2019 Grand National: Timeform's Weight-Adjusted Ratings

My memory isn’t what it once was, but I can’t recall being awoken by my clock radio blurting out Sonny & Cher’s “I Got You Babe” at 6am this morning, nor treading in an icy puddle on the way to work for that matter. In addition, I’d certainly have remembered if the fragrant Andie MacDowell had handed my morning mug of tea!

That said, there was more than a feeling of Groundhog Day when scanning the newly-released weights for the 2019 Grand National, with the lightly-raced outsiders Abolitionist and Noble Endeavor again heading the way on Timeform ratings at this early stage. Alas, our ante-post fingers were burned in 2018 as neither of the pair made the race itself, which just goes to show how much can change between now and April 6^th. That said, both remain of interest from a handicapping viewpoint as we shine the light on those who make up the top ten on Timeform ratings for now, bearing in mind that plenty may change in the weeks ahead.

2019 Grand National top ten on provisional Timeform weight-adjusted ratings

Abolitionist – Attractively handicapped if judged on his win in the 2017 Leinster National (form which worked out very well) for Ellmarie Holden, whilst his subsequent third in that year’s Irish Grand National offers plenty of hope he’ll cope with the longer trip at Aintree. An impressive hurdles win on his debut for Dr Richard Newland strongly suggests that he’s every bit as good as ever, protecting his chase mark in the process. He still needs to run in a chase this season (entered at Ascot this weekend) in order to qualify for run but, provided that all goes smoothly, he’s again very much one to be interested for his shrewd yard – which, of course, won the 2014 Grand National with a similar type in Pineau de Re.

Noble Endeavor – Missed the entire 2017/18 campaign, but potentially well handicapped on his consistent form in valuable staying handicap company prior to that lay-off and gained experience of the big Aintree fences when ninth in the Becher Chase in December. Clearly needs to step up on that form, but he was entitled to need the run and he forms part of a very strong Gordon Elliott team (22 entries).

Total Recall – Very smart performer who remains well-handicapped on the pick of his form, but he was badly let down by his jumping (nearly came down twice on the first circuit) when well fancied for the 2018 renewal and was similarly held back by a costly blunder on his most recent start.

Blaklion – Looked a natural over these fences when fourth in the 2017 National and then an impressive winner of the Becher Chase later that year. Things haven’t gone to plan since then (brought down first in 2018 National!) and difficult to assess after finishing down the field (including in the latest Becher) on both starts this term.

Folsom Blue – Another Gordon Elliott entry and would very much come into the reckoning should the ground come up testing, as stamina is very much his strong suit, as he proved when an unlucky fourth in the 2018 Irish National. Got outpaced at a vital stage when a staying-on fourth over hurdles at Sandown last time, which could prove an issue at Aintree unless the mud comes up.

Shattered Love – Very smart mare who is clearly best forgiven a rare off-day last time. Competitively handicapped, but not a certain stayer and her connections (trainer Elliott and owner Gigginstown House Stud) have plenty of other darts to throw.

Ultragold – An Aintree specialist who’s won the last two renewals of the Topham Chase, whilst he’s also posted fine placed efforts in the 2017 Grand Sefton Chase and 2018 Becher Chase. The latter revealed more stamina than previously shown (as did a respectable fifth over 29f at Warwick last time) and he should give his supporters another good run for their money over these fences.

Alpha des Obeaux – Heavy faller at the Chair in the 2018 National, which is hardly ideal, but he was going with zest close to the pace at the time and could be an interesting runner this time around, particularly as he looks better than ever following a switch to Gordon Elliott’s yard. His second under top weight in the Thyestes Chase already looks strong form.

Bless The Wings – Durable veteran who finished a fine third in 2018, but will do well to repeat that (let alone improve on it) now fourteen.

Ms Parfois – Bidding to become the first mare to win since Nickel Coin in 1951 and holds decent claims on her novice chase form from last season, which has been franked frequently this winter. Alas she didn’t do so herself when only sixth at Newbury on her reappearance, but respected if she can bounce back from that, particularly as stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

Selected others:

Of the others, the last two winners One For Arthur and Tiger Roll are clearly worth a mention. The former has, surprisingly, failed to complete on his two comeback runs this winter, which is clearly a worry for all that plenty of ability probably remains intact. Things have gone far more smoothly for Tiger Roll, who caught the eye with an encouraging fourth over Cheltenham’s cross-country course in November, but clearly has more on his plate from a 9 lb higher mark than last year.

The 2018 runner-up Pleasant Company is up 7 lb compared to last year and, as a result, there could be better options within the Willie Mullins’ ranks, notably the progressive Up For Review, who shaped better than the bare result suggests when third in the Thyestes Chase recently and remains unexposed over long distances (which should suit).

Welsh National winner Elegant Escape is another who’s open to further improvement granted a marathon test and would tick plenty of boxes should he turn up, though the Cheltenham Gold Cup is reportedly the main target for him now.

A couple of dangerous lurkers to note are Minella Rocco and The Last Samuri, who are potentially the best-handicapped runners among the 110 entries if judged on the pick of their older form. The former has proved very in-and-out since finishing runner-up in the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup and, although the extreme test of stamina should suit, his often suspect jumping could be an issue. There are no such worries on that score for The Last Samuri, who finished runner-up in the 2016 National and has twice been placed over the big fences since. Disappointing displays in the last two renewals of the National, though, does temper enthusiasm.

Recommended bets:

Abolitionist @ 33/1

Ultragold each-way @ 40/1

Alpha des Obeaux @ 40/1