2016 Flat Jockeys Championship: The story so far

In just under two weeks’ time, 169 days of blood, sweat and tears will reach its climax, and we will know the identity of this year’s Champion Flat Jockey.

It will bring to an end the second renewal of the revamped Jockeys Championship, which sees the season now begin on Guineas weekend at Newmarket, coming to a conclusion on Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday 15th October.

The idea behind the change was to make it more enticing to the likes of Ryan Moore - who, to put it simply, is seen as not being interested in grinding out results in low-grade affairs at either end of the old season – instead preferring to ply his trade at more lucrative events across the globe, such as the Dubai World Cup. It was feared in some camps though that the changes would deny horse racing fans the ‘edge of your seat’ action we’ve been treated to in recent years, such as the tussle in 2007 between Jamie Spencer and Seb Sanders – which went down to the very last race of the season.

Injury has again prevented Moore, widely regarded as the best around, from a shot at winning the title, but it hasn’t spoiled the excitement, with a race between last year’s champion Silvestre De Sousa, and the man converted from National Hunt, Jim Crowley, setting the sport alight in recent weeks. Crowley is well and truly turning the screw now as we head into the closing stages, and sits 11 wins clear of De Sousa at the time of writing – an incredible feat for a man available at 66/1 in places for the title at the beginning of July.

A look at the numbers shows how July proved to be a crucial period, with the red plot (Crowley) on the graph below showing how much ground was made up on the blue plot (De Sousa) in that period.

July started with a 12-day ban for De Sousa, who took the opportunity to take a break to Brazil with his family. It left the door wide open for someone to close the gap, and Crowley did exactly that, riding 10 winners by the time the Brazilian had returned to the saddle 13 days later. Crucially, though, it would be the next fortnight that would prove pivotal in changing fortunes. De Sousa initially capped his return with a treble – something which you can quite clearly see on the graph – but that, quite surprisingly, would be as good as it got for the next 12 days, with no more winners for the champion.

A winner would eventually come on day 13, ending a 56-ride barren run, but by that point the door had very much been opened to Crowley – who had chalked up 10 more winners. It was a telling period, and having calculated De Sousa’s strike rate against those rides, one where you would have expected him to have picked up around 10 winners. Of course, racing doesn’t work like that, but it certainly provided the title race with a new dimension.

Does that tell the full story, though?

A common concept about the title race is the idea that the jockey who amasses the most rides generally stands the best chance of winning the championship, and that stands largely true for this season – with only Luke Morris (686) having had more rides than Crowley (677) and De Sousa (683). So if both have largely had the same number of rides, is either finding themselves on better horses throughout the course of the season?

Fans of Formula One will be aware of the criticism of the sport, by which it is argued that the World Championship-winning driver is the man in the best car – but can the same be said for horse racing?

We calculated the average Timeform master ratings of all of Crowley’s and De Sousa’s rides this season so far, to see if either could credit any sort of advantage to wily jockey bookings. Somewhat surprisingly the average rating of rides for both stood at exactly 75 apiece, showing how immaculately level the playing field has been.

It ultimately has come down to fine margins, and if Crowley does indeed hold on to his current lead, he can credit his insatiable desire for a maiden title as the aspect that has gotten him over the line. He revealed in September that he had become “obsessed” with his pursuit of the title; which is a fitting line to finish on. It takes a person of a particular nature to willingly devote themselves to a commitment such as a challenge for the title; putting themselves through the mire both physically and emotionally for month after month, driving mile after mile, in search of ride after ride – but so many do it, without ever even getting there.

For one man though, it is just around the corner.