Al Quoz Sprint: Hard to get away from Ertijaal

The Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint has reverted to his original distance of six furlongs this year, following six years being run over five furlongs. This is a slight concern for connections of the 15/8 favourite Ertijaal whose last five starts, including his career-best (now Timeform-rated 130) win in a Meydan Group 3 last month, have all seen him race prominently over the minimum trip. That said, Ertijaal has won three times over seven furlongs, as well as once over six furlongs, so the return to further may actually suit him—indeed, he was running on late when second to Australian raider Buffering in this race last year, which is his only defeat in his last seven outings.

Jungle Cat was two and three quarter lengths second to Ertijaal in a Group 3 at Meydan last time and didn’t appear to have any excuses. He probably isn’t in the same league as the winner, though he did prove just about better than ever (rated 121) when winning a big-field minor event next time. He’s a strong closer so, for him to have a chance of beating the favourite, he’ll be somewhat reliant on Final Venture (who has had a fine Carnival, winning twice, but was over six lengths behind Jungle Cat last time) applying early pressure to confirmed front runner Ertijaal. Jungle Cat was a length behind Ertijaal when fourth in this race last year.

Limato is the chief form threat to Ertijaal, and this race being over six furlongs is a big help to him. He ran well on his only try over five furlongs when second to Mecca’s Angel in the Nunthorpe at York last summer, and would have won an average or even a good renewal of that race, though the winner did possess an extra gear Limato couldn't go to, an overdrive that only five-furlong specialists can call on. Limato wasn’t at his best in the Breeders’ Cup Mile when last seen but, given his overall profile, it would be no surprise if he bounced straight back to the form that saw him win the July Cup and Prix de la Foret last season.

Hong Kong challenger Amazing Kids is clear third-best on the ratings, a high-class performer who was fourth (one place ahead of the Prix Maurice de Gheest winner Signs of Blessing) in the Group 1 Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin on his final outing last year and won a Group 3 handicap there in January. He wasn’t at his best when fourth last time and is another who’ll need a strong pace to chase down, as will Ballydoyle’s Washington DC. He more or less made race-to-race progress last year, while his blips in the Nunthorpe (no chance from his draw/position) and Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (over six and a half furlongs and probably better at five furlongs) were easy to forgive. He’d previously won two listed races and also hit the woodwork on several occasions, including when finishing like a train behind fellow three-year-old Marsha in the Prix de l’Abbaye, but his form suggests he’s best over five furlongs (form figures of 21212022 over that distance).

Limato will make sure Ertijaal doesn’t have this all his own way, but the latter showed top-class form when impressively winning a Group 3 last time, smashing the track record for good measure, and he’s hard to oppose with the return to six furlongs unlikely to pose a threat. The apparent market support for Amazing Kids at double-figure odds is interesting and he looks the potential each-way play.

Recommendation:

Back Ertijaal at 2/1 in the Al Quoz Sprint