her trainer was quick to blame the soft ground for that defeat and though it is a little concerning that she didn’t make her next intended target (the Fillies’ Mile), she remains an exciting three-year-old prospect, the fact that she was able to run to such a big rating in the Albany boding particularly well given that she is by Mastercraftsman.

Another winner for France... 🇫🇷

Different League was different class in the Albany Stakes - just pic.twitter.com/TvltT8ayND

— Ascot Racecourse (@Ascot) June 23, 2017

Conclusion

Though she’s currently favourite Clemmie does appear to have an outstanding chance in the 2018 1000 Guineas, sure to improve for the step up to beyond six furlongs for the first time and already holding the other principals on two-year-old form. At bigger prices the strapping Alpha Centauri is worth a small bet. She’s a little risky given that she disappointed when we last saw her and then missed her intended engagement in the Fillies’ Mile, but like Clemmie she should be even better at further than six furlongs on pedigree and it’s to her credit that she’s achieved what she has at sprint trips.

Recommendations:

Back Clemmie at 3/1 in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on 6th May 2018

Back Alpha Centauri at 25/1 in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on 6th May 2018

Read our 2000 Guineas Ante-post Preview