All-Weather Sprint Championship: Timefigures Preview

The best race on the fifth All Weather Championships card is undoubtedly the Sprint, with six of the top 10 highest rated runners from the meeting all running in the race, which we'll analyse using early position data and sectionals, both available to Timeform customers.

Kachy is Timeform top rated on 131 (adjusted), followed by last year’s winner Kimberella (129) and Intisaab (128), all of whom contested the listed Cleves Stakes in early February. Kachy won by a short head from Kimberella, with Intisaab back in fourth, Gulliver (5th), Double Up (7th) and Gracious John (12th of 12).

Kachy overcame stall 11 to get a prominent position (EPF, early position figure, 2) behind the leader that day, Kimberella was sat slightly further back in midfield (EPF 3), while Intisaab was held up (EPF 4). The pace was sound, resulting in a finishing speed of 101.5% (close to par).

Where can they be expected to race early?

Timeform's early position maps use a variety of factors, including past performances, recent performances, jockey, draw, among other factors, but perhaps crucially, they account for the other runners in the race.

It should be no surprise to see Gifted Master is the most likely leader from a decent draw in stall 3, but we can't be certain he will get the lead. According to our early position map, there is a 0.759 chance Gifted Master records an EPF 1 against these rivals, which would have been different had Caspian Prince run.

Kachy and Gracious John, from stalls 5 and 6 respectively, should find prominent positions, while there is a little more uncertainty about where Kimberella will race early. Having raced towards the rear in some of his races, he is expected to race in midfield/prominent position given there are a greater number of rivals here who race in rear more regularly. These include Atletico (stall 7) and Intisaab (stall 2) who should be found nearer last than first.

Where will they be two furlongs out?

So, we have a good idea of where runners are likely to be positioned early in the race, using the early position map, but how does this early position affect their position later in the race?

For this, we can use data available in Timeform’s Sectional Archives, which includes lengths behind at the sectional marker, sectional times (sectional marker to the finish), finishing speeds and sectional upgrades. At Lingfield, the sectional is the two-furlong pole, when runners are beginning to make their challenge. The visualisation below shows the probability distribution of how many lengths the horse will be behind at this point.

There is a good chance that Gifted Master will still be in front, but if he isn’t leading then he shouldn’t be far away. Kachy and Gracious John are most likely to be within 1.5 lengths of the lead. Kimberella can be expected to be between 1.5 and 4 lengths down, while Intisaab and Atletico are likely to have the most left to do, as they are expected to be between 2.5 and 5.5 lengths behind.

Intisaab and Atletico boast some of the fastest closing two furlongs at Lingfield; Atletico recorded a closing two furlongs of 21.19 over 5.03f last time, and carries a sectional flag horse going into the race, but he’ll probably have to run fast again, and hope some classy horses come back to him almost as quickly.

The pace forecast for the race is strong, which should mean a final time around 69.00sec and a decent timefigure, with the race finishing speed close to par. This would mean a final two furlongs of about 22.80sec for the winner; almost all have shown themselves capable of finishing fast, but in more slowly-run races.

Those in behind have less margin for error, so the likes of Atletico and Intisaab will have to run the final two furlongs in about 22.10sec and need those in front to finish slower than expected. This is the primary reason why those racing prominently are advantaged in many races, and especially sprints.

What is the best bet in the All-Weather Sprint Championships?

There is very little to knock the favourite Kachy, who should be well placed throughout, but there’s a good chance he will have to run faster than he did last time if he’s to win. Gifted Master could take some pegging back if fully fit, while last year’s winner Kimberella may have to come from further back than when chasing down Gracious John 12 months ago.

It's a third win in the #AWChamps Sprint for @RichardFahey. Kimberella scores decisively at @LingfieldPark: pic.twitter.com/XwgMUKE8zn

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) April 14, 2017

This year Gracious John should be able to sit a little off the lead, which could be more favourable, and he has shown himself capable of finishing very fast, so is worth a bet at 8/1. Despite the disadvantages Atletico is likely to face, he is overpriced at 14/1. He’ll need to finish fast and get a clear run, but he could handsomely repay his supporters who have been muttering “next time” on his last four starts, and he’s also worth backing in running if within four lengths of the leaders turning in.

Recommended Bets:

Back Gracious John at 11/1 in the All-Weather Sprint Championships

Back Atletico at 8/1 in the All-Weather Sprint Championships